Posts Tagged ‘Eurozone’

World Bank Head Predicts No “Double-Dip” Recession

Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

World Bank President Robert Zoellick believes the world will not slide into a double-dip recession.   Zoellick was in Singapore, attending an economic conference amid plummeting world stock prices and worries over a slowdown in U.S. economic growth.  Zoellick believes the United States and the world will avoid a “double-dip” recession, but admitted that growth is likely to remain sluggish and prospects are uncertain.  Zoellick said the world is entering a “dangerous period,” noting that the United States could reassure markets with steps to put the brakes on increasing its debt, rather than making deep cuts in spending.

Zoellick’s comments add pressure on European officials who are trying to contain a sovereign debt crisis that threatens Italy, whose government bonds in euros have declined a record 11 consecutive days.  Finland has fostered division among policy makers by looking for collateral for loans to Greece, the first of the three euro-region nations to receive bailouts so far.  American and European economies are stalling and feeble global growth are impacting Asia, Singapore’s Minister of Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnam said.  Growth in the U.S. and Europe may be just one percent.

“We’re already at stall speed in the U.S. and Europe, which means we’re now more likely than not to see a recession,” Shanmugaratnam said.  Companies are holding back spending and consumers globally lack confidence.  Zoellick tamped down the likelihood of a “double-dip” global recession in comments to reporters in Singapore today.   Still, “we are now seeing a particularly sensitive time in the euro zone,” the World Bank chief said.  “A number of issues are converging.” 

“These things are very hard to predict because if you have events trigger uncertainty in Europe, that will flow back to the U.S.,” Zoellick said.  The eurozone’s performance “depends on the political decisions moving forward,” he said.  The euro will survive in the next five years, although the question over membership of the common currency is one that Europeans must answer.  “Sometimes people hope that you can muddle through by providing financing and liquidity, in the case of Europe, from the European Financial Stability Facility or the European Central Bank,” Zoellick said.  “They now recognize that’s not going to happen and instead what you see is with some of the weaker economies, that the austerity policies are pushing them into slower and slower growth and so this could be a downward spiral.”

According to Zoellick, recent European Central Bank government bond purchases have given temporary monetary liquidity to markets.  “The policies that have been pursued by the EU up to now can buy time, but parliaments and the public have to come to terms with fundamental questions,” Zoellick said.  One direction is to deepen the fiscal union.”

“They’ve tried to pump money into it, they’ve tried in the past month.  The ECB bought a lot of bonds.  But, I think dealing with these problems through liquidity measures will not be sufficient,” Zoellick said.  “Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and I from a different position at the World Bank have been trying to prod people to recognize some of these questions.”  Lagarde, who told the Federal Reserve’s annual conference that European banks need urgent capitalization, angered some European policymakers and politicians with her opinions.

“People should not underestimate the European response, but Europeans should not be fooled that that type of response will deal with the fundamental questions that still need to be addressed,” Zoellick said.  The markets have been hoping for additional monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve to relieve global growth concerns, but Zoellick said that monetary policy alone won’t do the job.  Rather, he said, the real solution to Europe’s crisis must be found to deal with the crisis.  “This one is really even beyond the finance ministers’ pay grade.  These are going to be the decisions that have to be made by the heads of government and supported by their parliaments,” he said.

American markets analyst Peter Kenny of Knight Capital said “We have a eurozone that is an apoplectic frenzy of just trying to right the ship.  If you can find some stabilizing influence in the eurozone to give the global markets some confidence, I’d be shocked.”  Parliaments in Germany and France currently debating the extent of their countries’ contribution to the European Financial Stability Facility, the fund set up to bail out any eurozone nations struggling with their debt obligations. 

Richard Jeffrey, chief investment officer at Cazenove Capital Management, said that “Money that the key worry for the markets was the health of the world economy.  “If the world economy is slowing down or perhaps even moving into recession – I think that is less likely, but that is what people fear – then that has negative implications for the financial system and the banking sector.  The debt problems in the peripheral European economies rumble on, of course, but again their debt problems are helped if there is growth.  If there isn’t growth in the economies, then their debt problems become more difficult to support, so this is all interlinked.”

