Posts Tagged ‘unemployment’

« Older Entries

Is Hard-Hit Ireland Resolving It’s Economic Crisis?

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

Ireland was one of the nations that was hardest hit by the Eurozone crisis, but now it’s being seen as leading stricken nations in their efforts to turn their economies around.  International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Union (EU) officials are impressed by its austerity measures, imposed after the massive 2010 bailout.  For the average Irish person, however, the gain is hard to see.  Public services have been slashed, and housing prices have declined 60 percent.  Approximately 1,000 young Irish people emigrate every week, and there’s extensive cynicism whether economic medicine being taken by the once-mighty Celtic Tiger actually works.

Ireland’s unemployment is currently upwards of 14 percent.  At the start of Ireland’s second year of austerity, there have been tax rises, wage freezes, layoffs and more.  This is being supervised by the so-called Troika, the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF.  These entities bailed out Ireland after the property bubble burst and its banks collapsed.

Larry Elliott, economics editor of The Guardian, describes Ireland as “the Icarus economy.  It was the low-tax, Celtic tiger model that became the European home for US multinationals in the hi-tech sectors of pharma and IT.  Ireland was open, export-driven and growing fast, but flew too close to the sun and crashed back to earth.  The final humiliation came when it had to seek a bailout a year ago.  In a colossal property bubble, debt as a share of household income doubled, the balance of payments sank deeper and deeper into the red, the government finances become over-reliant on stamp duty from the sale of houses and the banks leveraged up to the eyeballs.

During the time running up to the bubble bursting, Elliott says that “A series of emergency packages and austerity budgets followed as the government sought to balance the books during a recession in which national output sank by 20 percent.  In November 2010, the Irish government asked for external support from the EU and the IMF.  Again, it had little choice in the matter.  The terms of the bailout were tough and there has been no let-up in the austerity.  The finance minister, Michael Noonan, plans to put up the top rate of VAT by two points to 23 percent.  At least 100,000 homeowners are in negative equity, and welfare payments (with the exception of pensions) have been slashed.  In recent quarters there have been signs of life in the Irish economy, but the boost has come entirely from the export sector, which has benefited from the increased competitiveness prompted by cost-cutting.  The best that can be said for its domestic economy is that the decline appears to have bottomed out.  At least for now.

“Around a third of Ireland’s exports go to Britain, which is heading for stagnation, a third go to the eurozone, which is almost certainly heading for recession, and a third go to the United States, which will suffer contamination effects from the crisis in Europe.  That’s the bad news.  The good news is that the supply side of the Irish economy is sound.  Much attention is paid to Ireland’s low level of corporation tax, which has certainly acted as a magnet for inward investment, but that is not the only reason the big multinationals have arrived.  There is a young, skilled workforce and Dublin does not have London’s hang-up about using industrial policy to invest capital in growth sectors.  Ireland had a dysfunctional banking system, but most of the multinationals — which account for 80 percent of the country’s exports — don’t rely on domestic banks for their funding.  The problem is that you can’t run a successful economy on exports alone, no matter how competitive they might be.”

In fact, Ireland’s prime minister, Enda Kenny, recently called for even deeper budget cuts.  Kenny outlined savings of up to €3.8 billion needed to slash its national debt under the terms of 2010’s EU/International Monetary Fund bailout.  Kenny appealed for understanding from the Irish people and stressed that the nation may have to endure a further two or three harsh budgets to put the country’s finances in order. He said on Saturday that the Republic “was in the region of €18 billion out of line”.

“It is the same old story with Ireland in our view – doing good work and will continue to do so,” Brian Devine, economist at NCB Stockbrokers in Dublin said.  “But the country is still extremely vulnerable given the level of the deficit.”  The anticipated adjustments total approximately eight percent of Ireland’s economy, and follow spending cuts and tax rises of more than €20 billion since the economy began to decline in 2008.

And how are the Irish people dealing with austerity? “We’re squeezed to the pips,” said Tommy Larkin, a 35-year-old mechanic changing tires and oil on the double in northside Dublin.  “I never had to watch my money in the good times, but that’s all I do with my money now.”

