Posts Tagged ‘Economic Policy Institute’

Job Creation Strengthens, But Unemployment Increases?

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

American companies added 244,000 jobs to the economy in April, the fastest pace in five years.  In an ironic twist, however, the unemployment rate climbed to nine percent, according to the Department of Labor.  The unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent in March after dropping continuously since November’s rate of 9.8 percent rate. Economists had predicted that just 186,000 jobs would be added, so the numbers show that the economy is gaining strength.  “What we’re seeing is a sustained pick-up in hiring and it suggests that businesses have gained enough confidence to look past short-term fluctuations in demand,” said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“Headwinds remain, but not enough to derail the recovery or set us back momentarily,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, although she remains cautious about the outlook.  According to Swonk, the increase in new unemployment claims were reported in the weeks after the April jobs surveys.  Job losses in the public sector could intensify, with more teachers getting laid off as the school year ends and local governments deal with budget shortfalls.

The number of officially unemployed Americans totaled 13.75 million in April, an increase over the 205,000 reported in March, according to the Labor Department.  “At this point, coming out of a recession this deep, we should be getting unambiguously huge growth, of 300,000 to 400,000 (new jobs) a month,” said Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist at the Economic Policy Institute.  “And it’s just nowhere near that.  We’re still in a rocky place.”

April’s job growth was in multiple sectors.  For example, the retail industry added 57,100, approximately half at general merchandise stores.  Manufacturing added 29,000 more workers in April.  Since December 2009, factory payrolls have risen by 250,000, according to the Labor Department.  Business and professional services, whose wages tend to be higher than average, grew by 51,000, with consulting businesses, computer services and architectural firms experiencing growth.  Educational and health services, and the leisure industry, each also added nearly as many jobs.  Even the construction industry saw a small gain in April.  Government was the sole employment group that declined; its payrolls contracted by 24,000, primarily due to cuts at state and public agencies.

According to Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, “The last three months we’ve added more than a quarter million jobs, on average, every month.  That’s very heartening and the fact that it was, really, across a whole lot of industries.”

According to Heather Boushey, an economist at the Center for American Progress, a non-profit think tank in Washington, D.C., “We need to see job growth break above 300,000 a month and stay at that level for many months before the unemployment rate will begin to come back down.  Today’s report provides a number of data points that point toward caution in interpreting the data positively in anticipation of that level of jobs growth returning anytime soon.  The average hours worked for production and nonsupervisory employees was 33.6 hours per week in April, the same as in March.  This remains below the 2000s recovery peak of 33.9 hours per week, and far below the late 1990s peak of 34.6 hours per week.  At the same time, employers shed 2,300 temporary workers, which either means they are hiring permanent employees or they are no longer seeing an increase in demand.

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Recent College Grads Can Expect Starting Salaries 10 Percent Below 2000 Levels

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

Recent college graduates can expect to earn 10 percent less than they did as long ago as 2000.  In fact, one of the longest-lasting legacies of the great recession may be its negative impact on the lifetime careers of young graduates.  The current high unemployment rate will leave many of them a step behind throughout their careers.  A study conducted by Yale School of Management economist Lisa Kahn determined that workers who graduated from college during the recession of the early 1980s were still in worse shape financially than workers who graduated in better times after approximately 2006.  When young college graduates do get a job, it frequently won’t pay well.  According to Census Bureau statistics, the median annual earnings of a worker 25 to 34 years old with a bachelor’s degree was $40,875 last year, a significant decline from the $45,200 reported in 2000, adjusting for inflation.

Despite the dismal salary news, there is good news in that fact that hiring for 2011 graduates is up 10 percent when compared with last year.  Meanwhile, unemployment rates among those with a degree is less than half the national average.  It’s those with just a high school education whose unemployment rates are above the national average.

The typical wage for recent college graduates has fallen by nearly $1 per hour over the last 10 years, according to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).  Despite the lack of growth in entry-level wages, a college degree remains a worthy investment.  According to the EPI’s Heidi Shierholz, “After gains in the 1980s and particularly in the 1990s, hourly wages for young college-educated men in 2000 were $22.75, but that dropped by almost a full dollar to $21.77 by 2010.  For young college-educated women, hourly wages fell from $19.38 to $18.43 over the same period.  Now, with unemployment expected to remain above 8 percent well into 2014, it will likely be many years before young college graduates — or any workers — see substantial wage growth.”

