Posts Tagged ‘economy’
Thursday, September 10th, 2009
Paul Krugman – winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist – is taking advantage of falling home prices in a difficult market. Krugman and his wife, economist Robin Wells, recently paid $1.7 million for a three-bedroom co-op apartment in a pre-war building on Manhattan’s upscale Riverside Drive. The apartment had been on the market for more than one year and had an original asking price of $2.495 million, according to StreetEasy.com, a property listing service.
According to Krugman, “We really wanted a place that has the ultimate New York luxury, which is a washer and a dryer. I do expect New York prices will fall some more, but we need a place. And I came into some money.” Krugman’s Nobel Prize included a $1.4 million cash award. The six-room apartment has nine-foot ceilings, offers “romantic cityscapes” and has a monthly maintenance fee of $1,820. Krugman’s long-time one-bedroom apartment on West 89th Street is under currently contract for a bargain $599,000. Additionally, the Krugmans own a house in Princeton, NJ.
Median Manhattan home prices fell 18.5 percent to $835,700 from a year earlier, according to appraiser Miller Samuel, Inc., and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. The number of sales is half of the 2008 number.
Krugman’s purchase comes at a time when the housing market appears to be stabilizing. Existing home sales rose 3.8 percent in the second quarter to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.76 million over the first quarter, according to National Realtor Association statistics.
Tags: economy, falling home prices, home sales, housing market, luxury apartment, New York City, stabilization
Posted in Economics | No Comments »
Tuesday, September 8th, 2009
Much has been made in the world’s press about India’s economy buoyed by its IT sector. And a lot of it is justified. The nation’s IT sector managed to grow some 20 percent in 2008, according to India’s National Association of Software and Services Companies, and IT firms have already extended 100,000 job offers for 2009.
But all is not rosy for India. While the country has surged in the basic and mid-level areas of coding and development, it has struggled in the area of R&D and top-end innovation. India produces about 300,000 computer science graduates a year. Yet it produces only about 100 computer science PhDs, a small fraction of the 1,500 – 2,000 that get awarded in the United States or China every year according to a recent article from Reuters.
“Students here are not exposed to research from an early age, faculties are not exposed to research and there’s no career path for innovation because there’s a lot of pressure to get a ‘real’ job,” said Vidya Natampally, head of strategy at the Microsoft India Research Centre. Rival China has already pulled ahead with more than 1,100 R&D centers compared to less than 800 in India, despite lingering concerns about rule of law and intellectual property rights (IPR). India is also losing out in the patent stakes. In 2006 – 2007, just 7,000 patents were granted in this country of 1.1 billion people, compared to nearly 160,000 in the United States.
India is cheaper than China for R&D. But salaries in India have been rising by about 15 percent every year and may soon reach parity with China. R&D centre costs in Shanghai are currently just 10-15 percent higher than in India.
But this could be changing: Microsoft, for example, has just opened a new facility in Bangalore staffed with about 60 full-time researchers, many of them Indians with PhDs from top universities in the United States. The center “is at the cutting edge of Microsoft’s R&D, covering seven areas of research including mobility and cryptography. Cisco, IBM, Intel, Nokia are among the other companies going beyond low-end coding to bring R&D to India.
Jacob Cherian is AlterNow’s India Contributor. He is a freelance business writer based in Kerala, India. He has written about business outsourcing for Offshore Advisor.
Tags: Bangalore, China, computer science, Development, economy, IBM, India, information technology, Intel, IPR, IT, Kerala, Microsoft, Microsoft India Research Centre, Nokia, patent, Shanghai, United States
Posted in Economics, General | No Comments »
Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009
Federal Reserve chairman and Great Depression scholar Ben Bernanke will stay in his job for another four years if President Barack Obama gets his way. There likely will be some contentious moments during the reconfirmation hearings as Senators grill him about bailing out Wall Street institutions deemed too big to fail. He is expected to stay on.
