Posts Tagged ‘CDOs’

“The Giant Pool of Money”

Thursday, May 21st, 2009

$70 trillion dollars.  That’s all the money in the world, or to get technical, the subset of global dollarsavings known as fixed-income securities.  And it almost doubled from $36 trillion in just six years.  How did this happen?

The Federal Reserve presided over the creation of what we have learned (the hard way) is a monster of unregulated investment vehicles run amok, resulting in the global credit crisis.

In the words of National Public Radio’s international business reporter Adam Davidson, “What he (former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan) is saying is he’s going to keep the Fed Funds rate at the absurdly low level of one percent.  It tells every investor in the world:  you are not going to make any money at all on U.S. treasury bonds for a very long time.  Go somewhere else.  We can’t help you.  And so the global pool of money looked around for some low-risk, high-return investment.  And among the many things they put their money into, there was one thing they fell in love with.”

Investment companies fell in love with securitizing mortgages, bundling them into enormous pools – in some cases, pools of as many as 16 million loans — and selling them in shares to investors.  To make the pool of mortgages even larger, they created vehicles like adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), subprime mortgages and no-income, no-asset loans that allowed people to buy homes or take out home equity loans that they simply could not afford.  Last 02192006_iraglassSeptember, this house of cards came crashing down, setting off the global credit crisis and making an ongoing recession the worst in a generation.

Click here  to listen to the full “The Giant Pool of Money” podcast from “This American Life” to learn exactly what happened and why.  I know of no better description of how the recession happened.

Will Surge in Mortgage Applications Find a Home?

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

The residential mortgage market is experiencing an unexpected – but welcome — boom, a result of interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans falling to 5.47 percent from 5.99 percent.  According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly review, the average rate for a 15-year fixed-rate loan – popular when refinancing – fell to 5.13 percent from 5.78 percent.  A one-year adjustable-rate mortgage decreased to 6.61 percent from 6.87 percent. The existing-mortgage refinance rate tripled during Thanksgiving week, while purchase volume increased 38 percent.  Refinance applications were 69.1 percent of the total volume, a significant increase over the 49.3 percent reported during the previous week.  The survey covers approximately 50 percent of all weekly residential mortgage originations.

The MBA reported that the application rate more than doubled during the short Thanksgiving week.  The trade group’s application rate rose to 857.7 in the week ending November 28, compared with 404.4 the previous week.

Clearly, part of the demand is being driven by buyers locked into floating-rate or short-term debt or adjustable-rate mortgages looking to refinance into fixed-interest vehicles.  While Frannie and Freddie should fill some of the void in light of their $20 billion bailout, the market will still have a financing shortfall with the disappearance of CDOs and the securities market.