Wages for middle-class families have been cut around 15 percent, while the nearly 15 percent unemployed have seen welfare and other aid payments cut.  The government recently imposed a new household tax, and is planning new water charges next.  Driving a car can mean an annual fee of anything from $205 to $3,045, while recent fuel-tax increase haves taken gas upwards of $7.25 per gallon.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, Financing, General | No Comments »

A Tale of Two Countries: Germany and Spain

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Germany’s unemployment declined more than predicted in December as car and machinery exports boomed and one of the mildest winters on record helped construction jobs. The number of jobless people declined a seasonally adjusted 22,000 to 2.89 million, according to the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency.  Economists had forecast a decline of 10,000.  The adjusted jobless rate fell to just 6.8 percent.  German firms are working virtually nonstop to fulfill orders for exports and investment goods.  As a result, the nation has defied a debt crisis that the European Commission fears will unleash a recession throughout the Eurozone.  The Munich-based IFO Institute’s measure of business confidence also rose unexpectedly in December.  Polls show that the majority of Germans see their jobs as secure even as Europe’s biggest economy slows.  Forward-looking indicators including IFO’s underscore that the German jobs motor is fundamentally intact, said Johannes Mayr, a senior economist at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich.

Except for an unexpected 6,000 increase in October, German unemployment has declined in every month since June 2009. The average jobless total in unadjusted terms for 2011 was well below the three million mark, Labor Agency head Frank-Juergen Weise said.  “German unemployment mastered the dual impact of the debt crisis and weakening economic growth in 2011 but these risks remain, accompanying us as we enter the new year, Weise said.

Both the jobless total and the jobless rate were at their lowest level since unification in 1991, noted German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler. “2011 can be described as the most successful since German unification for working people,” Roesler said.  “Demand for labor remains very high, despite the current economic risks.  Overall, the upturn in employment should continue, albeit at a slower rate.  The labor market remains one of the main pillars of our economy,” the minister said.

The national statistics office Destatis reported that the number of employed people in Germany hit a new record of 41.04 million in 2011, with more than 500,000 jobs created.  It was the first time the number of people working in Germany has risen above 41 million, Destatis said.  The nation’s population is approximately 82 million.

“Overall, labor market conditions will remain markedly healthier in Germany than in most other countries in Europe in the months ahead,” said IHS Global Insight’s Timo Klein. At present, Germany is confronting a shortage of skilled labor.  Leading economists anticipate that Germany’s economic growth will slow in 2012, in line with other major Eurozone economies, which may put a squeeze on wages and jobs.  But, unemployment at a record low for the last 20 years, is a position that most countries envy and a sign of the way Germany has rebuilt itself since the Wall was torn down.

“Germany’s manufacturing and export-driven economy finished the year strongly — piling on another 22,000 jobs in December,” said Anthony Cheung of market analysts RANsquawk.  “Behind the strong performance lie some adept moves by Germany’s exporters.  As their Eurozone markets weakened, they have been very good at moving their focus elsewhere.  German carmakers have more than compensated by dramatically growing sales to developing markets.”

This is one reason why companies are not shedding significant staff, even if the economy hits a downturn, said Berenberg Bank’s Holger Schmieding.

Germany’s labor market strength means that domestic demand will “remain a pillar of support” to the eurozone “under very challenging circumstances otherwise,” Schmieding said.  The Eurozone badly needs this help.  For example, Spain again published dire labor market data with the jobless rate rising by nearly 2,000 in December when compared with November.  Eurostat’s most recent data showed October unemployment in Spain at 22.8 percent, by far the Eurozone’s highest.

Spain represents an entirely different scenario.  During 2011, unemployment in Spain soared 7.9 percent, totaling an astonishing 322,286 individuals.  Nearly one-third of all the Eurozone’s unemployed are Spanish; approximately 50 percent of young Spaniards are out of work.  The tough austerity measures outlined by the new prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, are likely to push Spain’s jobless rate even higher.  These include €8.9 billion in spending cuts and tax increases to cut Spain’s borrowing which should total €16.5 billion in 2012.  Spain closed out 2011 with a deficit of 8 percent of its GDP, significantly higher than the six percent reported at the end of 2010.  “This is the beginning of the beginning,” said Deputy Prime Minister Saenz de Santamaria, noting that Spain is facing “an extraordinary, unexpected situation, which will force us to take extraordinary and unexpected measures.”  She stressed that the wealthiest will be increasingly taxed for at least two years, resulting in expected budgetary gains of €6 billion.