Former Fed governor Randall Kroszner, who resigned his post to return to the University of Chicago, believes that the president has made the right choice and that Bernanke’s “amazing and steady” leadership rescued the nation from a second Great Depression. Mark Calabria, a policy scholar at the libertarian Cato Institute, disagrees and opines that Bernanke’s renomination “sends the worst possible message”. Still, most experts think that retaining Bernanke is a smart move, especially now that the economy and financial markets are stabilizing. “Love him or hate him, there’s strength in continuity,” says money manager Douglas Nardi of Legg Mason Investment Counsel. “Things are going pretty well, and you don’t want to rock the boat.”
Bernanke faces some rough months ahead. He will have to start pulling money out of the system that he flooded with cash last fall. This is a judgment call full of political peril, because it could mean slowing economic growth to control inflation – even if unemployment is still hovering around the 10 percent mark. In Kroszner’s opinion, Bernanke is significantly farther along in this process than the general public realizes. The Fed provided approximately $1.5 trillion in short-term loans as of the end of last year, which helped keep swaps, commercial paper and other institutional markets from shutting down completely.
Tags: Ben Bernanke, economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, financial market, Great Depression, President Obama, unemployment, Wall Street
Posted in Economics, Financing | No Comments »
Monday, August 10th, 2009
Sales of new and existing homes rose in June for the third straight month, due primarily to low prices and attractive mortgage rates. Home sales also rose 11 percent over the previous month. The federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers helped to drive the uptick. Additionally, home prices rose for the first time in three years in May, a sign that the market might be stabilizing.
According to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index, home prices have fallen more than 32 percent from their 2006 peaks. The pace of the decline slowed in May for the fourth consecutive month. “This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing” after plunging to levels last seen six years ago in 2003, noted David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee.
On the downside, the weakening job market battered consumer confidence in July, possibly delaying a quick economic recovery. The U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 46.6 in July from 49.3 in June. A recent Reuters survey had forecast that the June reading would be 49. This erosion in confidence is in tune with the rising percentage of Americans who say jobs are hard to find. Unemployment has hit a 26-year high, with several states reporting double-digit numbers.
“People are getting a bit discouraged. Jobs are not coming as quickly as expected,” according to John Silvia, chief economist with Wells Fargo. “This won’t be a V-shaped recovery for either the economy or the jobs market.”
Tags: economic recovery, economy, federal tax credit, home prices, home sales, homeowners, job insecurity, mortgage rates, real estate market, unemployment
Posted in Economics, Residential | No Comments »
Friday, August 7th, 2009
Finally, there’s encouraging news on the economic front. The economy declined just one percent during the second quarter of 2009, a rosier report than was expected. It is the strongest signal so far that the longest recession since the end of World War II is easing its grip.
In a report issued by the Department of Commerce covering the quarter from April through June, the one percent drop in the GDP stands in stark contrast to the 6.4 percent free fall that
characterized the first quarter of 2009. That was the biggest decline in almost 30 years. The economy shrank for four straight quarters for the first time since 1947, evidence of how severely the recession has hurt consumers and companies.
“The recession looks to have largely bottomed in the spring,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. “Businesses have made most of the adjustments they needed to make, and that will set up the economy to resume growing in the summer.”
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke believes the recession will end towards the end of the year. The Obama administration’s stimulus program that combines tax cuts with government spending enhanced second quarter economic activity. Economists believe the stimulus will have a greater impact through the second half of the year, and even in 2010.
The job market is expected to remain weak. The current 9.5 percent unemployment rate marks a 26-year high, and the Fed expects it to top 10 percent by year’s end. Companies will remain cautious about hiring until they are convinced that the recession is officially in the past.
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Commerce Department, economy, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, GDP, government, Obama administration, recession, stimulus package, unemployment rate
Posted in Development, Economics | No Comments »
Friday, July 24th, 2009
In his semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that although the economy is exhibiting “tentative signs of stabilization,” he plans to maintain a “highly accommodative” monetary policy for the time being. According to Bernanke, “The pace of decline appears to have slowed significantly. In light of the substantial economic slack and limited inflation pressures, monetary policy remains focused on fostering economic recovery.”