There is some upbeat news for the class of 2011. Students who will graduated this year received job offers with starting salaries averaging $50,034 annually, a 3.5 percent increase over last year, according to a survey from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE).  Employers said they plan to increase hiring of college graduates by 13.5 percent compared with 2010.  Business majors were the best positioned, with the average starting salary rising nearly two percent to $48,089.  Accounting majors received salary offers of $49,022, up 2.2 percent, while finance majors were offered an average of $50,535, an increase of 1.9 percent.  Starting salaries for business administration/management graduates fell slightly to $44,171, down 2.3 percent.  Engineering graduates — typically one of the highest-paying fields — didn’t see a big change, with the average starting salary down 0.3 percent but still impressive at $59,435.

Certain engineering majors saw noteworthy increases, with electrical engineering majors receiving an average salary offer of $61,690 — up 4.4 percent over 2010.  Mechanical engineering salaries rose 3.8 percent to $60,598, although it didn’t pay as well to graduate with a degree in civil engineering, with starting salaries in that field slipping 7.1 percent to $48,885.  While the association’s survey didn’t break out starting salaries for individual liberal arts majors, offers were up an impressive 9.5 percent to $35,633.  That compares to a steep decline of 11 percent last year.

The financial crisis is forcing Americans to re-think what they want out of a college education. “Students and families are becoming more savvy consumers about how they get their degrees, where they go to school and how they pay for it.  I think that is long overdue,” said Edie Irons, the Institute for College Access and Success’s communications director.  “It used to be that a college degree seemed like a ticket to ride, but there are no guarantees anymore that once you get that degree, you’re going to get a great job and do really well financially.  There’s been research that has shown students graduating in a recession earn lower incomes throughout their lifetimes than those graduating in a boom,” Irons said.  “It is a real concern, and we think graduates need good information about how to manage their debt.”

According to Brandon Lagana, director of admissions at Northern Illinois University, students are being more fluid in their approach to college.  Some chose a more affordable university, others start at a two-year institution then finish at a four-year school, and some wait a few years before starting any schooling.  “We’re certainly seeing students using more options to a degree than they ever did before,” he said.

Read my recent Huffington Post article about college education and debt here.

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It’s the Jobs, Stupid.

Wednesday, February 16th, 2011

President Obama recently took a short stroll from the White House and through Lafayette Park to give a speech in what might be termed enemy territory – the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The subject was jobs and what the Chamber can do to jump start hiring by the companies that form its membership.  Noting that American companies are sitting on approximately $2 trillion in cash, the president challenged the Chamber to invest some of that money by hiring Americans who are out of work.

“Many of your own economists and salespeople are now forecasting a healthy increase in demand.  So I want to encourage you to get in the game,” Obama said, referencing the tax credits his administration negotiated to spur new investments.  “As you all know, it is investments made now that will pay off as the economy rebounds.  And as you hire, you know that more Americans working means more sales, greater demand and higher profits for your companies.  We can create a virtuous cycle.  Not every regulation is bad; not every regulation is burdensome on business,” he said.  “Moreover, the perils of too much regulation are matched by the dangers of too little.”

Relations between the president and the Chamber – one of the nation’s most powerful lobbying groups — have been chilly and the speech was an effort to find common ground.  Since the Democrats’ defeat in the November mid-term election, Obama has been trying to mend fences with big business.  One part of that strategy was to hire Bill Daley, a former Chamber board member and JP Morgan Chase executive, as his new chief of staff to replace Rahm Emanuel.  Additionally, he named General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt to head an economic advisory panel dedicated to job creation.  According to the president, “I will go anywhere anytime to be a booster for American business, American workers and American products, and I don’t charge a commission.”  

The Chamber gave the president a warm welcome, with the organization’s president Thomas Donohue expressing the body’s “absolute commitment” to working with the White House on turning around the economy and creating new jobs.  “Our focus is finding common ground to ensure America’s greatness in the 21st century,” he said.  “America works best when we work together.”