These numbers represent a new 15-year high in Spain’s unemployment rate “The figures for the number of registered unemployed for the month of December confirm the deterioration of the economic situation during the second half of the year,” according to Spain’s labor ministry.  Once the Eurozone’s job creation engine, Spain has struggled to find jobs for the millions thrown out of work since the 2008 property bubble collapse.

The bad news fueled fears that Spain, the Eurozone’s fourth-largest economy, was slipping back into recession after the economy posted zero growth in the 3rd quarter of 2011.  Prime Minister Rajoy’s new government has promised to fight unemployment and fix the country’s finances as its top priorities.  Rajoy plans to present a major labor market reform which will alter hiring laws and Spain’s collective bargaining system to encourage companies to hire workers.

Spain’s secretary of state for employment, Engracia Hidalgo, said the successive labor reforms carried out by the previous government “never made the labor market more dynamic and flexible.”  Spain  lets the jobless receive unemployment benefits for a maximum of two years.  Prime Minister Rajoy’s government extended a monthly payment of 400 euros ($520) for people whose benefits have run out.  Otherwise, the payments would have expired in February.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, General | No Comments »

Santa Brings More Than 200,000 New Jobs in December

Monday, January 16th, 2012

The United States added more than 200,000 jobs in December of 2011, building on a strengthening employment market that dominated the second half of the year.  This brought the unemployment rate down to 8.5 percent from the revised 8.7 percent, which had been predicted in November.  The primary growth was in transportation — primarily courier services that hired for the holidays — healthcare and manufacturing, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“It would have been even better without the drag from Europe,” said John Canally, economic strategist at LPL Financial, a stock brokerage firm. “The Europe situation created uncertainty, and uncertainty was used as a reason not to hire until now.”  The year ended even more strongly than economists had predicted.  They had forecast that employers would add a net 150,000 jobs in December, according to a survey by Factset. They also had predicted that the unemployment rate would tick up to 8.7 percent from November’s 8.6 percent; this is the lowest rate since March 2009.

In the end, November’s unemployment rate was revised up in this report, to 8.7 percent.  The better-than-expected monthly gain of 219,000 private-sector jobs means American businesses have replaced more than three million of the 4.2 million private-sector jobs that were lost the past 13 months. The private-sector jobs gained since employment bottomed in February of 2010 marks the strongest recovery since the 1990-1992 recession, when U.S. businesses added 4.2 million jobs in the same amount of time.

The new job numbers highlight the fact that the U.S. economy is on its way to recovery even as strains in Europe persist,” said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital in Toronto. The fact that the labor market is gaining traction should be good news to the Obama administration, whose economic policies are relentlessly attacked by the political opposition.

This string of better-than-anticipated economic indicators has highlighted the stark contrast between the recovery in the world’s biggest economy and Europe, which faces bad times for months or even years.  Even with the good news, the American economy needs an even faster pace of job growth over a sustained period to make a noticeable dent in the pool of the 23.7 million people who remain out of work or underemployed in the wake of the 2007-09 recession.

December marked the 15th consecutive month that employment numbers have risen. Marcus Bullus, trading director at MB Capital, said: “That’s one hell of a number. Such an impressive fall in both the number of jobless Americans and the unemployment rate will cheer everyone bar Republican spin doctors.  The Obama administration could be forgiven for showboating over this convincing evidence that America’s economy is pulling away from Europe’s.  From a market perspective, strong US data like this will add to optimism, but nobody doubts the considerable downward pressure the Eurozone will continue to place on the global marketplace during 2012.”

Automatic Data Processing’s (ADP) numbers for December are even more impressive, saying the government added 325,000 jobs in December.  ADP’s figures do not always match the government’s, and economists warned that seasonal factors could have boosted the figures. Even so, all the major measures of the job market appear to be on the upswing.