A Fed report related to Bernanke’s testimony notes that policy will be “tightened” as the labor market improves, as the economic recovery begins and as pressures limiting inflation “diminish”. Bernanke also defended the central bank’s moves to restore financial stability and urged lawmakers to make plans to rein in the deficit. The Federal Open Market Committee is keeping interest rates “exceptionally low”, with the benchmark lending rate in the zero to 0.25 percent range.
The Fed is planning to purchase as much as $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, $200 billion of federal agency debt by the end of 2009, and $300 billion in long-term Treasuries by September. Bernanke believes that some of these assets may remain on the Fed’s books for an undetermined period of time.
“Aggressive policy actions taken around the world last fall may well have averted the collapse of the global financial system,” Bernanke noted. “Many of the improvements in financial conditions can be traced, in part, to policy actions taken by the Federal Reserve.”
Bernanke’s comments point to the enormous influence of the Fed worldwide, not least of which is countries pegged to the U.S. dollar – like Kuwait – or that claim the dollar as their currency – like Panama.
Tags: Ben Bernanke, benchmark lending rate, central bank, congress, economic recovery, economy, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve, global financial system, House Financial Services Committee, Kuwait, monetary policy, mortgage-backed securities, Panama, recession, stabilization
Posted in Economics, Financing, General | No Comments »
Friday, June 19th, 2009
Hollywood’s Blockbuster Year
“Hooray for Hollywood”, said the 1937 lyric by Johnny Mercer, sung during the depths of the Great Depression. It appears the one industry that’s recession proof has done it again. While the world’s economy has gone into free fall, Hollywood is in a state of euphoria right now, buoyed by a box-office surge that has stumped even the experts. Suddenly, everyone is going to the movies, with ticket sales spiking 17.5 percent, to $1.7 billion, according to Media by Numbers, a box-office tracking company.
“Star Trek,” director JJ Abrams’ take on sci-fi’s most enduring franchise, is the biggest hit this year with a total gross of $223 million (it remained in the Top 5 with $8.4 million last week). Medium-budget films also performed well this year with “Taken”, starring Liam Neeson, bringing in more than $80 million, and “Gran Torino”, starring the 79-year-old Clint Eastwood, topping $130 million. The appropriately titled “Up” may give Hollywood even more wind in its sails this summer. The latest film from Pixar (a division of Apple, and easily Hollywood’s most consistent studio) brought in $44.2 million in its second week, with a 10-day take of $137.3 million. An interesting counterpoint to this is that movie merchandising sales are down. Thinkway Toys, whose range of products related to Pixar’s 2006 film “Cars” helped the film to a merchandise sales record of $5 billion, is not creating a single toy based on the new movie. Disney stores will offer only limited merchandise to promote “Up.”
The conventional wisdom would say that all this is obvious since people seek out escapism during a recession, particularly the type that’s priced right. However, Hollywood’s splendid performance is actually an anomaly and all the more remarkable when we consider history. Contrary to popular mythology, the film industry was not “Depression-Proof” in the 1930s but suffered a steep decline: attendance soared after the 1927 introduction of “talkies” (Al Jolson’s “The Jazz Singer” was the first sound film). But weekly viewership peaked at 90 million tickets in 1930, then declined by more than a third by 1933. Part of the problem was sound: to equip their theaters and sound stages, the studios tripled their debts during the mid- and late-’20s to $410 million. By 1933, attendance and revenues had fallen by forty percent. To hold on, the studios cut salaries and costs, and closed a full third of the nation’s theaters.
