Posts Tagged ‘India’

Great Recession Had Little Impact on CO2 Emissions

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Worldwide CO2, emissions have risen by nearly 50 percent in the past several decades, with 2010 now holding the record as the year with the most greenhouse gas emissions on record.  Burning fossil fuels released more than 36 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2010, due primarily to growth in China, India, and the United States.  Deforestation is another core cause.

Going back half a century, nothing seems to have set back emissions for many years and that includes the Great Recession that started in late 2008, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. Other studies indicate that mankind has burned approximately 50 percent of available fossil fuels if we don’t want the climate to warm by more than two degrees Celsius.  More to the point, we’ll need zero or negative emissions and emissions to peak sometime this decade to avoid any further warming.

Emissions rose approximately 510 million metric tons of carbon to reach 9.14 billion tons in 2010, the most in records dating to 1959, according to the Global Carbon Project.  That represents a 5.9 percent increase, the largest since 2003, when they jumped six percent.  The 2010 global emissions were 33.5 billion tons when converted to carbon dioxide.

“We’re going exactly in the wrong direction for limiting global warming,” said Corinne Le Quere, co-author of the Global Carbon Project’s report and a director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, England.  “Governments need to develop ways to boost the economy using renewable energy,” she said.

“Global CO2 emissions since 2000 are tracking the high end of the projections used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which far exceed two degrees warming by 2100,” Le Quere said.  “Yet governments have pledged to keep warming below two degrees to avoid the most dangerous aspects of climate change, such as widespread water stress and sea level rise, and increases in extreme climatic events.”

There’s growing evidence that 2011 will almost certainly be the 10th warmest on record, and the hottest featuring the La Nina phenomenon that brings cooler waters to the surface of the Pacific Ocean, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  “There’s clearly a warming trend.  That’s supported by other indicators such as disappearing Arctic sea ice, melting glaciers and rising sea levels,” Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring at the U.K. Met Office, whose own temperature estimates feed into the WMO data, said.

“The global financial crisis was an opportunity to move the global economy away from a high-emissions trajectory.  Our results provide no indication of this happening,” according to the study’s authors.  The study was issued at a planet-warming gases panelat U.N. climate talks in Durban, South Africa.

Writing on Times’ Ecocentric blog, Bryan Walsh notes that “The study underscores just how little we’ve done to slow the increase in carbon emissions. Since 1990 –the base year for the Kyoto Protocol –carbon emissions from fossil fuels have increased by 49 percent, making a mockery of that global treaty’s ambition to cut emissions by at least five percent.  And it’s getting worse –on average, fossil fuel emissions have risen by 3.1 percent a year between 2000 and 2010, three times the rate of increase seen during the 1990s, even as global warming has become a global concern.

According to a Nature blog, “What’s new in this analysis is that it puts the recovery in context with previous global crises.  It also updates a novel type of carbon dioxide accounting pioneered by lead author Glen Peters, who is at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo.  Usually, and under the Kyoto Protocol, carbon dioxide emissions are identified with the nation that produces them.  Yet rich countries have largely achieved cuts in CO2 emissions since 1990 by importing goods made elsewhere.  Around one-fifth of China’s emissions, for example, come from making goods demanded by consumers in other nations.  If you count the CO2 emissions embodied in final consumer demand, the study shows, Kyoto’s ‘developed’ countries are consuming more carbon dioxide now than they did in 1990 — although they report cuts in domestic production.  Even so, 2009 marked the first time that developing countries consumed more carbon dioxide than developed countries.  The crisis may not have fully passed, and it’s too early to tell whether the green stimulus packages introduced in recent years will have a positive impact, the study says.  For the moment it’s sobering to think that the pain caused by the financial crisis made but a small dent in global CO2 emissions.”

Saab Story

Thursday, July 7th, 2011

Venerable Swedish automaker Saab is unable to pay its employees and is likely headed into bankruptcy.  Saab and Zeewolde, Netherlands-based owner Swedish Automobile NV, are in talks to raise cash, the company said.  Options include selling and leasing-back the factory in Trollhaettan, Sweden.  “There can however be no assurance that these discussions will be successful or that the necessary funding will be obtained,” said Swedish Automobile, which was previously known as Spyker Cars NV.