Lasting payroll gains are needed to chip away at joblessness and support household spending, which accounts for approximately 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. The labor market figures come on the heels of recent data showing increased manufacturing and a rebound in consumer sentiment that show the U.S. is barely impacted by Europe’s debt crisis.  “You got the trifecta — more people working, wages up and the average work week up,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc., who accurately forecast the December payroll gains.  “You can’t really argue that that isn’t a sign of significant improvement in the job market.”

Yearly benchmark revisions showed the unemployment rate averaged 8.9 percent in 2011, down from 9.6 percent and 9.3 percent in the previous two years. It still ranks as the worst three-year period since 1939 to 1941.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Phil Izzo says the increase is “for real.” According to Izzo, “While the unemployment rate has been falling in part due to people leaving the labor force, a large portion of this month’s number appears to come from people finding jobs.

“The unemployment rate is calculated based on people who are without jobs, who are available to work and who have actively sought work in the prior four weeks. The actively looking for work’ definition is fairly broad, including people who contacted an employer, employment agency, job center or friends; sent out resumes or filled out applications; or answered or placed ads, among other things. The rate is calculated by dividing that number by the total number of people in the labor force.

“The key to the drop in the broader unemployment rate was due to a 371,000 drop in the number of people employed part time but who would prefer full-time work, that comes on top of big drops in that category over the past two months. That number could reflect people having their hours increased or part-time workers moving on to full time work,” Izzo concluded.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, General | No Comments »

Job Creation Strengthens, But Unemployment Increases?

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

American companies added 244,000 jobs to the economy in April, the fastest pace in five years.  In an ironic twist, however, the unemployment rate climbed to nine percent, according to the Department of Labor.  The unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent in March after dropping continuously since November’s rate of 9.8 percent rate. Economists had predicted that just 186,000 jobs would be added, so the numbers show that the economy is gaining strength.  “What we’re seeing is a sustained pick-up in hiring and it suggests that businesses have gained enough confidence to look past short-term fluctuations in demand,” said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“Headwinds remain, but not enough to derail the recovery or set us back momentarily,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, although she remains cautious about the outlook.  According to Swonk, the increase in new unemployment claims were reported in the weeks after the April jobs surveys.  Job losses in the public sector could intensify, with more teachers getting laid off as the school year ends and local governments deal with budget shortfalls.

The number of officially unemployed Americans totaled 13.75 million in April, an increase over the 205,000 reported in March, according to the Labor Department.  “At this point, coming out of a recession this deep, we should be getting unambiguously huge growth, of 300,000 to 400,000 (new jobs) a month,” said Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist at the Economic Policy Institute.  “And it’s just nowhere near that.  We’re still in a rocky place.”

April’s job growth was in multiple sectors.  For example, the retail industry added 57,100, approximately half at general merchandise stores.  Manufacturing added 29,000 more workers in April.  Since December 2009, factory payrolls have risen by 250,000, according to the Labor Department.  Business and professional services, whose wages tend to be higher than average, grew by 51,000, with consulting businesses, computer services and architectural firms experiencing growth.  Educational and health services, and the leisure industry, each also added nearly as many jobs.  Even the construction industry saw a small gain in April.  Government was the sole employment group that declined; its payrolls contracted by 24,000, primarily due to cuts at state and public agencies.

According to Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, “The last three months we’ve added more than a quarter million jobs, on average, every month.  That’s very heartening and the fact that it was, really, across a whole lot of industries.”

