Posts Tagged ‘default’

Fitch Ratings Reaffirms U.S. Creditworthiness as AAA

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan says that Italy is the root of most of Europe’s economic problems, as well as our own.  In a recent appearance on “Meet the Press”, “It depends on Europe, not the United States,” Greenspan said. “The United States was actually doing relatively well, sluggish but going forward until Italy ran into trouble.”  According to Greenspan, 50 percent of American corporations have offices in Europe, and the continent “has been a very important driving force in the overall earnings of U.S. corporations.”  Greenspan also noted that S&P’s downgrade “hit a nerve”.  The ratings agency said it was reducing the AAA rating to AA+ not only because of the country’s debt load, but because it doesn’t believe that Congress can resolve the country’s debt problems.  Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, agrees, noting that “There’s a lot of fear and misunderstanding and confusion, and that all could come out in the stock and bond markets.  I don’t think it takes much to unnerve investors given the current environment.  I think anything could drive investors to sell given how fragile sentiment is.”

At the same time, Greenspan downplayed the risk of a double-dip recession in the United States, noting that the economy is in better shape than its European peers.  With all of this bickering going on, the economy is slowing down,” Greenspan said.  “You can see it in all the data.  I don’t see a double-dip, but I do see it slowing down.”  Europe, which purchases 25 percent of American exports and is home to the operations of many American companies, could determine the course of the U.S. economy’s recovery, according to Greenspan.  European leaders are working to control a sovereign-debt crisis, which has spread to Italy, the euro zone’s third-largest economy, and is causing chaos in global financial markets.

“When Italy first showed signs of weakness and started selling its bonds — the yield is now over six percent, which is an unsustainable level — it created a massive problem in Europe because Italy is a very large country, cannot be easily bailed out and indeed cannot be bailed out.  This is not an issue of credit rating. The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that.  There is zero probability of default,” Greenspan said.

In the meantime, Fitch Ratings delivered some good news to the U.S. economy when it reaffirmed its AAA credit rating and said it did not anticipate downgrading the nation’s debt in the near future.  The firm said the outlook for the rating is stable because the recent deal to raise the debt ceiling and cut the budget deficit proved that the nation’s political leaders are willing to do what’s necessary to cut the nation’s growing debt.  The debt-ceiling deal “was a significant positive development that provided a substantive and necessary increase in the federal debt ceiling.  It also signaled that there is the political commitment to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path consistent with the U.S. sovereign rating remaining ‘AAA’,” Fitch said.  Fitch’s outlook is the most positive on the U.S. of the primary credit rating agencies.  Standard & Poor’s downgraded long-term debt to AA+ after concluding that the planned $2.1 trillion to $2.4 trillion budget cuts over the next 10 years are not large enough to stabilize the nation’s rising debt.  Moody’s Investor Services also retained the nation’s AAA rating, but changed its outlook to negative.  This means that there’s a possibility of a downgrade.

“The key pillars of the U.S.’s exceptional creditworthiness remains intact: its pivotal role in the global financial system and the flexible, diversified and wealthy economy that provides its revenue base.  Monetary and exchange-rate flexibility further enhances the capacity of the economy to absorb and adjust to ‘shocks,’ Fitch said.

“I think they’re looking at a broader perspective than S&P in the global aspects,” Steve Goldman, Weeden & Company market strategist said of Fitch’s decision. “It’s giving a sigh of relief to investors here.”

Greece Has Worst Credit in the World – Below Pakistan and Ecuador

Tuesday, July 5th, 2011

European finance ministers are working to resolve a quandary over how to talk banks into “voluntarily” contributing to a second Greece bailout and avoiding a destructive debt default. This attempt to rescue Greece’s finances hinges on how far banks, pension funds and insurers will accept new terms on old debts prior to repayment by Athens.  Greece has accumulated 350 billion euros ($500 billion) of debt, more than its entire economy produces in 18 months.  The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that requiring private investors to help could see the credit ratings agencies deem Athens to be in default, an enormous risk for the entire eurozone.

European finance chiefs are hammering out a Greek rescue to prevent sovereign default after the country was given the world’s lowest credit rating by Standard & Poor’s.  According to Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager, “We need to make it as voluntary as possible to prevent triggering scenarios that cost more and make financial markets lose all confidence in the eurozone.”

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is firm in his belief that taxpayers in the eurozone’s biggest economy will be willing to lend Greece more money — but only if banks and private creditors take their own hits.  “The German government is ready to participate in supplementary measures,” Schaeuble said, but, “of course, a role for the private sector is an element.  We are in discussions.”  Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter echoed this hardline stance, noting that “we can’t leave the profits in the hands of the banks and the losses in the hands of taxpayers.”  The chairman of the 17-nation currency Eurogroup, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, said the finance ministers had come together “to examine different options…all the options.”  Additionally, Germany is supporting a bond swap that would push out the maturities on Greece’s debt by seven years, giving it more time to rebalance its economy and sell state assets.