The president’s remarks came on a day when several Illinois firms warned that they are planning to lay off employees or close facilities. For example, Kmart is planning to close several stores in Illinois.  Gold Standard Baking, Inc., will close a commercial bakery in Chicago, slashing 73 jobs.  Another 67 employees are likely to be laid off at Itasca-based C. D. Listening Bar Inc., which sells DVDs, CDs, books and video games online at DeepDiscount.com.  AGI North America, LLC, a paperboard box manufacturing company in Jacksonville, is closing at the end of March, putting 70 employees out of work.  Gray Interplant Systems, Inc. – a warehousing and storage company in Peoria and Mossville – is planning to lay off 167 employees in April.

So why are American companies not hiring – or not hiring on their home turf?  According to the Chamber’s Donohue, it’s a variety of reasons, including new regulations contained in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill. Additionally, companies are holding onto their cash to fund future acquisitions.  Consolidation makes new regulatory burdens easier to bear.  Once companies’ regulatory costs are clear and under control, they can begin hiring, he said.  Finally, demand remains relatively low.  Once spending improves, the Chamber believes that companies will have no choice but to invest in additional personnel to meet that demand.  As consumer and business spending grows, so should jobs.

And, the jobs are going elsewhere. The Economic Policy Institute, a Washington think tank, says American companies created 1.4 million jobs abroad in 2010, compared with less than 1 million in the United States. The additional 1.4 million jobs would have cut the unemployment rate to 8.9 percent, according to Robert Scott, the institute’s senior international economist.

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November Unemployment Matches 1980s Record

Wednesday, December 22nd, 2010

November Unemployment Matches 1980s RecordWith the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 9.8 percent in November,  the Department of Labor is concerned that economic recovery isn’t progressing as quickly as it would prefer.  For the 19th consecutive month, unemployment has stayed above nine percent — the longest streak on record, beating out previous highs in the 1980s.   Despite optimistic predictions that the nation would add 150,000 jobs in November, just 39,000 new jobs were added during the month, bringing unemployment up from 9.6 percent to 9.8 percent.

The Federal Reserve has decided to stay the course, saying the “economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment.”   Worries about steady high unemployment were the main motivation behind the Fed’s decision to launch a second round of economic stimulus in November with a new bond-buying program.  Progress on reducing unemployment has been “disappointingly slow,” according to the Fed.

The persistent level of high unemployment shows that many Americans are still suffering, even though the National Bureau of Economic Research says the recession officially ended in June 2009.   The economy lost more than eight million jobs during the recession.  “To anyone around the dinner table, it means little,” says Lawrence Mishel, president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute.  “The fact is, unemployment is going to remain flat for a year.”

“With the jobless rate stuck at 9.8 percent, the economy needs all the help it can get,” said Sung Won Sohn, economist at California State University.  Because nearly 40 percent of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months, there is growing fear that the cause may be more profound than the deepest recession in more than 70 years.

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Buddy, Can You Spare a Job?

Monday, December 14th, 2009

With the national unemployment rate at 10.2 percent, President Barack Obama is focusing on job creation – the American public’s number one concern.  The administration’s “White House to Main Street” summit and tour is gathering advice from a variety of stakeholders, including business executives, small-business owners, economists, union officials and Ed Pawlowski, the mayor of hard-hit Allentown, PA.

The stakes are high because the Obama administration finds itself in the difficult position of wanting to create millions of new jobs without adding to the national debt.  “There’s one group that says we need to do more about the economy, more to create jobs,” according to political analyst Charlie Cook.  “And then there’s the other side that’s saying we’re blowing the heck out of the budget deficits.  And so they’re getting squeezed.”

“If we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, at some point people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession,” the President said in an interview with Fox News.

In the meantime, Congress is considering job stimulus legislation that could combine extensions of COBRA, unemployment compensation and food stamps. Because the Democrats have very little money to spend right now, they know that a successful second stimulus will have to pack a powerful punch.  Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) wants to use $50 billion in leftover TARP funds to provide loans to small businesses.  Yet another proposal from Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) would use $600 million to subsidize employees who volunteer to have their hours cut to help companies avoid layoffs.  This approach has worked spectacularly well in Germany, which has not seen an uptick in unemployment this recession.

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