Italian Debt Crisis Rattles Europe’s Third Biggest Economy

Monday, July 25th, 2011

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he would speed the passage of a 40 billion-Euro ($56 billion) deficit-cutting plan to stop a market selloff that threatens Europe’s single currency.  The “crisis prompts us to speed up” approval of the budget cuts, Berlusconi said since Italian stocks lost nearly 7.5 percent over two sessions and bond yields soared to the highest in 10 years.  Referring to the austerity plan, Berlusconi vowed “to bolster its content and draw up additional measures aimed at balancing the budget by 2014.  The crisis in confidence that has battered financial markets and hit Italy in recent days is a threat for everyone in the Eurozone, the most concrete element of European unity,” Berlusconi said.  He noted that Italy’s banks are “solid” and his government and opposition parties are determined to defend Europe’s third largest economy.  Italy has the world’s 7th largest economy and the Eurozone’s third largest.

The initial signs that Italy was in trouble emerged last week, when investors began dumping Italian bonds and selling off the stocks of banks such as UniCredit that are heavily exposed to Italian debt.  That accelerated  three days after Berlusconi drove worries about Rome’s commitment to the passage of the proposed budget cuts by snarking about finance minister Giulio Tremonti.  ”I think Italy is in a much better position than Greece still, but clearly the Europeans now need to make sure that Italy doesn’t go,” said Jonathan Tepper, partner at Variant Perception, a London research firm.  ”That would be bad, and not just for the Europeans.”

Berlusconi said that the plunge in the country’s stocks and bonds in recent days is a threat for the unity of Europe and the Eurozone.  “The crisis in confidence that has battered financial markets and hit Italy in recent days is a threat for everyone and that effects the single currency, the most concrete element of European unity,” he said, noting that his government and opposition parties are determined to defend Italy and that he is supported by his European Union allies.

“Berlusconi and Co. must back down and give (Finance Minister Giulio) Tremonti full support immediately,” said Marc Ostwald, a fixed-income strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London.  Of all Eurozone nations that are sensitive “to rising debt servicing costs, Italy tops the list, so it can’t afford for this colossal rise in long-term rates to be anything other than very short-term.”

Roben Farzad of Bloomberg Business Week said on National Public Radio’s “All Things Considered”,  “Profligacy.  Look, I mean, the Euro was great.  The Eurozone was great when it all worked out and had this single currency and you can partake in cheaper labor and people going across the borders easily and lower cost of capital for everyone.  But when times are bad, i.e., this great global recession of ours, suddenly you have a dynamic where the haves and the have-nots are exposed for what they are.  And the smaller countries, the more peripheral countries, turns out that they really borrowed beyond their means.  But Italy is the perennial sick man of Europe.  It’s a slow growing economy.  It’s not monolithic.  The south tends to be poor.  The north is wealthier and more industrious and has the majority of the finance and the capital and whatnot.  The problem is, when times are good and risk is perceived as being overrated, you have the international debt capital markets being very easy with loaning money to countries.  And slow-growing countries like Italy and Japan, if you look at their last 20 years, they tend to over-borrow in order to make ends meet.  Believe it or not, Italy is the third most leveraged country in the planet.”

James Walston offers this analysis in the Telegraph.  According to Walston,  “For those of us not versed in the dark arts of accounting or international finance, there is little more solid than money; I have it or I don’t, I can borrow it or lend it and measure it down to the last penny.  But confidence is an altogether different commodity, far more abstract and difficult to gauge.  Italy is trying to persuade us that the world should have confidence in both its political and its financial stability.  It will not be easy.  The ratings agencies’ evaluation of a country’s creditworthiness are one measure of stability; another is investor confidence in the bond markets about Italy’s solvency.  On both scores, the omens are getting worse for Italy day by day.  Until recently, Italy had avoided the worst of the world and European crises.  There was no housing bubble, as Italian banks demand copper-bottomed collateral before they will lend the ordinary house buyer a cent.  There were almost no toxic assets, as banks are amazingly conservative in their investment policies.”