According to Finnish Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen, “Most of the countries have indicated that some form of private sector involvement is crucial,  I want to underline that we have to avoid, whatever it takes, the next financial crisis.  The balance is very difficult.”  A new aid package for Greece is expected to be finalized at an upcoming European Union summit.

A majority of German banks say they can withstand Greek debt restructuring, according to Christoph Schmidt, an economic adviser to Chancellor Angela Merkel.  A “soft restructuring” would have little effect on Greece’s debt burden and eventually creditors — including the European Central Bank — will have to write off part of their Greek sovereign debt, Schmidt said.

A more pessimistic viewpoint was expressed by European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer who said any attempt by eurozone governments to fine-tune Greek debt that results in a default means financing the nation’s entire economy.  “Our position is extremely simple: if there is a solution that avoids a risk of default, it seems suitable,” Noyer said.  “If you can’t find it, it’s better to avoid touching the debt.  If, despite everything, you try to reduce the debt and you provoke a risk of default, you’ll have to finance the entire Greek economy.  We’ve gone as far as possible in our interpretation of the quality of debt.  If we have debt in default, it will be impossible to consider that we have quality debt.  Therefore it will become impossible to accept this debt as collateral.”  Believing that restructuring or rescheduling can lead to a relaxation of budget plans is a “dangerous illusion,” he said.  “Such operations do not in themselves provide any new financing.  They always lead, at least initially, to a further drop in confidence and lower capital inflows, which increases the adjustment effort needed.”  Noyer also rejected suggestions that the ECB’s stance was related to concerns about the ability of European banks to absorb losses on Greek debt, or even about the ECB taking losses on its own Greek holdings.

The position “has nothing to do with the situation of French or German or European banks, and nothing to do with the fact that the euro system holds Greek debt,” he said.  “That’s rubbish.  Our one and only concern is the financing of the Greek economy.  We must absolutely avoid anything that could result in a default,” Noyer said.  “It would be an extraordinarily serious risk for the financing of the Greek economy and would be one for a certain number of euro-zone regions after that.”

Greece now has the dubious honor of being the lowest-rated sovereign in the world, below Ecuador, Jamaica, Pakistan and Grenada. According to Standard & Poor’s, “In our view, Greece is increasingly likely to restructure its debt in a manner that, under the conditions of any package of additional funding provided by Greece’s official creditors, would result in one or more defaults under our criteria.”

Want to Buy a Toxic Asset? The Treasury Department Is Selling Them

Monday, April 18th, 2011

The Treasury Department is planning to sell $142 billion worth of toxic assets that it acquired during the financial crisis.  According to Treasury, it wants to sell approximately $10 million worth of assets every month, depending on market conditions and hopes to end the program next year.  Treasury acquired the securities — primarily 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac –between October, 2008 and December, 2009 to stabilize the home loan market.

The Treasury has decided to sell the securities now because the market has “notably improved.”  According to Treasury officials, the sale could net $15 billion to $20 billion in profits for taxpayers.  The sale will have a negligible impact on the U.S. debt limit but could delay the ceiling’s arrival by a few days.  In early March, Treasury estimated the U.S. would hit the $14.294 trillion ceiling between April 15 and May 31.  The Treasury in 2008 retained State Street Global Advisors, a leading institutional asset manager, to acquire, manage and dispose of the mortgage-backed securities portfolio.

“We will exit this investment at a gradual and orderly pace to maximize the recovery of taxpayer dollars and help protect the process of repair of the housing finance market, Mary Miller, assistant secretary for financial markets, said.  “We’re continuing to wind down the emergency programs that were put in place in 2008 and 2009 to help restore market stability, and the sale of these securities is consistent with that effort.”

Congress gave Treasury the authority to buy securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The value of these mortgage-backed securities declined significantly after the housing bubble burst, prompting fears that write-downs could drag down individual banks and further plunge the financial system into panic.  The Treasury said that three years after the worst point of the crisis, the market for asset-backed derivatives is now much more robust.

The government bought $221 billion of these bonds, as part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.  Treasury announced that it would buy the bonds on the day the government took over Fannie and Freddie.  “The primary objectives of this portfolio will be to promote market stability, ensure mortgage availability, and protect the taxpayer,” Treasury said at the time.  The portfolio is now just $142 billion.  The Congressional Oversight Panel, which supervised the Troubled Asset Relief Program, said that as of February of 2011, Treasury had received $84 billion in principal repayments and $16.7 billion in interest on the securities it holds.

