Posts Tagged ‘Fed Funds rate’

Wheels of Manufacturing Restarting

Monday, January 11th, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Index shows better-than-expected performance.  Manufacturing is gradually on the upswing, according to the December ISM Manufacturing Index, which rose to 55.9 from November’s 53.6 reading.  A gain to just 54.3 was expected, so the news is encouraging.  In terms of inflation, prices paid climbed to 61.5; an increase to 57.2 was forecast.  This is great news for a sector that saw both the steepest declines in manufacturing and trade inventories since 1949 and the fall of industrial production since 1946.

According to the ISM report, “At 55.9 for December, the index not only surpassed expectations of a rise to 54.3, but also posted its strongest reading since April, 2006.  The gains in the components were broad-based with new orders rising to 65.5 in December from 60.3 in November, marking its strongest reading since December, 2004.  Production rose to 61.8 from November’s 59.9, while the employment component increased to 52.0 from the prior month’s 50.8, marking the third consecutive month in expansionary territory.  We expect the Fed to help both sustain the recovery and heal labor markets by leaving the Fed Funds rate at its current low level until the final quarter of 2010.”

“The Giant Pool of Money”

Thursday, May 21st, 2009

$70 trillion dollars.  That’s all the money in the world, or to get technical, the subset of global dollarsavings known as fixed-income securities.  And it almost doubled from $36 trillion in just six years.  How did this happen?

The Federal Reserve presided over the creation of what we have learned (the hard way) is a monster of unregulated investment vehicles run amok, resulting in the global credit crisis.

In the words of National Public Radio’s international business reporter Adam Davidson, “What he (former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan) is saying is he’s going to keep the Fed Funds rate at the absurdly low level of one percent.  It tells every investor in the world:  you are not going to make any money at all on U.S. treasury bonds for a very long time.  Go somewhere else.  We can’t help you.  And so the global pool of money looked around for some low-risk, high-return investment.  And among the many things they put their money into, there was one thing they fell in love with.”

Investment companies fell in love with securitizing mortgages, bundling them into enormous pools – in some cases, pools of as many as 16 million loans — and selling them in shares to investors.  To make the pool of mortgages even larger, they created vehicles like adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), subprime mortgages and no-income, no-asset loans that allowed people to buy homes or take out home equity loans that they simply could not afford.  Last 02192006_iraglassSeptember, this house of cards came crashing down, setting off the global credit crisis and making an ongoing recession the worst in a generation.

Click here  to listen to the full “The Giant Pool of Money” podcast from “This American Life” to learn exactly what happened and why.  I know of no better description of how the recession happened.