Saab’s chances are “slim,” according to Martin Crum,  an analyst at Amsterdam’s Effectenkantoor BV.  “The company is still not able to produce cars; that’s the main concern.  If you don’t sell cars, you don’t get cash in.”  The pending property sale “can provide some badly needed liquidity for the short term, but for the longer term they of course need more,” Crum said.  Saab came close to being a casualty of GM’s brand shedding after its government-backed bankruptcy, when it stopped the production of Saturn, Hummer, and Pontiac cars.  The Swedish unit was slated to shut down after a group led by Koenigsegg Automotive AB pulled out of talks.  Spyker’s bid came after GM had already begun to shut down Saab, ultimately paying $74 million in cash and $326 million in preferred shares.

A spokeswoman for Saab admitted that approximately 2,200 office workers, designers and engineers might not be paid as Sweden goes into a holiday.  Apologizing for leaving production line staff without paychecks, she said “The last thing we want is to be forced to come with this very sad news the day before a major Swedish holiday.  We would not have done this if we were in a situation where we had an alternative.”  She said Saab was not actively preparing for bankruptcy, but the carmaker is making an eleventh-hour bid for cash by negotiating a sale-and-lease back of its Trollhättan factory with unnamed parties.  “(Bankruptcy) is not the scenario that we are working with.  We are working very intensively on securing short-term financing to improve the situation of the company, of course to pay our employees and to work with suppliers to get production going again.”

Neil King, an analyst at IHS Automotive, said Saab seems to have been left behind by the emerging market boom in nations such as Brazil, China and India.  “They suffered as a result of the financial crisis but unlike their peers, they have not capitalized on booming demand for premium cars in the emerging markets.”  Saab production fell sharply from 123,000 in 2007 to 33,000 in 2010.

Swedes are mourning the waning of the Saab brand,  which was established in 1937 and became one of two internationally known Swedish automakers along with Volvo.  At present, Saab appears to be on its last leg as there has been no recent talk of a government bailout or rescue plan.  Upon hearing the news, one employee said “It is dreadful.  Completely unbelievable.  I get chest pains,” worker Fredrik Almqvist said.  “How on earth are we supposed to pay our bills?”  “I have worked at the factory and know many who worked there.  You should never give up hope, but right now it looks extremely bleak,” Veli-Pekka Saikkala, a representative of IF Metall, said.

Writing on the Automobile website, Donny Nordlicht  says that Saab appears to have had a bit of a reality check, as its latest press statement says ‘There can, however, be no assurance that these discussions will be successful or that the necessary funding will be obtained.’ Saab’s newfound realistic outlook is not assuaging fears, however.  IF Metall is demanding that the automaker pay its members wages, saying it needs to resolve the short-term cash flow issues immediately.  If Saab does not pay up, IF Metall has threatened to enter legal proceedings to procure the wages, something that would most likely end only in bankruptcy for the automaker.”

Where’s Our Recovery? Job Growth and Productivity Falter

Monday, June 13th, 2011

Sluggish job growth in May could be a sign that the economic recovery is losing momentum.According to the ADP May Employment Report, a mere 38,000 jobs were added in the private sector on a seasonally adjusted basis.  That was well below consensus estimates of 170,000 new jobs.  The report also revised downwards the estimated change from March to April from 179,000 to 177,000. “A deceleration in employment, while disappointing, is not entirely surprising,” the report said.  “In the 1st quarter, GDP grew at only a 1.8 percent rate and only about 2¼ percent over the last four quarters.  This is below most economists’ estimate of the economy’s potential growth rate and normally would be associated with very weak growth of employment.”

Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research at J.H. Cohn, said that although some seasonal factors may have been at work in the recent claims data and in the ADP estimates, the report still disappointed.  “We can put away our balloons and party hats today,” he said.  “We expected a pull back in the rate of acceleration, instead we got deceleration.  It appears that the general expansion has lost a bit of momentum and employment numbers, which were already lethargic, are slowing further.”

