Posts Tagged ‘property values’

August Foreclosures Rise 33 Percent Over July

Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

Default notices sent to delinquent U.S. homeowners soared 33 percent in August when compared with July, evidence that lenders are accelerating the foreclosure process after almost one year of delays, according to RealtyTrac, Inc.  First-time default notices were filed on 78,880 homes, the highest number in nine months.  Total foreclosure filings, which also include auction and home-seizure notices, rose seven percent from a four-year low in July to 228,098.  One in 570 homes received a notice during August.  “The industry appears to be hitting the reset button and the logjam may finally be breaking up,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac senior vice president, said.  Foreclosure filings in 2011 have been “artificially low.”

“This is really the first time we’ve seen a significant increase in the number of new foreclosure actions,” Sharga said. “It’s still possible this is a blip, but I think it’s much more likely we’re seeing the beginning of a trend here.”  Foreclosure activity started declining last year after problems surfaced with the way many lenders were handling foreclosure paperwork, such as shoddy mortgage paperwork comprising several shortcuts known as robo-signing.

Additional factors have also stalled the pace of new foreclosures.  In some cases, the process has been held delayed by courts in states where judges are involved in the foreclosure process, a possible settlement of government investigations into mortgage-lending practices, and lenders’ reluctance to take back properties because of slowing home sales.  A rise in foreclosures also means a potentially faster turnaround for the U.S. housing market.  Experts say that revival won’t occur as long as the glut of potential foreclosures remains on the market. 

Foreclosures depress home values and create uncertainty among potential homebuyers who worry that prices may further decline as more foreclosures hit the market.  There are approximately 3.7 million more homes in some phase of foreclosure at present than there would be in a normal housing market, according to Citi analyst Josh Levin.  “This bloated foreclosure pipeline now presents the greatest obstacle to a housing market recovery,” he said.

Although negotiations between some banks and state attorneys general regarding foreclosure practices are still unresolved, several restarted foreclosure actions after an April settlement with federal regulators.  JPMorgan Chase & Co., as of the end of June, had resumed foreclosure actions in nearly all of the 43 states where it had suspended its efforts.  So-called “shadow inventory,” or the looming foreclosures that are still expected to hit the market, is a major threat for a housing sector that already has a glut of unsold homes.  In spite of everything, default notices had fallen 18 percent when compared with August of 2010 and down 44 percent from the peak reached in April 2009 during the tail end of the recession.

Writing for The Consumerist website, Chris Morran says that “Last year, several of the country’s largest mortgage servicers — Bank of America, GMAC/Ally, JPMorgan Chase, among others — were forced to hit the pause button on foreclosure procedures after it was revealed that many foreclosure documents were being rubber stamped by untrained, ill-informed ‘robo-signers.’  This delay caused a bottleneck of foreclosure-worthy properties waiting to be reviewed.  But now it looks like those homes are starting to trickle out into what could be a flood in early 2012.  According to Bank of America, “We are on an ongoing path to return foreclosures to normal levels. Strong gains like that from July to August demonstrate our progress – primarily in judicial states — clearing more volume to advance to foreclosure once we pass the numerous quality controls we have in place and exhaust all options with homeowners.  Our progress each month builds upon foreclosure levels lower than the market realities would dictate.”

A more optimistic view of the dismal report was offered by Gregory Tsujimoto, who performs market research for John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, CA, and views the data as reflecting more of a stall in an improving market than a new downtrend.  Despite the sharp increase in monthly figures, Tsujimoto attaches more weight to an 18 percent decline in default notices on a yearly basis.  Tsujimoto believes that the uptick in default notices is “a leading indicator for future foreclosures, which is not coming at a great time when measures of consumer confidence have declined.”  But, he says that we must address the backlog of distressed inventory and “vacant homes in the marketplace before we get true improvement.”  The other key, he says, is “creating jobs to spur demand.”

Among the states with the highest foreclosure rates, California led in new foreclosures with an increase of 55 percent over July, according to RealtyTrac.  Cities in inland California posted big jumps, with Riverside and San Bernardino counties soaring 68 percent, Bakersfield 44 percent and Modesto 57 percent.  “Scratch beneath the surface and there’s not a lot to cheer about this month.  Home sales were up from a year earlier but remained far below average,” DataQuick President John Walsh said.  “Many would-be buyers can’t find financing, and others who want to make a move now are stuck because they owe more than their homes are worth.”