“It was a bit of a surprise, though will likely be easy to digest,said Tom Tucci, head of government bond trading at Capital Markets in New York.  “We spent a year and a half at levels that were unsustainable because they weren’t based on economic fundamentals, they were based on fear.  “Now some of the fundamentals are starting to come back into place.”

Republicans are asking for deeper cuts in government spending before they will agree to raise the debt limit.  Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has cautioned that failure to raise the borrowing limit would cause an unparalleled default by the government on the national debt.  Without question, this would drive up the government’s cost of borrowing money.

Fannie, Freddie Bailouts Could Cost the Taxpayers $154 Billion

Monday, November 8th, 2010

Taxpayer bill for Fannie, Freddie bailout could reach $154 billion. The ultimate cost of bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could cost as much as $154 billion unless the economy improves, according to a government report.  The mortgage giants rescue – which has kept the housing market on life supports – already has cost $135 billion to cover losses on home loans in default.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, says the most likely scenario is that house prices will have to fall slightly during a slow economic recovery, then rise a bit.  If that occurs, the Fannie and Freddie bailout will cost taxpayers an additional $19 billion.  A more upbeat prediction sees the housing market recovering sooner, which would require just $6 billion more for a total bill of $141 billion.

Washington, D.C., research firm Federal Financial Analytics believes the FHFA projection provides a sound indication of what the bailout will cost, but “nowhere near a definitive picture of it.”  Fannie and Freddie issued a joint statement that said “It’s simply impossible to forecast reliably now how much foreclosuregate will cost.”  Fannie and Freddie’s plight stands in sharp contrast to the success of the Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP), which is now expected to cost just 10 percent of the $700 billion originally forecast.

Federal regulators seized Fannie and Freddie in September of 2008 in the wake of the financial crisis.  Since then, the government has kept the agencies solvent, with President Obama pledging unlimited support.  “From the beginning, the Obama administration has made it clear that the current structure of the government’s role in housing finance, while necessary in the short-term to provide critical support to a still-fragile housing market, is simply not acceptable for the long term,” said Jeffrey Goldstein, Treasury Department undersecretary for domestic finance.

Waiting for Defaults

Tuesday, October 5th, 2010

Commercial real estate may be in better shape than thought. Real estate professionals who had been expecting a worst-case scenario – an onrush of distressed commercial properties coming onto the market – are still waiting for that to come to fruition.  Ben Johnson, writing in the National Real Estate Investor, notes that “Keep on waiting/lurking seems to be the prevailing view.  According to New York-based researcher Real Capital Analytics, the default rate for commercial real estate mortgages held by the nation’s FDIC-insured depository institutions did increase by nine basis points to 4.28 percent in the 2nd quarter, up from 4.19 percent in the 1st quarter. For those of you keeping score on a historical scorecard, at its cyclical low in the 1st half of 2008, the commercial mortgage default rate was 0.58 percent.  A mere pittance.  Year-over-year, the tale is more striking, with the commercial default rate up by 139 basis points.”

Instead of accelerating, Johnson says that the negative drift seems to be slowing.  “Year-over-year increases had been accelerating for 13 consecutive quarters through the end of 2009, but have moderated more recently,” he said.  The dollar volume of commercial mortgages in default recorded the smallest increase since the 2nd quarter of 2007.  Approximately $46.2 billion of bank-held commercial mortgages currently are in default, an increase of $547 million from the 1st quarter of 2010.

Sovereign Debt Could Be 2010′s Subprime

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

 Potential sovereign debt defaults could destabilize global economy in 2010.Greece, Spain, Ukraine, Austria, Latvia and Mexico are among the nations in danger of sovereign debt default, putting the global economic recovery from the recession at risk.  Sovereign debt is the debt of nations.  For example, U.S. Treasuries are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the government; similarly, other countries sell bonds to raise money to pay for programs such as armies and public healthcare.  When a nation defaults on its sovereign debt, it means they are unable to pay their creditors.  Dubai escaped default when its oil-rich neighbor, Abu Dhabi, bailed out the emirate to the tune of $10 billion.  Also in trouble – though to lesser degrees — are Ecuador, Argentina, Grenada, Lebanon, Pakistan and Bolivia.

A default on sovereign debt is potentially even more disastrous than last year’s subprime meltdown because it has the potential to lead to geopolitical volatility, social unrest and even war.  Investors who have purchased sovereign debt – which typically is perceived as safer than corporate debt because countries can raise taxes and increase tariffs to raise cash to pay their debts – could see some extremely poor returns.

In a book entitled This Time Is Different:  Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, authors and economists Ken Rogoff of Harvard and Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland state that “Since 1970, nearly half of sovereign defaults have occurred in nations with debt-to-GNP ratios of 60 percent or more.  This makes sense:  As a country’s debt starts to approach the size of its total economy (or GNP), it gets harder to make their payments, just like an individual whose debts start to eat up all (or most) of their salary.”