“This only adds fuel to the argument that the slowdown story is here in the U.S.,” said Tom Porcelli, chief economist at RBC Capital Markets.  “I am fairly confident that people are going to be scaling back their estimates for nonfarm payrolls.  While it is a good thing that small and medium-sized companies are adding payrolls, there is no doubt that the pace has slowed.  This is exactly what we do not want when other significant data shows things are slowing down as well.  Having said that, I still do not believe the Fed will initiate QE3.”

Writing in the National Journal, Jim Tankersley takes a more optimistic viewpoint. According to Tankersley, “Reality is a little more positive and a lot more complicated than that.  Wall Street analysts are fairly united in their view that the recovery has entered a “soft patch,” just like it did last year, and that sooner or later, growth and job-creation are on track to pick up again.  Several analysts and columnists have been reminding Americans that recoveries from financial crises can often feel like stop-and-go traffic on the freeway.  For now, the economic brakes seem to be pumping.  The 2010 slowdown flowed from worries over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.  This one is likely a combination of several factors.  The spike in oil and food prices has spooked confidence — though consumers are still spending apace, dipping into their savings to keep up — and may be driving businesses to scale back hiring.”

On the MarketWatch website, Rex Nutting says that “If you recall that government employment is declining by almost that much every month, the ADP report implies only a very small increase in total employment.  This is no way to get the unemployment rate down from nine percent.  The economy has been buffeted by both natural and man-made forces.  Extremely bad weather earlier in the year depressed activity, as did the surge in commodity prices, especially for energy and food.  Then the Japanese earthquake and tsunami knocked out vital supply chains.  Global economic growth, which had given a big boost to U.S. exporters, is slowing. Europe is dead in the water, so is Japan.  The fast-growing developing nations such as China, India and Brazil are downshifting to avoid overheating.  The strongest sector of the U.S. economy — manufacturing — is still growing, but the momentum is fading.  The Institute for Supply Management’s closely watched diffusion index (Defined by Investopedia as “A measure of the breadth of a move in any of the Conference Boards Business Cycle Indicators (BCI), showing how many of an indicators components are moving together with the overall indicator index) plunged by 6.9 points to 53.5 percent in May, the largest one-month decline since 1984.

Companies may need to start hiring again as a new report from the Department of Labor is showing that the productivity of American workers slowed in the 1st quarter and labor costs rose as companies boosted employment to meet rising demand.  The measure of employee output per hour increased at a 1.8 percent annual rate after a 2.9 percent gain in the prior three months, revised figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington, D.C.  Employee expenses climbed at a 0.7 percent rate after dropping 2.8 percent the prior quarter.

Productivity measures the amount of output per hour of work.  A slowdown in growth is bad for the economy if it persists.  But it can be good in the short term when unemployment is high because it can mean that companies are reaching the limits on how much extra output they can get from their existing work forces.  Output grew 3.9 percent in 2010, the biggest increase since 2002.  But many economists believe it will slow to 50 percent of that rate this year.  The expectation is that companies will hire new workers to further boost output.

Despite Great Recession, the Rich Grew Richer

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

Even with the recession, the world’s millionaires grew to 10 million and their wealth 19 percent to $39 trillion.  It’s ironic that — even in the depths of the Great Recession — the number of millionaires around the world grew by 17 percent to 10 million.  Their collective wealth surged 19 percent to $39 trillion, according to the latest world wealth report from Merrill Lynch-Capgemini.We are already seeing distinct signs of recovery and, in some areas, a complete return to 2007 levels of wealth and growth,” said Bank of America Corporation wealth management chief Sallie Krawcheck.

India, China and Brazil are home to the majority of the world’s newest millionaires, despite the fact that they were some of the hardest hit markets in 2008.  Asia now has three million millionaires – meaning it has caught up with Europe – thanks to a 4.5 percent economic expansion rate.  Their combined wealth soared 31 percent to $9.7 trillion, outstripping Europe’s $9.5 trillion.

North America’s wealth grew by 18 percent, while the number of individuals considered rich climbed 17 percent; their wealth totals $10.7 trillion.  Last year, the United States boasted the most millionaires – 2.87 million.  Japan was next with 1.65 million; Germany had 861,000; and China 477,000.  Switzerland boasts the highest concentration of millionaires, with approximately 35 for every 1,000 adults.