European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Draghi urged the Italian government to move ahead with further measures to re-balance the budget by 2014.  “The substance of future measures aimed at balancing the budget by 2014 should be defined as rapidly as possible,” he said.  “This is what markets are looking at above all today.”  Additionally, Draghi criticized the European policy response to Italy’s debt crisis, saying policymakers must “bring certainty to the process by which sovereign debt crises are managed” with clearly defined objectives and instruments.  International Monetary Fund economists have urged “decisive implementation” by Italy to cut its enormous public debt, pointing out that its austerity plan is based on buoyant forecasts with measures weighted toward the future.

Greece Has Worst Credit in the World – Below Pakistan and Ecuador

Tuesday, July 5th, 2011

European finance ministers are working to resolve a quandary over how to talk banks into “voluntarily” contributing to a second Greece bailout and avoiding a destructive debt default. This attempt to rescue Greece’s finances hinges on how far banks, pension funds and insurers will accept new terms on old debts prior to repayment by Athens.  Greece has accumulated 350 billion euros ($500 billion) of debt, more than its entire economy produces in 18 months.  The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that requiring private investors to help could see the credit ratings agencies deem Athens to be in default, an enormous risk for the entire eurozone.

European finance chiefs are hammering out a Greek rescue to prevent sovereign default after the country was given the world’s lowest credit rating by Standard & Poor’s.  According to Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager, “We need to make it as voluntary as possible to prevent triggering scenarios that cost more and make financial markets lose all confidence in the eurozone.”

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is firm in his belief that taxpayers in the eurozone’s biggest economy will be willing to lend Greece more money — but only if banks and private creditors take their own hits.  “The German government is ready to participate in supplementary measures,” Schaeuble said, but, “of course, a role for the private sector is an element.  We are in discussions.”  Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter echoed this hardline stance, noting that “we can’t leave the profits in the hands of the banks and the losses in the hands of taxpayers.”  The chairman of the 17-nation currency Eurogroup, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, said the finance ministers had come together “to examine different options…all the options.”  Additionally, Germany is supporting a bond swap that would push out the maturities on Greece’s debt by seven years, giving it more time to rebalance its economy and sell state assets.

According to Finnish Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen, “Most of the countries have indicated that some form of private sector involvement is crucial,  I want to underline that we have to avoid, whatever it takes, the next financial crisis.  The balance is very difficult.”  A new aid package for Greece is expected to be finalized at an upcoming European Union summit.

A majority of German banks say they can withstand Greek debt restructuring, according to Christoph Schmidt, an economic adviser to Chancellor Angela Merkel.  A “soft restructuring” would have little effect on Greece’s debt burden and eventually creditors — including the European Central Bank — will have to write off part of their Greek sovereign debt, Schmidt said.

A more pessimistic viewpoint was expressed by European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer who said any attempt by eurozone governments to fine-tune Greek debt that results in a default means financing the nation’s entire economy.  “Our position is extremely simple: if there is a solution that avoids a risk of default, it seems suitable,” Noyer said.  “If you can’t find it, it’s better to avoid touching the debt.  If, despite everything, you try to reduce the debt and you provoke a risk of default, you’ll have to finance the entire Greek economy.  We’ve gone as far as possible in our interpretation of the quality of debt.  If we have debt in default, it will be impossible to consider that we have quality debt.  Therefore it will become impossible to accept this debt as collateral.”  Believing that restructuring or rescheduling can lead to a relaxation of budget plans is a “dangerous illusion,” he said.  “Such operations do not in themselves provide any new financing.  They always lead, at least initially, to a further drop in confidence and lower capital inflows, which increases the adjustment effort needed.”  Noyer also rejected suggestions that the ECB’s stance was related to concerns about the ability of European banks to absorb losses on Greek debt, or even about the ECB taking losses on its own Greek holdings.