According to Heather Boushey, an economist at the Center for American Progress, a non-profit think tank in Washington, D.C., “We need to see job growth break above 300,000 a month and stay at that level for many months before the unemployment rate will begin to come back down.  Today’s report provides a number of data points that point toward caution in interpreting the data positively in anticipation of that level of jobs growth returning anytime soon.  The average hours worked for production and nonsupervisory employees was 33.6 hours per week in April, the same as in March.  This remains below the 2000s recovery peak of 33.9 hours per week, and far below the late 1990s peak of 34.6 hours per week.  At the same time, employers shed 2,300 temporary workers, which either means they are hiring permanent employees or they are no longer seeing an increase in demand.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, General | No Comments »

Home Delinquencies Fall; Foreclosures Rise

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

Fewer borrowers currently are delinquent on their home loans, a Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) report shows.  Curiously, new foreclosures are rising in states like California.  This is evidence that the nation still must endure significant pain before the housing crisis finally comes to an end.  According to some analysts, the nation is only halfway through the wrenching grip of the foreclosure epidemic.  That’s reflected in the housing market, where sales and prices continue to sag despite record low interest rates.  Five years after the crisis began, 7.99 percent of all mortgages were behind by at least one payment in the 3rd quarter but not yet in foreclosure.  Nevertheless, that’s down by nearly half a percentage point from the 2nd quarter and more than one percent when compared with last year.

The percentage of American mortgages that were somewhere in the foreclosure process at the end of the 3rd quarter was 4.43 percent, a slight increase over last year.  The rate of homes in foreclosure was highest in the East and Midwest that route residential repossessions through the courts, with Florida at more than 14 percent and New Jersey at eight percent.

Rather surprisingly, new foreclosures rose to 1.08 percent of all loans from 0.96 percent in the prior three months, according to the MBA. The rate had been declining since the 3rd quarter of 2010, when regulators began investigating robo-signing.  Some of the nation’s largest banks temporarily halted foreclosures while they addressed claims of flaws in their court documents.  The moratoriums clogged the entire foreclosure pipeline as banks investigated their procedures, said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight.  “Banks are starting to speed up the process now that they’ve cleaned up their paperwork,” Newport said.  “We’re seeing the backlog begin to move.”

Unfortunately, the improvement may be short lived.  For the 4th quarter, the pace probably will slow to 2.3 percent, according to the median estimate among 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.  The pace likely will slow to two percent in the first three months of 2012, according to the estimates.  “While the delinquency picture changed for the better in the 3rd quarter, the foreclosure data indicated that we are not out of the woods yet and that the issues continue to vary by geography,” Michael Fratantoni, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s vice president of research and economics, said.

“That’s really just reflecting the modest improvement we’ve seen in the economy broadly and the job market in particular,” Fratantoni said. “Job growth is not what we want it to be, but it’s been good enough to keep the unemployment rate at least level and that’s been beneficial here with fewer people falling behind.”

“While foreclosure activity in September and the 3rd quarter continued to register well below levels from a year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up,” said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.  “Third quarter foreclosure activity increased marginally from the previous quarter, breaking a trend of three consecutive quarterly decreases that started in the fourth quarter of 2010,” according to Saccacio.  “This marginal increase in overall foreclosure activity was fueled by a 14 percent jump in new default notices, indicating that lenders are cautiously throwing more wood into the foreclosure fireplace after spending months trying to clear the chimney of sloppily filed foreclosures.”

Foreclosure were filed on 214,855 U.S. properties in September, a six percent decrease from August and a 38 percent decrease when compared with September of 2010.  September marked the 12th consecutive month where foreclosure activity decreased on a year-over-year basis.

A report issued by the Center for Responsible Lending found that 6.4 percent of mortgages created between 2004 and 2008 ended in foreclosure.  Another 8.3 percent of mortgages are at “immediate, serious risk.”  According to Fratantoni, “Given the pace of foreclosure sales — about one million foreclosure sales a year — it’s a three- or four-year process to get it back to a more typical level of foreclosed properties.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity fell to 77.3 percent of total applications from 78.6 percent the previous week.  The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.1 percent from 5.8 percent of all applications.  In October, 50.6 percent of refinancing applications opted for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 28.8 percent opted for 15-year fixed loans and six percent went with ARMs.  In terms of applications for home purchase mortgages, 85.5 percent were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 6.9 percent for 15-year fixed loans and 5.9 percent for ARMs, the lowest share of that vehicle for purchases since January.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, Financing, General, Residential | No Comments »

Spain’s New Financial Hit: S&P Downgrades Its Credit Rating

Tuesday, November 15th, 2011

Standard & Poor’s slashed Spain’s credit rating to AA-, three steps beneath the highly desirable AAA, underscoring the challenges facing Europe’s major powers as they meet G20 counterparts over the eurozone debt crisis.  S&P, whose move mirrored that by fellow ratings agency Fitch, cited high unemployment, tightening credit and high private-sector debt.  Spanish 10-year government bond yields climbed slightly in response, although they are still nearly 60 basis points lower than those of Italy.