According to Lyle LaMothe, Merrill Lynch’s U.S. wealth management chief, “The wealthy allocated, as opposed to concentrated, their investments.”  In other words, they put their money into fixed-income investments that provided predictable cash flow.  The trick now is to convince the wealthy to return to higher risk investments that have a higher income potential.  “There is still a hesitancy,” LaMothe notes.  “Liquidity is incredibly important and people need cash flow to preserve their lifestyle – but they want to replace that cash flow in a way that does not increase their risk profile.  Investors are open to areas they hadn’t thought about before as they try to preserve their ability to be philanthropic, to preserve their lifestyle.  To me, the report underscored that clients are involved and they’re not inclined to stay in one percent savings accounts.”

Australia Rules In Market Transparency

Tuesday, July 13th, 2010

Australia’s office market is the most transparent, according to report.  Jones Lang LaSalle and LaSalle Investment Management have noted reasonable improvement in global market transparency, according to their recently released 2010 Commercial Real Estate Transparency Index.

According to the Index, Australia ranks as 2010′s most transparent market.  Canada is next in line, and improving markets include China, India, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Greece and Hungary.  Market transparency had fallen in Pakistan, Venezuela, Dubai and Bahrain.

“The 2010 Global Real Estate Transparency Index reveals a notable slowdown in the progress of real estate transparency over the past two years,” said Jacques Gordon, LaSalle Investment Management’s global head of strategy.  “It suggests that the recent turmoil in global financial, economic and real estate markets has impacted on market behavior, with real estate players focusing on survival rather than market advancement.”

Where Do You Look for Innovation? Not the U.S. Anymore

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Where do you find innovation?  Try the developing world.  Breakthrough ideas that change industries are increasingly coming from the developing world rather than the United States or Western Europe.  Part of this is due to the fact that the West is outsourcing more research and development to emerging markets.  Currently, Fortune 500 firms have 98 research-and-development facilities in China and an additional 63 in India.  IBM’s staff in emerging nations is larger than its U.S.-based workforce.

According to The Economist, “But it is also because emerging-market firms and consumers are both moving upmarket.  Huawei, a Chinese telecoms giant, applied for more international patents than any other firm did in 2008.  Chinese 20-somethings spend even more time on the internet than do their American peers.  Even more striking is the emerging world’s growing ability to make established products for dramatically lower costs:  no-frills $3,000 cars and $300 laptops may not seem as exciting as a new iPad but they promise to change far more people’s lives.”

Dubbed “frugal innovation”, this trend redesigns products and processes to eliminate unnecessary costs.  For example, Indian telecom provider Bharti Airtel has dramatically cut the cost of providing mobile phone services by creating unique partnerships with its competitors and suppliers.  The firm shares radio towers with competing firms and outsources network construction, operations and support to companies such as Ericsson and IBM.

2010 to be Marked by M&A in Outsourcing

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010

India's economy is expected to grow at an eye-popping 7.5 percent this year.India is expected to grow at 7.5 percent this year, up from 6 percent in 2008 — a rate that is the envy of most of the world.  To buoy its economic prospects, the Indian Government has raised more than $100 billion over the last four quarters to finance a stimulus package, pushing the country’s debt to 50 percent of the total GDP.  One place that’s feeling the optimism is India’s IT industry.  As 2010 gets underway, recruiting will reach a peak with spikes in salary hitting pre-recession levels, according to advisory firm Gartner’s India regional VP, Partha Iyengar.

In terms of outsourcing, this year is likely to be characterized by an inflow of low-end projects off-shored to Indian vendors to achieve cost savings.  Speaking in an interview with Financial Express, Iyengar said that 2010 will also reveal consolidation in the software sector along with spiked IT spending by Indian firms.

Off-shoring is likely to witness what Iyengar calls a “back to the future syndrome”.  The next year will see industry growth pushed forward by cost savings, which is how the outsourcing sector initially began.  Most outsourcing projects are expected to be related to maintenance support and application development.

For global firms, outsourcing often provides 80 percent of a company’s cost savings.  Consequently, more low-end work will come in to India.  More complex projects are likely to follow in 2011.

