Posts Tagged ‘Goldman Sachs’

Hedge Fund Honcho’s Bet Pays Off Big

Monday, February 1st, 2010

David Tepper’s shopping trip for cheap Bank of America and Citigroup stocks a $7 billion windfall.  David Tepper’s shrewd bet that the nation would avoid a second Great Depression inspired him to buy bank shares at rock-bottom rates, a move that has earned his Appaloosa Management hedge fund an estimated $7 billion worth of profit during 2009.  Last winter, Tepper invested heavily in Bank of America stocks selling for $3 a share, as well as Citigroup, Inc. preferred stock, then priced at a bargain-basement $1 per share.

Tepper, a philanthropist who funded the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University, made a gamble that is paying off in a big way - surprising skeptics who insisted that he was making a costly error.  “I felt like I was alone,” Tepper said.  There were days when “no one was even bidding.”  An improving market has seen Appaloosa Management earn a 120 percent return.  As a result of those gains, Tepper now manages approximately $12 billion, making his company one of the world’s largest hedge funds.

In general, hedge funds had a bad year in 2008, when they experienced a 19 percent decline.  Approximately 1,500 funds - 16 percent of the total - went out of business in 2008.  The funds had a far better year in 2009.  According to Hedge Fund Research, Inc., they are seeing a 19 percent return, the best annual gains in 10 years.

Alan Shealy, a long-time Tepper client, says “Investing with David is like flying, with hours of boredom followed by bouts of sheer terror.  He’s the quintessential opportunist, investing in any asset class, but you have to have a cast-iron stomach.”

What Glitters Isn’t Always Gold

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Gold fever seems to be on the decline as the precious metal fell $90 an ounce in just two days after the commodity reached a high of $1,226 an ounce in early December.  The lion’s share of the blame for the decline was placed on newbie investors, who got skittish in their belief that gold is an investment safety net.  Gold isn’t down and out yet.  According to Goldman Sachs’ precious metals group, if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at current low levels, the price of an ounce could climb as high as $1,350 next year.Newbie investors shaking up the price of gold

Dennis Gartman, a trader and publisher of the Gartman Letter investment newsletter, said “Too many naïve investors got involved in gold.  They must be taken out and given a good caning.”  Professional investors are likely to stay away from gold for a while, a move that will “inflict pain on the people who came late to the market” in coming months.

A somewhat different viewpoint is offered by Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist with Wells Capital Management, who believes that the tumult makes it unclear why gold prices are acting erratically.  “Gold has been the answer to inflation; gold has been the answer to disinflation; gold has been the answer to too much debt and to the China bubble.  But I have never known an asset that was the answer to everything,” Paulsen said.  He believes that gold is currently overpriced and vulnerable to fluctuations.

Ibbotson Associates notes that someone who invested in gold in 1980 would have seen an average annual yield of 2.6 percent.  As attractive as gold looks now, compare that with stocks which averaged an 11.2 percent return despite last year’s slump.

Central Banks Tighten the Purse Strings A Little

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

The world’s central banks are easing up slightly on the generosity they have shown over the past year when the financial crisis threatened to destroy the global economy. After European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said his bank would withdraw some liquidity operations, the euro rose.  Similarly the pound went up after the Bank of England started purchasing bonds at a slower rate.  The Federal Reserve detailed the conditions in which it would raise interest rates - though it hasn’t acted on that yet.Central banks take initial steps to see if global economies can thrive without being propped up.

Juergen Michels, chief European economist at Citigroup, Inc., in London, says that “As soon as the first exit measures are put in place, there’s the risk that the market overreacts.  We’ll probably see a tightening of financing conditions, and hard-fought-for improvements will be in jeopardy.”

These actions mean that investors will have to operate without the liquidity that has been propping up the world’s economies, even as new concerns about additional asset bubbles grow.  Mistiming the withdrawal of support could spoil the fragile recovery.  Central banks are changing course at a time when factories are restocking inventories, and the price of commodities like gold and sugar are climbing.  The MSCI All-Countries World Index has soared 66 percent since March and sugar has increased 90 percent this year.

“There are all kinds of risks,” said Jim O’Neill, chief global economist at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., in London.  “We don’t know how much of the improvement in markets is due to the central banks’ largesse, and neither do they.  They’re pretty nervous, but they’ve got to get out of it at some stage.”

