Posts Tagged ‘Triple A ratings’

Covered Bonds Could Be a Viable Alternative to CMBS

Monday, November 15th, 2010

A financing vehicle invested in Prussia in 1769 could be the solution to failed #CMBS.A financing vehicle that has been used in Europe since it was invented in Prussia in 1769 is finding its way to American shores as a replacement for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).  The vehicle is known as covered bonds, which is a securitized debt instrument backed by a pool of top-quality assets, primarily mortgages. What is different about covered bonds is that the assets – known as a cover pool – are maintained on the issuer’s balance sheet.  This acts as a safety measure because the issuer is less likely to underwrite loans that carry significant risk.

Currently, the United States has no established market for covered bonds, although they are a $3 trillion business in Europe.  In July, the House Financial Services Committee approved a bill that would establish a regulatory framework for covered bonds.  Although the bill just missed being included in the Dodd-Frank financial reform overhaul, the consensus is that the legislation could win House and Senate approval in 2011.

“We have seen the difficulties wrought by the complexity of securitizations,” said Bert Ely, a financial and monetary policy consultant.  “Covered bonds, on the other hand, are a very clean and simple tool.  A bank makes a loan, keeps the loan on its books, and issues a covered bond.  There is no sale and resale of mortgages.”  With a covered bond, several elements protect the bondholder.  All assets in the covered pool are subject to monthly monitoring by an independent third party.  If one of the loans becomes non-performing, the issuer must remove it and replace it with a loan that is performing.  Thanks to the safety features, the majority of covered bonds enjoy a triple-A rating.

Despite the fact that many in the investment community support covered bonds, the Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) has some concerns about them.  Primary is the fact that the pools are over-collateralized – sometimes by as much as three times the bonds’ face value.  The FDIC wants access to these assets when a bankruptcy occurs.  The FDIC argues that if the cover pools protect the bulk of the banks’ assets from being claimed, the depositors are being asked to take on too much risk.  “We support covered bond legislation, but not at the expense of our obligation to protect the deposit insurance fund,” said the FDIC’s Michael H. Krimminger.

Sovereign Debt Could Be 2010′s Subprime

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

 Potential sovereign debt defaults could destabilize global economy in 2010.Greece, Spain, Ukraine, Austria, Latvia and Mexico are among the nations in danger of sovereign debt default, putting the global economic recovery from the recession at risk.  Sovereign debt is the debt of nations.  For example, U.S. Treasuries are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the government; similarly, other countries sell bonds to raise money to pay for programs such as armies and public healthcare.  When a nation defaults on its sovereign debt, it means they are unable to pay their creditors.  Dubai escaped default when its oil-rich neighbor, Abu Dhabi, bailed out the emirate to the tune of $10 billion.  Also in trouble – though to lesser degrees — are Ecuador, Argentina, Grenada, Lebanon, Pakistan and Bolivia.

A default on sovereign debt is potentially even more disastrous than last year’s subprime meltdown because it has the potential to lead to geopolitical volatility, social unrest and even war.  Investors who have purchased sovereign debt – which typically is perceived as safer than corporate debt because countries can raise taxes and increase tariffs to raise cash to pay their debts – could see some extremely poor returns.

In a book entitled This Time Is Different:  Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, authors and economists Ken Rogoff of Harvard and Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland state that “Since 1970, nearly half of sovereign defaults have occurred in nations with debt-to-GNP ratios of 60 percent or more.  This makes sense:  As a country’s debt starts to approach the size of its total economy (or GNP), it gets harder to make their payments, just like an individual whose debts start to eat up all (or most) of their salary.”