The position “has nothing to do with the situation of French or German or European banks, and nothing to do with the fact that the euro system holds Greek debt,” he said.  “That’s rubbish.  Our one and only concern is the financing of the Greek economy.  We must absolutely avoid anything that could result in a default,” Noyer said.  “It would be an extraordinarily serious risk for the financing of the Greek economy and would be one for a certain number of euro-zone regions after that.”

Greece now has the dubious honor of being the lowest-rated sovereign in the world, below Ecuador, Jamaica, Pakistan and Grenada. According to Standard & Poor’s, “In our view, Greece is increasingly likely to restructure its debt in a manner that, under the conditions of any package of additional funding provided by Greece’s official creditors, would result in one or more defaults under our criteria.”

Portugal Becomes Third of PIGS To Seek EU Bailout

Monday, June 6th, 2011

Portugal has become the third European nation to accept a financial bailout to the tune of € 78 billion, with € 12 billion going directly to the Iberian nation’s banks.  It is the third of four PIGS nations (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) to require a bailout.  Caretaker Prime Minister Jose Socrates announced that he had reached preliminary agreement with the European Union (EU), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) for a three-year package of support, including help for Lisbon’s banks.  Portugal’s bailout means three of the eurozone’s 17 countries can be described as being in financial intensive care.  Greece accepted €110 billion of bilateral loans last year; Ireland signed an € 85 billion bailout last November — with the long-term fiscal and economic prognosis for all three nations still uncertain.  Socrates believes that he has secured a good deal, saying, “There are no financial assistance programs that are not demanding.”

The eurozone’s three patients are on three different medicine regimes: Greece’s loans must be repaid over seven years at an average 4.2 percent interest rate; Ireland’s over seven years at an average 5.8 percent rate (although it is trying to change the rate); and Portugal’s is still under discussion.  “I think the terms inevitably are going to be different in each country because the circumstances are…different,” said Eamon Gilmore, Ireland’s minister for foreign affairs.  “The government would be very fed up too if another country was getting a bailout deal better than the terms that we are getting,” he said.

The capital of these banks isn’t really the main problem at the moment.  The focus is their dependency on the ECB for liquidity and how they can get out of that and somehow fund themselves in the wholesale market again,” said Carlo Mareels, banks analyst for RBC Capital Markets.  Portugal’s banks have been unable to raise funds in wholesale markets for the last year, demonstrating exactly how intertwined the fortunes of the state and lenders has become in eurozone countries.  Margins have been squeezed as banks compete for retail deposits, which strains their capital positions.  The declining value of their government bonds makes a bad situation even worse.

Simonetta Nardin, a spokeswoman for the IMF, l confirmed that officials had reached an agreement with the Portuguese government ”on a comprehensive economic program.  We have said from the beginning that it is important that any program should have broad cross-party support and we will continue our engagement with the opposition parties to establish that this is the case.”  The bailout requires EU approval.  Portugal’s prime minister said that he would present the deal to opposition parties and called on them to show ”a sense of responsibility and a superior sense of national interest” to ensure Portugal receives emergency financing quickly.  Under the plan, the deficit would need to be reduced to 5.9 percent of GDP this year; 4.5 percent in 2012; and three percent in 2013.

Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, predicted that Portugal’s GDP will decline by two percent in 2011. “Against this background, while the confirmation of the bailout should provide some reassurance that Portugal will be able meet its upcoming bond redemptions, it won’t put an end to speculation that – along with Greece and perhaps others – it will sooner or later need to undertake some form of debt restructuring,” he said.