First CMBS Under TALF Is on the Horizon

Monday, November 9th, 2009

first-cmbs-under-talf-is-on-horizonThe markets are keeping a close eye on a transaction that may jump start the commercial property debt market, even though the Federal Reserve has expressed some uneasiness with the deal.  If the transaction is successful, it could pave the way for the initial sale of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) under the government Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF).  The credit-hungry commercial real estate industry is hoping that the debt sale by shopping center owner Developers Diversified Realty Corporation will lead to additional CMBS sales.

Developers Diversified has obtained a $400 million loan from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., which is intended to be converted into a CMBS offering through TALF.  The Fed, keeping the taxpayers’ best interests in mind, has reservations about financing the transaction since it involves a single borrower.  These are considered riskier than deals involving multiple borrowers, where the risk is spread over different borrowers, building type and even location.

“The Fed is being very conservative, very diligent in reviewing collateral and very risk-averse,” said Frank Innaurato, managing director at Realpoint LLC, a credit-ratings firm.  Currently, the Fed is reviewing the transaction, which involves 28 shopping centers with stable cash flows.  If the Fed says “no” to the transaction, Goldman Sachs is said to be considering selling the $400 million loan outside TALF.

TALF was created to revive the CMBS market, as well as jump start securitized debt markets by offering low-cost financing from the Fed so investors can once again purchase these securities.  The program lets investors borrow as much as 95 percent of the bonds’ value by pledging the securities as collateral - meaning the risk is on taxpayers if there is a default.

Geithner: The Patient is Out of Intensive Care

Friday, May 15th, 2009

It’s been a long, strange ride, but the nation’s financial system is finally starting what is certain to be an extended healing process. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner believes that “the financial system is starting to heal” as he promised to move returned bail-out funds to community banks that need help.bandaid-on-broken-and-cracked-piggy-bank

Improved lending circumstances are tempering concerns about systemic risk and reduced leverage at banks, according to Geithner, who noted that “a substantial part of the adjustment process” for the financial sector is now coming to an end.

Several of the larger banks - Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Capital One Financial - want to repay the funds they received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.  The Treasury will increase the money community banks can access to five percent of risk-weighted assets from three percent.  The government has already invested in preferred stock in 300 smaller banks.

“As in any financial crisis, the damage has been unfair and indiscriminate,” Geithner said.  “Ordinary Americans, small business owners and community banks who did the right thing and played by the rules are suffering from the actions of those who took on too much risk.”

Why the optimism?  Geithner points to declines in corporate bond spreads, lower risk premiums in inter-bank markets and cheaper default insurance on big banks as evidence that the financial system is healing.  “These are welcome signs, but the process of financial recovery and repair is going to take time,” he cautions.

The Federal Government Takes First Steps to Bail Out Banks

Tuesday, October 21st, 2008

The Treasury Department is spending the first $250 billion of the $700 billion rescue bill that Congress recently approved in an attempt to defuse the financial crisis that has dominated the headlines for weeks.  According to a recent article on GlobeSt.com, the move - which partially nationalizes the banking system - is seen by some as conflicting with the free-market principles that typically have characterized the American economy. To shore up the United States banking system, the Treasury Department is partially nationalizing nine banks by using $125 billion to purchase minority stakes in major financial institutions.  Although the banks haven’t been named, they are believed to include Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, State Street and Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.  The Treasury Department is also expected to make the remaining $125 billion available to banks and thrifts across the country to purchase their preferred shares.

According to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, “Today’s actions are not what we ever wanted to do, but are what we must do to restore confidence to our financial system.  The needs of the economy require that our financial institutions not take this new capital to hoard it, but to deploy it.”  Just weeks before the presidential election, outgoing President George W. Bush sees the move as a short-term measure.  “The government’s role will be limited and temporary.  These measures are not intended to take over the free market, but to preserve it,” Bush said.

The question now is whether the banks will use the capital as the government intends - lend it to businesses and consumers again - or will they use it to sweeten their own balance sheets?  The government, no doubt, intends to exert significant pressure on the institutions to loosen credit so that people can start buying big-ticket items like houses and cars again.