The decision to move ahead is an important one since RealtyTrac has long maintained that property values won’t rise until a large number of distressed properties are purchased.  “We don’t know yet if this is a beginning of a trend, but there is a good chance we might see a return to more realistic foreclosure numbers,” Sharga concluded.

Accounting Standards Designed to Increase Transparency

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

is_accountingprinciples_440x248New accounting standards calling for property to be marked to market,  and changes in lease accounting rules will strongly impact balance sheets, income statements and the general financial outlook of American companies. Unfortunately, many corporations are not ready to deal with the changes, according to a new report from CB Richard Ellis.  The mark-to-market requirement – known as FAS 157 – became effective for financial assets November 15, 2007, and for non-financial assets such as real estate on November 15, 2008.

CBRE’s white paper – entitled “FAS Talking – Unpacking Real Estate’s Impact on Financial Statements” – notes that the estimated balance sheet impact of the lease accounting revisions will be in excess of $1 trillion.  According to the report, the combined consequences of mark-to-market and lease accounting changes might negatively impact earnings, capital requirements, debt covenant ratios, credit ratings and other yardsticks of financial health.

Todd P. Anderson, CBRE senior managing director of global corporate services, who wrote the report with Michael M. Omiya, CFO of Boeing Realty Corporation, says that the changes are “a continuation of the effort to have greater financial transparency, in particular in the financial statements of publicly traded corporations.”  According to Anderson, “In the absence of comparable sales, you have to figure out how to establish a value for your property.”  Corporations should accomplish that before the end of the year when they are on deadline to complete tax and accounting responsibilities.  “The corporate real estate department, if it understands what’s going on in the mark-to-market arena, can come in early and start to take a look at its properties and basically create an argument for why it is valuing properties the way it is,” Anderson concludes.

Downtown Chicago Rental Apartments Thriving

Monday, August 31st, 2009

Downtown Chicago apartment buildings – especially Class A properties – are seeing a resurgence in occupancy and rental rates as residents apprehensive about the condominium market choose to rent rather than buy.  The average effective rent of downtown apartment buildings climbed to $2.17 PSF in the second quarter, a 2.4 percent increase over the first quarter, according to a report by Appraisal Research Counselors, a real estate consulting firm.  During the same time frame, average Class A occupancy rose to 93.4 percent, as compared with 90.9 percent in the first quarter and 91.6 percent a year ago.chicagoskyline1

The statistics would be even better if there weren’t so many new downtown apartment buildings.  More than 2,098 new units have been built downtown since 2008.  Add to that the shadow rental market – condominium owners who rent their units when they cannot sell.  Many potential buyers are renting for the time being because they are concerned about falling property values and the possibility that they will be unable to obtain a mortgage in a tight credit market.

These numbers show the inherent strength of Chicago’s CBD rental apartment market — proof that downtowns continue to thrive because of the number of highly educated knowledge workers who want to live in the city.  As a result, places like River North and the Loop remain highly sought after locations for businesses looking to recruit talent.

CMBS Maturities Face Eventual Day of Reckoning

Monday, June 29th, 2009

Moody’s reiterated its February analysis of CMBS loans,  noting that the majority of 2006 – 2008 ratings of conduit/fusion and large-loan deals are still stable.  The ratings agency warns that the assumptions hold up “as long as conditions in the commercial real estate market and the general economy do not weaken.”

large_foreclosed-propertySince February, “property prices have continued their march downward,” the Moody’s report notes.  Moody’s envisages a peak-to-trough price slide of more than 30 percent, with cap rates trending higher over the next several quarters.

“Despite the grim prognosis for property values, it is important to repeat the point made in the February report announcing our ratings sweep:  that property value is primarily a concern at loan maturity.”  Because most CMBS loan maturities will occur five to six years from now, “the maturity profile of the universe of CMBS loans is relatively benign.”

If the markets remain as weak in 2016 or 2017 as they are now, obviously there would be negative rating implications for CMBS.