Tags: budget films, Cars, Clint Eastwood, costs, Depression Proof, Disney, economy, euphoria, films, Gran Torino, Great Depression, Hollywood, JJ Abrams, Johnny Mercer, Liam Neeson, Pixar, recession, recession proof, sound stages, Star Trek, studios, summer hits, Taken, Talkies, The Jazz Singer, theaters, ticket sales, tickets, Up
Posted in General | 1 Comment »
Monday, June 15th, 2009
Toxic commercial real estate loans could create losses up to $100 billion for small and mid-size banks by the end of 2010 if the economy worsens. According to a Wall Street Journal report – which applied the same criteria used by the federal government in its stress tests of 19 big banks — these institutions stand to lose up to $200 billion. In that worst-case scenario, 600 small and mid-sized
banks could see their capital contract to levels that federal regulators consider troubling, possibly even surpassing revenues. These losses would exceed home loan losses, which total approximately $49 billion.
The Journal, which based its analysis on data mined from banks’ filings with the Federal Reserve, are a grim reminder that the banking industry’s troubles are not confined to the 19 giants that have already completed the Treasury Department’s stress tests. More than 8,000 lenders nationwide are feeling the dual impacts of the recession and commercial real estate slowdown.
The banks analyzed by the Journal include 940 bank-holding companies that filed financial statements with the Fed for the year ending December 31. They range from large regional banks to mom-and-pop banks in small towns, as well as American-based subsidiaries of international banks.
Smaller banks are unlikely to appeal to bargain-hunting investors who are starting to recapitalize the industry’s giants. As a result, these institutions must boost their capital by selling assets and making fewer loans – which could make the recession last even longer than anticipated.
Tags: assets, bank-holding companies, banking industry, big banks, capital, capital contract, commercial real estate, economy, Fed, federal government, federal regulators, Federl Reserve, financial statements, home loan, institutions, international banks, investors, lenders, loans, mid-size banks, recapitalize, recession, regional impact, smaller banks, stress tests, Treasury Department
Posted in Development, Economics, Financing, General, Industrial, Office | No Comments »
Thursday, May 28th, 2009
Amidst the most dire financial crisis in a generation, Chicago has created a magnificent rejoinder to all the bad news. The Russian writer Dostoevsky once said that “Beauty will save the world.” Seeing Renzo Piano’s new Modern Wing at the Art Institute of Chicago makes you believe that it just might. First of all, how did they do it? A $300 million capital project when cities and states are tottering on the edge of bankruptcy? The answer is that the project is the denouement of a $385 million fundraising campaign — $300 million for the new building and $85 million for the endowment. All of it came from private patrons in Chicago, some of whom contributed multi-million-dollar sums — a sign of the enormous wealth generated in our city over the last business cycle. Fortunately, the capital campaign was completed before the downturn in the economy, but the larger museum’s budget will rise from $77 million to $97 million. This comes at a time when the Art Institute’s endowment has lost a quarter of its value since mid-2008 when it was $641 million, though the museum has been raising an average of around $60 million a year for the expansion. Meanwhile, in March, the Art Institute issued two series of bonds totaling $140 million to finance construction and other costs while waiting for pledges to come in.

Piano's design includes a facade of Indiana limestone, white steel, and aluminum topped with a "flying carpet" flat roof.
So how good is the building? For one, it increases the gallery’s space by 35 percent to one million square feet, making the Art Institute the second largest art museum in the U.S. after the Metropolitan Museum in New York (he said proudly as a Chicagoan). But the really singular thing about the new Modern Wing and what puts it, in my mind, beyond the Met, is that it is a masterpiece of design and urban planning. Joining Beaux Art with Prairie, the new building has been described as a temple of light. The key word is temple with all its suggestion of serenity and grace. Piano (he of the New York Times building and the Whitney Museum) has created a white steel, aluminum and Indiana limestone jewel box topped with a gorgeous flat roof (his flying carpet) and overhanging eaves (in Prairie fashion) which carefully refract light into the galleries below.
The interior is a marvel of the earthbound — wood floors and red wood paneling — and the airborne — vellum ceiling panels and a floating glass staircase that looks back and ahead at the architectural aspirations of our city. Piano is effusive in his fidelity to transparency and translucence in his work: “architecture must fly: it is made of emotions, tensions, transparency, “and it is not enough for the light to be perfect, you also need calm, serenity, and even a voluptuous quality linked to contemplation of works of art.”