The bailout needs wide-ranging cross-party support because Socrates’ government collapsed last month, which set off a round of increased borrowing rates.  Additionally, it forced Lisbon to seek financial assistance from the EU.  The winner of the June 5 general election will implement it.  Agreement on the loan terms is required by June 15, when Lisbon needs to redeem € 4.9 billion worth of bonds.

European Central Bank Raises Interest Rates to Fight Inflation

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to follow the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent decision to raise interest rates and will hold off until there is looming inflation.  The ECB’s move may be the first of several this year as high oil costs drive consumer prices above its target.  That’s not to say that some members of the Fed’s policy-setting committee are not proposing an increase in the overnight lending rate by three quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2011.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and New York Fed president William Dudley both believe that the economy is still to weak to remove support.  “The old analogy that the Federal Reserve removes the punch bowl just when the party gets going doesn’t apply here because, well, there is no party,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, NJ.  “There’s not even a balloon in sight.”

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, also sees the ECB’s move as having minimal impact on the Fed. “I don’t see that a move by the ECB has any particular influence on our policy posture here in the United States,” Lockhart said.  “Obviously by increasing the differential between short-term rates in the U.S. and short-term rates in the eurozone, you can see some influence” because “exchange markets are affected by short-term rates.  I think some of the dollar selloff reflects some extent of that.”

The ECB “will hike twice in quick succession in April and June to satisfy the core economies’ demand for tighter policy,” said Stuart Thomson, a Glasgow-based money manager at Ignis Asset Management, which oversees about $120 billion.  “But the sensitivity of the peripheral economies to higher rates, both in terms of overall debt and proportion of consumer loans tied to variable interest rates, means the central bank will pause over the summer.”

The Frankfurt-based ECB raised its refinance rate to 1.25 percent from just one percent, the first increase since July 2008.  The ECB also boosted other rates by a quarter point, raising its marginal lending facility rate to two percent and its overnight deposit facility rate to 0.5 percent.  According to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, “We did not decide it was the first of a series of rate increases,” emphasizing that the central bank will “always do what is necessary” to assure that inflation expectations across the 17-nation eurozone are given due consideration.

The ECB has forked over billions of dollars in the last year, purchasing bonds from troubled European nations such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal – all of which have been bailed out by the European Union – to assure that they stay afloat.  The bank, whose intention is to focus on inflation is raising interest rates to combat rising prices, a major concern in Germany, which is the ECB’s most influential member.

“The ECB has decided that it will tighten policy for the core countries like Germany that are doing well and leave the non-standard measures support in place for the periphery countries,” said Silvio Peruzzo, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.  “The rate increase is appropriate and there will be another one as early as June.”

Basel III Could Slightly Impact Economic Growth

Wednesday, January 5th, 2011

Basel III Could Slightly Impact Economic GrowthThe Basel Committee on Banking Supervision overhaul of bank capital rules may cut global economic growth by 0.22 percent, which is seen as a reasonable amount.  This will occur over an eight-year transitional period during which the rules are put into place, according to the Basel committee and Financial Stability Board (FSB).  According to the FSB and the Basel committee, “The transition to stronger capital standards is likely to have a modest impact on aggregate output.”

Regulators are reassuring lenders and companies that the Basel III overhaul may force banks to cut back on lending, thus hurting the economic recovery.  According to the Institute of International Finance, an earlier version of the plan would have cut economic output by 3.1 percent in the eurozone, the United States and Japan from 2011 through 2015.  Etay Katz, a partner at the London-based law firm of Allen & Overy LLP, thinks the report “leaves quite a lot more to be desired.  I think bankers, when they see this, will be skeptical of the rigor with which this analysis has been conducted.”  Katz thinks the impact of Basel liquidity rules was not taken into account.

According to the new numbers, yearly growth could be as much as 0.03 percentage points below the baseline scenario – and that assumes that banks won’t have to comply with the revised regulations – over eight years.  Regulators are overhauling bank capital and liquidity prerequisites because the Basel II rules did not protect lenders during the financial crisis.  The Basel III rules have been approved by the G20 nations.

