Posts Tagged ‘London’

Investors Are Choosing London

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

London beats Washington, D.C., as preferred destination for commercial real estate investment.London has overtaken Washington, D.C., as the preferred city for commercial real estate investment,  primarily because investors believe that prices have bottomed out and the time to get into that market is now. The British capital has overtaken the previous favorites of Washington, D.C., and New York, according to a survey conducted by the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE).

“London currently offers investors the advantage of a ‘re-priced’ market,” says James Fetgatter, AFIRE’s CEO.  “The re-pricing began sooner than it did in other cities.”  London’s score is 31 points higher than the perennial favorite Washington, D.C., and 40 points ahead of New York City.  A year ago, London occupied second place, ranking four points behind Washington.  The survey of the association’s approximately 200 members was taken in the fourth quarter of 2009 and represents ownership of more than $842 billion of commercial real estate.  Of that, $304 billion is invested in the United States.

London, along with the rest of the United Kingdom, has rebounded with investment rising 56 percent from the first to the second half of 2009.  Property values rose 2.4 percent in November, the largest monthly increase in 15 years.  Savills, the real estate advisory firm, is predicting London will eclipse New York as the fastest growing global financial center.

Despite London’s success, the United States is still preferred as the “most stable and secure real estate investment environment,” according to 44 percent of survey respondents.  This is the first time the United States ranked below 50 percent in the survey.  It ranked 53 percent in 2008 and 57 percent in 2007.  Germany occupies second place with 21 percent.  In terms of price appreciation, the United States ranks first, followed by the United Kingdom and China.

The preferred property for investment is multifamily residential, followed by office, industrial, retail and hotel.

Bad Debt? Sell It on the Stock Market

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

To purge their balance sheets of debt and avoid future writedowns, more and more U.K. banks are considering plans to transfer commercial property loans into REITs. Such strategies entail using REITs as publicly traded “exit vehicles” to limit the losses they and their borrowers face.

uk-stock-market The British Property Federation is currently pushing the idea to the government as a solution for state-owned banks saddled with real estate loans.  Ian Marcus, head of real estate at Credit Suisse Group AG, remarks, “It’s obviously being considered by all relevant parties because the sector needs to recapitalize and that is one methodology of doing so.”

U.K. banks are currently weighed down with 227 billion pounds (US$371 billion) of loans against retail properties, office buildings and warehouses after funding the real estate boom that ended in 2007, reports a De Montfort University study.  According to BNP Paribas, approximately 100 billion pounds of the loans are due to mature in the next three years.

The values of the commercial properties they are secured against have declined by an average 44 percent from their peak two years ago, calculates London-based Investment Property Databank, Ltd.  Peter Cosmetatos, the British Property Federation’s finance director, concludes, “Allowing mortgage REITs would seem a natural and sensible way for REITs to help banks reduce their exposure to real estate and recapitalize the sector.”

It’s an interesting proposition and creates a new play - allowing opportunity players to get undervalued, under-performing loans at the share level.

UK Debt Repayment Dates

UK Debt Repayment Dates

Fed Chairman Bernanke Takes Steps to Restart the Economy

Friday, November 7th, 2008

Ben Bernanke has spoken.  The Fed chairman and the Federal Reserve moved recently to stimulate the economy when the policy-making committee cut the federal funds rate - the rate at which banks lend to each other - to just one percent.  This represents a half percentage point cut from the previous 1.5 percent rate.  By contrast, during the summer of 2007, this rate was 5.25 percent.

There is more good news.  Treasury rates have stabilized.  The value of the dollar and the yen are soaring.  The price of oil has fallen to less than $70 a barrel.  The New York Stock Exchange rose nearly 900 points in a single day, following the lead of markets ranging from Tokyo to Hong Kong to London.  The inflation rate is just 4.9 percent.  Unemployment is 5.7 percent - a lower proportion than was seen during previous recessions of recent decades.

And, according to NAI Global’s recent Capital Markets Update, the doomsayers who describe the current situation as “the worst economic situation ever” either are very young or have short memories.  The seemingly endless stagflation of 1973 - 1981 was far worse; so was the collapse of the savings-and-loan industry from 1989 - 1993.  The dot.com failure and September 11 wiped out more wealth when compared with the GDP.

Commercial real estate is in far better shape than the early 1990s, thanks to lower vacancy rates, higher rents and shorter construction pipelines.  Delinquency rates are virtually non-existent, though that situation could easily change.  Published in September of 2008, NAI Global’s report projects that recovery will occur within nine to 15 months.

Foreign Investors Like Luxury

Thursday, May 1st, 2008

You know what they say about polls.  Still, a recent one is an interesting temperature reading for the new economy.   Overseas investors in United States real estate prefer retail versus office or industrial space right now, according to a recent issue of Commercial Property News. This is just one conclusion in a survey that examined the influence of the current housing slump on the economy and consumer spending.  Nearly 200 members of the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE) revised their favored property rankings from the previous year.  Retail soared to first from fifth place, while hotels fell from second to fourth place  Office space plunged from first place to last. “While foreign investors are aware of the high occupancy and rental-rate increases in the office market, they fear that the credit crunch will cause tenants to lay people off and contract their space needs,” reported Karin Shewer, a principal for New York City-based Real Estate Capital Partners, which advises European investors about American real estate markets.  Shewer says multifamily’s lack of popularity is the result of a growing uneasiness with the United States condominium market.“Another issue with multifamily is that cap rates are very low right now and returns are limited,” Shewer said.  The strong preference for hotels relates to aging baby boomers.  According to Shewer, “A lot of baby boomers will inherit from parents who were conservative savers, and as they move toward retirement, they will have more time to travel, and they will occupy hotels.”  So why retail at the top?  Dan Fasulo, managing director for Real Capital Analytics, Inc., notes that “Retail is a diverse property type with many sub-niches.  What these investors might be referencing is high-end urban luxury retail.  We have seen a boom like never before in high-fashion apparel, jewelry and other upscale specialty stores that have been expanding globally as the worldwide economic expansion has driven up disposable incomes of affluent people around the world.”  The AFIRE survey also found that foreign investors still prefer American real estate to that in other countries.  To illustrate, AFIRE’s members collectively own $700 billion worth of real estate worldwide; $230 billion of that is invested in the United States.Lastly, AFIRE members were asked to rank their favorite cities for investment.  New York City and Washington, D.C., took first and second place.  London, Paris and Shanghai completed the list.