First CMBS Under TALF Is on the Horizon

Monday, November 9th, 2009

first-cmbs-under-talf-is-on-horizonThe markets are keeping a close eye on a transaction that may jump start the commercial property debt market, even though the Federal Reserve has expressed some uneasiness with the deal.  If the transaction is successful, it could pave the way for the initial sale of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) under the government Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF).  The credit-hungry commercial real estate industry is hoping that the debt sale by shopping center owner Developers Diversified Realty Corporation will lead to additional CMBS sales.

Developers Diversified has obtained a $400 million loan from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., which is intended to be converted into a CMBS offering through TALF.  The Fed, keeping the taxpayers’ best interests in mind, has reservations about financing the transaction since it involves a single borrower.  These are considered riskier than deals involving multiple borrowers, where the risk is spread over different borrowers, building type and even location.

“The Fed is being very conservative, very diligent in reviewing collateral and very risk-averse,” said Frank Innaurato, managing director at Realpoint LLC, a credit-ratings firm.  Currently, the Fed is reviewing the transaction, which involves 28 shopping centers with stable cash flows.  If the Fed says “no” to the transaction, Goldman Sachs is said to be considering selling the $400 million loan outside TALF.

TALF was created to revive the CMBS market, as well as jump start securitized debt markets by offering low-cost financing from the Fed so investors can once again purchase these securities.  The program lets investors borrow as much as 95 percent of the bonds’ value by pledging the securities as collateral – meaning the risk is on taxpayers if there is a default.

Majority of UK Commercial Property Loans in Default

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

The majority of commercial property loans in the United Kingdom are currently in default, according to a study by CB Richard Ellis.  Approximately £200 billion ($327 billion) is required to refinance existing loans secured against £450 billion of properties over the next five to seven years.  Only half of that amount is available, according to a CBRE estimate.Majority of UK Commercial Property Loans in Default

“Almost every senior, and every junior, loan is in technical default,” according to Robin Hubbard, a director of CBRE’s real estate finance group.  “There’s limited financing available for new loans or refinancing other people’s loans.”

Investors borrowed £360 billion to buy commercial properties in Britain, using just £90 billion of their own money.  As a result, they now owe more than the properties are worth.  Because of the global financial crisis, average property values have fallen 44 percent since the middle of 2007, notes Investment Property Databank Ltd.  Banks are extending approximately £45 billion of loans maturing this year, though for a brief period only.  This only postpones the ultimate defaults.

The major challenge is the leasing market, which “could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” Hubbard noted.  “Nobody’s going to throw money in to get things back, unless it’s for new, nice, prime kit.  There’s only so much magic dust you can sprinkle on the rubbish stuff.”

Home Equity Loan Delinquencies Spiral as Values Contract

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

Residences as ATMs Home equity loan delinquencies reached a record high of 3.52 percent during the first quarter of 2009, according to the American Bankers Association.  That contrasts with the 3.03 percent reported during the fourth quarter of 2008.  Late payments on loans climbed to a record 1.89 percent.

Home equity loans also are partly to blame for the current credit crisis.  Cheap credit set off a housing boom in the early 2000s.  Fast-rising house prices spurred homeowners to take out home equity loans – in effect, using their residences as ATMs – to pay for improvements, new cars and a list of discretionary purchases.

The U.S. residential real estate market lost $2.4 trillion in value last year, according to First American CoreLogic.  The Mortgage Bankers Association notes that seasonally adjusted numbers of mortgage delinquencies increased by 7.88 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the highest recorded numbers since 1972.

FDIC Walking Away from Leases of Failed Banks

Friday, June 26th, 2009

Troubled Los Angeles-based office REIT Maguire Properties is facing default and currently is in discussions with a special servicer to resolve its financial woes.  The goal is to have the special servicer take over Maguire’s $106 million CMBS financing covering the Quintana office campus it owns in Orange County, CA.  fdic-moneyThe campus’s major tenant was Washington Mutual Bank, which failed last year.

As receiver for WaMu, the Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) gave up its majority of the Quintana lease effective in March and does not have to pay rent or other compensation connected to the lease termination.  A little-known provision  gives the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) the authority to break leases between the bank and the landlord once a financial institution has been taken over.  One side effect of this provision could be that we’ll see fewer branch banks in the future as the FDIC breaks additional leases inked by failed banks.

As a result of the FDIC’s ending the lease, the Quintana campus’ occupancy was reduced approximately 250,000 SF to 40 percent.  According to Nelson C. Rising, Maguire’s president and CEO, the FDIC’s rejection of the leases was “a highly unusual and unfortunate event.”