Posts Tagged ‘Deutsche Bank AG’

Economic Recovery Picking Up Steam

Monday, January 17th, 2011

Economic Recovery Picking Up SteamTreasuries were little changed after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting confirmed that policymakers believe that economic growth is gaining traction.   Fed officials, however, believe that the economic gains were “not sufficient” to curtail their plans to buy $600 billion in U.S. debt to encourage employment in a stimulus strategy called quantitative easing (QE2 for those with a sense of humor).

“In general, Fed policymakers think the economic recovery is gaining a little bit of momentum, although the pace is a little bit slow,” said Alex Li, a New York-based interest-rate strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.  “There are certainly some concerns about the economy gaining momentum — concerns from Treasury investors.  That added a bearish tone to the Treasuries market.”

Five-year note yields rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.01 percent in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data.  Ten-year note yields were slightly changed at 3.33 percent after rising to 3.37 percent.  “The Fed will have to see good growth for more than a one- or two-month period to alter their views on QE2,” said Charles Comiskey, head of Treasury trading at Bank of Nova Scotia in New York. “They have a high threshold.”

The nation added 140,000 jobs in December, after a rise of 39,000 in November, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists.  Orders at American manufacturers unexpectedly rose 0.7 percent in November, after falling 0.9 percent in October, according to data from the Commerce Department.

The $858 billion bill that President Barack Obama signed December 17 extending tax cuts for two years prompted speculation that federal borrowing needs to stay stable or increase.

The Fed is buying U.S. debt every day this week in the quantitative easing program.  In fact, it purchased $1.62 billion worth of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities that mature between July of 2012 and February of 2040.

CMBS Activity Expected to Remain Slow in 2010

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

CMBS transactions might total just $15 billion in 2010Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are expected to remain below $15 billion in 2010 as borrowers cope with falling property values.  According to Alan Todd, a JPMorgan analyst, debt sales backed by CBD office, hotel and shopping center loans could be as low as $10 billion this year.  Aaron Bryson of Barclays Capital is more optimistic, predicting transactions totaling approximately $15 billion for the year.

The federal government has promised to revive the $700 billion CMBS market, even as property values fall and securing loans is difficult.  In 2007, a record $237 billion of debt was sold.  That fell precipitously in 2008 to just $12 billion and even further to $1.4 billion in 2009.  Activity isn’t expected to increase until the second half of 2010.

“The banks would like to lend,” Todd noted.  “There are fewer properties to lend against.”  He pointed out that many owners went heavily into debt during the boom and now cannot locate properties not currently encumbered to lend against.  The dearth of new loans cuts off funding to borrowers whose debt is maturing.  Approximately two thirds of loans bundled and sold as securities – totaling $410 billion — may require additional cash as property values fall and underwriting standards get tougher, according to Deutsche Bank AG research.

Moody’s Investor Services reports that commercial real estate prices in the United States are 42.9 percent lower than their 2007 peak.

Banks Charging Off Bad Commercial Loans at Fast Pace

Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

buy-sell-panicA new Wall Street Journal analysis shows that U.S. banks are charging off bad commercial mortgages at the fastest pace in almost two decades.  At the current clip, losses on loans that financed apartments, retail centers, offices, and other commercial real estate could total nearly $30 billion by the end of the year.

Thousands of U.S. banks loaded up on commercial-property debt; as a result, losses on such loans will be on the radar as banks post quarterly results in coming weeks.  Regulators, meanwhile, continue to push some bankers to take losses on commercial real-estate exposure now as a way to lessen the blow of a catastrophic hit later.  Some analysts remain concerned that some banks are not sufficiently recognizing losses on their commercial real-estate loans, thereby exposing themselves to larger losses later.

According to Deutsche Bank AG, since the beginning of 2008, the amount of charged-off commercial mortgages as a percentage of such debt outstanding has ranged from a high of 3.2 percent to as low as 0.3 percent.  Richard Parkus, head of commercial mortgage-backed securities research at Deutsche Bank, comments, “Net charge-offs to date have been highly inadequate. This is clearly a problem that is being pushed out into the future.”

Banks are balancing the ability to take charge offs (or loan loss reserves) with the capacity on their balance sheet to absorb such loses without jeopardizing their capital condition with the regulators.