Ireland Accepts EU/IMF Bailout

Tuesday, December 14th, 2010

Ireland Accepts EU/IMF BailoutAgainst its will, Ireland is now in a state of receivership mandated by the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in an effort to resolve the Emerald Isle’s debt crisis.   European central bankers have paid £111 billion into Ireland’s banks to prevent damage to the euro in what is being jokingly referred to as the “Oliver Cromwell package.”  EU president Herman Van Rompuy described the action as a “survival crisis.”

Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen will delay any decision on whether to proceed with national elections until the 2011 budget is passed and details of the international bailout package are negotiated “I’m saying that it is imperative for this country that the budget is passed,” Cowen said.  “I’m also saying that it is highly important in the interests of political stability that that happens.  It’s very important for people to understand that any further delay in this matter in fact weakens this country’s position.”

Cowen asked for significant “financial assistance” from the EU and the IMF and promised. spending cuts and tax increases.  This request came shortly after the prime minister said Ireland had “made no application for external support” for its debt-laden banks.  Dublin has spent billions trying to prop up its embattled banking sector.

Ireland is the second EU country, after Greece, to seek outside help to stabilize its finances.   That nation has been under strong pressure from its European neighbors – primarily Germany and France — to apply for a bailout, which they hope will calm investors and prevent a crisis of confidence in the euro.

“It is important that this state continues to fund itself in a stable way,” said Brian Lenihan, Ireland’s Finance Minister, “that economic continuity is preserved, that there is no danger to the borrowing which the state requires.”  Ireland’s low corporate tax rate – just 12.5 percent- — will not enter into the discussion because the country wants to attract large companies.

Jon Levy: European Real Estate Opportunities

Monday, April 26th, 2010

Jon Levy is a European Union analyst with Eurasia Group and a frequent commentator on European issues, appearing on CNN, CNBC and NPR.  He was previously director of national security policy for John Kerry's presidential campaign. Jon Levy is a European Union analyst with Eurasia Group and a frequent commentator on European issues, appearing on CNN, CNBC and NPR.  He was previously director of national security policy for John Kerry’s presidential campaign.  In a recent interview for the Alter NOW podcasts, Levy discussed several factors shaping European real estate markets – as well as European investment in U.S. assets.  His comments touch on the outlook for eastern Europe, investment thinking in Germany and some of the macroeconomic challenges facing the U.K.  Levy’s comments add a unique perspective to some of the key trends we are watching in the European markets.

A few insights…

German open-ended real estate mutual funds are expected to invest 12 billion euros (approximately $18 billion) in Europe and the United States over the next few years.  These funds have already raised three billion euros in the first eight months of 2009, reinforcing a sense that – at least for Germany – the worst of the financial crisis is over and markets are stabilizing.  Germany is now one of the most aggressive investors in American real estate, behind only Australia.  These funds display a preference for high-quality, income-producing assets.

Levy noted that there has been dramatic tightening of credit and liquidity in Eastern Europe.  However, as he notes, the ability to adopt the euro – while an uneven and politically charged process – provides an exit from this environment – a key distinction with other emerging market crises.  Furthermore, within Eastern Europe, there are significant differences in outlook, with several regions and sectors poised for growth.  This situation, Levy argues, may present attractive entry points as broader credit and liquidity conditions lead to more favorable asset prices.

In the United Kingdom, an estimated $350 billion is needed to refinance commercial real estate loans in a market where many properties have gone into default and values have declined 44 percent since 2007.  The leasing pool in the City of London has been dramatically reduced as there is a consolidation in the banking and asset management industry.  There is a strong emerging view that the UK needs to diversify its economy away from financial services and back into manufacturing and agriculture to achieve a healthier balance.  Levy also provides some insight into the situation in the UK.

Eurasia Group is the world’s leading political risk and consulting firm that helps corporations make informed business decisions in countries around the world.

 
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