Posts Tagged ‘default’

Sovereign Debt Could Be 2010’s Subprime

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

 Potential sovereign debt defaults could destabilize global economy in 2010.Greece, Spain, Ukraine, Austria, Latvia and Mexico are among the nations in danger of sovereign debt default, putting the global economic recovery from the recession at risk.  Sovereign debt is the debt of nations.  For example, U.S. Treasuries are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the government; similarly, other countries sell bonds to raise money to pay for programs such as armies and public healthcare.  When a nation defaults on its sovereign debt, it means they are unable to pay their creditors.  Dubai escaped default when its oil-rich neighbor, Abu Dhabi, bailed out the emirate to the tune of $10 billion.  Also in trouble - though to lesser degrees — are Ecuador, Argentina, Grenada, Lebanon, Pakistan and Bolivia.

A default on sovereign debt is potentially even more disastrous than last year’s subprime meltdown because it has the potential to lead to geopolitical volatility, social unrest and even war.  Investors who have purchased sovereign debt - which typically is perceived as safer than corporate debt because countries can raise taxes and increase tariffs to raise cash to pay their debts - could see some extremely poor returns.

In a book entitled This Time Is Different:  Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, authors and economists Ken Rogoff of Harvard and Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland state that “Since 1970, nearly half of sovereign defaults have occurred in nations with debt-to-GNP ratios of 60 percent or more.  This makes sense:  As a country’s debt starts to approach the size of its total economy (or GNP), it gets harder to make their payments, just like an individual whose debts start to eat up all (or most) of their salary.”

First CMBS Under TALF Is on the Horizon

Monday, November 9th, 2009

first-cmbs-under-talf-is-on-horizonThe markets are keeping a close eye on a transaction that may jump start the commercial property debt market, even though the Federal Reserve has expressed some uneasiness with the deal.  If the transaction is successful, it could pave the way for the initial sale of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) under the government Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF).  The credit-hungry commercial real estate industry is hoping that the debt sale by shopping center owner Developers Diversified Realty Corporation will lead to additional CMBS sales.

Developers Diversified has obtained a $400 million loan from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., which is intended to be converted into a CMBS offering through TALF.  The Fed, keeping the taxpayers’ best interests in mind, has reservations about financing the transaction since it involves a single borrower.  These are considered riskier than deals involving multiple borrowers, where the risk is spread over different borrowers, building type and even location.

“The Fed is being very conservative, very diligent in reviewing collateral and very risk-averse,” said Frank Innaurato, managing director at Realpoint LLC, a credit-ratings firm.  Currently, the Fed is reviewing the transaction, which involves 28 shopping centers with stable cash flows.  If the Fed says “no” to the transaction, Goldman Sachs is said to be considering selling the $400 million loan outside TALF.

TALF was created to revive the CMBS market, as well as jump start securitized debt markets by offering low-cost financing from the Fed so investors can once again purchase these securities.  The program lets investors borrow as much as 95 percent of the bonds’ value by pledging the securities as collateral - meaning the risk is on taxpayers if there is a default.

Majority of UK Commercial Property Loans in Default

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

The majority of commercial property loans in the United Kingdom are currently in default, according to a study by CB Richard Ellis.  Approximately £200 billion ($327 billion) is required to refinance existing loans secured against £450 billion of properties over the next five to seven years.  Only half of that amount is available, according to a CBRE estimate.Majority of UK Commercial Property Loans in Default

“Almost every senior, and every junior, loan is in technical default,” according to Robin Hubbard, a director of CBRE’s real estate finance group.  “There’s limited financing available for new loans or refinancing other people’s loans.”

Investors borrowed £360 billion to buy commercial properties in Britain, using just £90 billion of their own money.  As a result, they now owe more than the properties are worth.  Because of the global financial crisis, average property values have fallen 44 percent since the middle of 2007, notes Investment Property Databank Ltd.  Banks are extending approximately £45 billion of loans maturing this year, though for a brief period only.  This only postpones the ultimate defaults.

The major challenge is the leasing market, which “could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” Hubbard noted.  “Nobody’s going to throw money in to get things back, unless it’s for new, nice, prime kit.  There’s only so much magic dust you can sprinkle on the rubbish stuff.”

Home Equity Loan Delinquencies Spiral as Values Contract

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

Residences as ATMs Home equity loan delinquencies reached a record high of 3.52 percent during the first quarter of 2009, according to the American Bankers Association.  That contrasts with the 3.03 percent reported during the fourth quarter of 2008.  Late payments on loans climbed to a record 1.89 percent.

Home equity loans also are partly to blame for the current credit crisis.  Cheap credit set off a housing boom in the early 2000s.  Fast-rising house prices spurred homeowners to take out home equity loans - in effect, using their residences as ATMs - to pay for improvements, new cars and a list of discretionary purchases.

The U.S. residential real estate market lost $2.4 trillion in value last year, according to First American CoreLogic.  The Mortgage Bankers Association notes that seasonally adjusted numbers of mortgage delinquencies increased by 7.88 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the highest recorded numbers since 1972.

FDIC Walking Away from Leases of Failed Banks

Friday, June 26th, 2009

Troubled Los Angeles-based office REIT Maguire Properties is facing default and currently is in discussions with a special servicer to resolve its financial woes.  The goal is to have the special servicer take over Maguire’s $106 million CMBS financing covering the Quintana office campus it owns in Orange County, CA.  fdic-moneyThe campus’s major tenant was Washington Mutual Bank, which failed last year.

As receiver for WaMu, the Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) gave up its majority of the Quintana lease effective in March and does not have to pay rent or other compensation connected to the lease termination.  A little-known provision  gives the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) the authority to break leases between the bank and the landlord once a financial institution has been taken over.  One side effect of this provision could be that we’ll see fewer branch banks in the future as the FDIC breaks additional leases inked by failed banks.

As a result of the FDIC’s ending the lease, the Quintana campus’ occupancy was reduced approximately 250,000 SF to 40 percent.  According to Nelson C. Rising, Maguire’s president and CEO, the FDIC’s rejection of the leases was “a highly unusual and unfortunate event.”