As 78 million aging baby boomers deal with more chronic conditions, the country is facing a serious shortage of physicians. Compounding the crisis is the fact that between 1985 and 2006, the percentage of physicians aged 55 and older climbed from 27 percent to 34 percent, according to statistics from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).  Approximately 250,000 active physicians are expected to retire between now and 2020.  These shortages are especially critical among surgeons and family medicine practitioners.

The doctor deficit has its roots in the 1980s and 1990s when medical schools capped their enrollments at 16,000 students per year because they believed that managed care would create a physician glut.  The exact opposite has happened and medical schools were “woefully wrong” in their assessment, according to Josef Fischer, chairman of surgery at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.  “It’s going to be tough in this situation to make it better.”

Accordingly, medical educators have identified the problem and are finally accepting more applicants.  During 2008, nearly 17,800 students started medical school — the largest class ever.  By 2015, medical schools hope to achieve a 30 percent increase in enrollment over 2002 levels.  Still, Fischer warns of “a perfect storm” forming, because it takes three to seven years to train physicians at a time when the number of senior citizens in the United States is growing fast.  With training for surgeons often exceeding seven years and few pre-med students focused on primary care as a career, additional enrollments are only a first step in the right direction.

Many doctors would prefer a career in primary medicine, focused on prevention and health, but the reality of medicine in today’s environment is that reimbursement for physician services is decreasing.  The healthcare system itself is discouraging the very best and brightest talent from pursuing primary care.  Fixing what is broken in the system at a time when prevention should be more important than ever requires fast action if we are to meet our needs in the next decade.