The stunning Nichols Bridgeway, a 620-foot-long pedestrian walkway between the Modern Wing and Millennium Park, gives the impression of floating through treetops and buildings.
Then there’s the way the building is situated, offering us the best views yet of the sumptuous Millennium Park gardens and the Frank Gehry-designed Pritzker Pavilion. The genius of the building is that it makes the city part of its permanent collection, continually juxtaposing its pop art and abstract expressionist canvases against the northeast views of Lake Michigan and the gilded Loop skyline. The connection is fully realized at the end when the path snakes onto the stunning Nichols Bridgeway, a sloping, 620-foot-long pedestrian walkway that buoys you from the Modern Wing straight into Millennium Park. Lit like the drawbridge to a spaceship, the walkway gives the impression of floating through treetops and buildings. An unforgettable way to close. The new Modern Wing of the Art Institute is everything civic architecture should be — inspiring, provoking and, ultimately, a bellwether of better things ahead.
Tags: Art Institute, Art Institute of Chicago, bankruptcy, Beaux Art, bonds, capital capaign, Chicago, civic architecture, Dostoevsky, drawbridge, earthbound, economy, finance construction, financial crisis, flat roof, flying carpet, Frank Gehry, fundraising campaign, galleries, gallery, grace, Indiana, Lake Michigan, Loop, masterpiece of design, Met, Metropolitan Museum of New York, Millennium Park gardens, museum, museum budget, new Modern Wing, New York Times building, Nicholos Bridgeway, northeast, paneling, permanent collection, pledges, pop art, Prairie fashion, Pritzker Pavilion, private patrons, Renzo Piano, Russian, second largest art museum, serenity, skyline, temple, urban planning, US, vellum ceiling, white steel, Whitney Museum, wood floors, works of art
Posted in Development, Economics, Green, Office, Student Housing | No Comments »
Friday, May 1st, 2009
A rather unexpected source may rescue the stalled Chicago Spire condominium project – and pump significant money into Chicago’s battered economy by creating thousands of construction jobs. Representatives from the AFL-CIO Housing Investment Trusts are in early discussions with developer Shelbourne Development Group to revive construction of the twisting Santiago Calatrava-designed condominium tower, located on a high-profile 400 North Lake Shore Drive site.
According to Tom Villanova, president of the Chicago and Cook County Building Trades Council – which represents 24 trades locally – talks with Irish developer Garrett Kelleher started in January and are still in the very early stages. “The main thing is jobs,” according to Villanova. “We can use our own funds to benefit members. The Spire is going to be five years of construction, which is just phenomenal for us. It’s thousands of jobs.” If the deep-pocketed investment fund does invest in the Chicago Spire’s construction, the project would be a 100 percent union job.
The AFL-CIO has three investment trusts, including the Building Investment Trust. This pooled real estate fund has more than $2.5 billion in assets as of the 4th quarter of 2008. It was created in 1988 to provide risk-adjusted returns for participants, as well as a way to create commercial real estate construction jobs. To date, the fund has invested more than $1 billion in Chicago projects.
It’s a fascinating twist in the populism which is currently shaping our economy. As the country has lost 4.5 million jobs since December of 2007 and seen billions of dollars of abandoned projects, the idea of addressing the two in one bold stroke is fresh and original. With TALF addressing the securities side of the business, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac only funding a narrow group of product types, the idea of tapping the pension funds to capitalize major projects that generate employment for the AFL-CIO’s members is definitely worth exploring.
Tags: Building Investmetn Trust, Chicago, Chicago projects, Chicago Spire condominium tower, commercial real estate, construction jobs, Cook County, Cook County Building Trades Council, economy, employment, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Garrett Kelleher, local trades, pension funds, real estate fund, Santiago Calatrava, Shelbourne Development Group, Spire, TALF, Tom Villanova, union job
Posted in Development, Residential | No Comments »