Additionally, 2010 is likely to be marked by mergers and acquisitions.  Giants in the Indian outsourcing business like Infosys, TCS, and Wipro will make more acquisitions in Europe in order to acquire onsite capacity.  They will also expand to near-shore destinations to tap markets in Latin America, Eastern Europe and elsewhere.  Meanwhile, global firms, particularly Tier II firms that have not developed off-shore capacities, will make acquisitions in India and other top outsourcing countries.

Jacob Cherian is the India correspondent for AlterNow.  His work is featured on SourcingLine, a leading source of data and news about offshoring.

A Rebound in Offshore Activity Signals India’s Recovery

Monday, November 16th, 2009

call-centers-india_26A report by India’s Economic Times indicates that up to 11 multinational firms including Wells Fargo, Standard Chartered and Ingersoll Rand set up back office facilities in India during the 3rd quarter of 2009.

A research firm, Everest Group, says this bodes well for the overall business momentum in India picking up in 2010.  Two of the reasons cited for India’s resurgence are the depreciation of the Indian currency and the reduction in operating costs which have enticed outsourcing operations back.

Although there was movement of outsourcing projects to facilities in Latin America and Southeast Asia, India continues to dominate the scene in the third quarter.

The new numbers signal a shift away from the doldrums of the first part of 2009.  Many U.S. firms like GE and CitiGroup put expansion plans and capital projects on hold due to the deteriorating financial ratios.

Jacob Cherian is AlterNow’s India Contributor. He is a business writer for Offshore Advisor.

Downturn in Economy Triggers Outsourcing and Contract Work in India

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

genpact22With U.S. unemployment figures approaching 10 percent, it has affected parts of the tech industry with the chip and system design areas among the most affected (unemployment is 8.6 percent among American software engineers although the overall tech sector is faring better with an unemployment rate under five percent).  In response, it has led seasoned talent to eschew searching for a new job in favor of offering their services to the highest bidder, according to a new online report.

It’s also been a boon for countries overseas.  American companies now have access to highly skilled contract talent across the globe who can collaborate virtually.  India, especially, is reaping the benefits since approximately 64 percent of all outsourced computer-design projects went to Indian companies this year, up from 51 percent the previous year.  Trailing close behind was China, which raked in 33 percent.

Jacob Cherian is AlterNow’s India Contributor. He is a freelance business writer based in Kerala, India.  He has written about business outsourcing for Offshore Advisor.

India Still Lags in Innovation

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

Much has been made in the world’s press about India’s economy buoyed by its IT sector. And a lot of it is justified.  The nation’s IT sector managed to grow some 20 percent in 2008, according to India’s National Association of Software and Services Companies, and IT firms have already extended 100,000 job offers for 2009.

india-outsourceBut all is not rosy for India.  While the country has surged in the basic and mid-level areas of coding and development, it has struggled in the area of R&D and top-end innovation.  India produces about 300,000 computer science graduates a year.  Yet it produces only about 100 computer science PhDs, a small fraction of the 1,500 – 2,000 that get awarded in the United States or China every year according to a recent article from Reuters.

“Students here are not exposed to research from an early age, faculties are not exposed to research and there’s no career path for innovation because there’s a lot of pressure to get a ‘real’ job,” said Vidya Natampally, head of strategy at the Microsoft India Research Centre.  Rival China has already pulled ahead with more than 1,100 R&D centers compared to less than 800 in India, despite lingering concerns about rule of law and intellectual property rights (IPR).  India is also losing out in the patent stakes. In 2006 – 2007, just 7,000 patents were granted in this country of 1.1 billion people, compared to nearly 160,000 in the United States.

India is cheaper than China for R&D.  But salaries in India have been rising by about 15 percent every year and may soon reach parity with China. R&D centre costs in Shanghai are currently just 10-15 percent higher than in India.

But this could be changing:  Microsoft, for example, has just opened a new facility in Bangalore staffed with about 60 full-time researchers, many of them Indians with PhDs from top universities in the United States.  The center “is at the cutting edge of Microsoft’s R&D, covering seven areas of research including mobility and cryptography.  Cisco, IBM, Intel, Nokia are among the other companies going beyond low-end coding to bring R&D to India.

Jacob Cherian is AlterNow’s India Contributor. He is a freelance business writer based in Kerala, India.  He has written about business outsourcing for Offshore Advisor.