“Despite signs of resilience in economic performance during 2011, we see heightened risks to Spain’s growth prospects due to high unemployment, tighter financial conditions, the still high level of private sector debt, and the likely economic slowdown in Spain’s main trading partners,” according to S&P.  Spain’s Economy Minister Elena Salgado noted that there would be some margin for maneuver this year thanks to about two billion euros raised by an auction of wireless frequencies and lower interest payments.  “Interest payments by the central government will be at least two billion euros below budget.  So the combined effect of the spectrum auction and lower interest payments will mean we have a margin of 0.4 percent (of GDP)” Salgado said.

S&P took note of Spain’s “signs of resilience in economic performance during 2011” but saw “heightened risks” to the country’s prospects for growth.  Elevated unemployment, tighter financial conditions, and an external debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 50 percent and the likely economic slowdown of Spain’s main trading partners are the downgrade’s primary causes.  S&P noted that the “economy” variable in its credit-rating equation was responsible for the downgrade.  Spain’s GDP, according to S&P, will likely grow about 0.8 percent in 2011 and nearly one percent in 2012, weaker than S&P’s 1.5 percent estimate made in February.  S&P said that Spain is still in danger of another downgrade if the situation deteriorates.  According to their downside scenario, “We have also adopted a downside scenario, consistent with another possible downgrade.  The downside scenario assumes a return to recession next year, partly as a result of weaker external and domestic demand, with real GDP declining by 0.5 percent in real terms, followed by a weak recovery thereafter.  Under this downside scenario, the current account deficit would decline, but the general government deficit would remain above 5.5 percent of GDP, at odds with the government’s fiscal consolidation targets.”

Investors currently are focusing on“whether European governments can forge a political solution to the sovereign crisis,” said Guy Stear, Hong Kong-based credit strategist at Societe Generale SA.  The longer-term question is “whether austerity plans will work,” he said.

S&P pointed out ongoing challenges facing Spain. “The financial profile of the Spanish banking system will, in our opinion, weaken further, with the stock of problematic assets rising further,” according to S&P analysts.  Spain is being held back by “uncertain growth prospects in light of the private sector’s need to access fresh external financing to roll over high levels of external debt amid rising costs and a challenging external environment.”

Simon Denham, the head of Capital Spreads, noted that “S&P and Moody are working overtime at the moment downgrading bank after bank and European country after European country which reminds us of the dangerous situation that the eurozone is in.  However, as mentioned, the overriding theme that something will be done to sort the mess out is keeping equity markets afloat and the FTSE remains just above the 5,400 level at the time of writing.”

Steven Barrow, currency strategist at Standard Bank, offers this perspective.  “The move follows a similar downgrade from Fitch last week and hence does not have a huge shock factor for the market.  Nonetheless, it clearly questions the markets ability to continue with the more optimistic tone towards the debt crisis that seems to have been reflected in the euro recently – although not necessarily in the bond markets.”

 

Catalina Parada, Marketing Consultant, is Alter NOW’s Madrid correspondent.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, General | No Comments »

Recent College Grads Can Expect Starting Salaries 10 Percent Below 2000 Levels

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

Recent college graduates can expect to earn 10 percent less than they did as long ago as 2000.  In fact, one of the longest-lasting legacies of the great recession may be its negative impact on the lifetime careers of young graduates.  The current high unemployment rate will leave many of them a step behind throughout their careers.  A study conducted by Yale School of Management economist Lisa Kahn determined that workers who graduated from college during the recession of the early 1980s were still in worse shape financially than workers who graduated in better times after approximately 2006.  When young college graduates do get a job, it frequently won’t pay well.  According to Census Bureau statistics, the median annual earnings of a worker 25 to 34 years old with a bachelor’s degree was $40,875 last year, a significant decline from the $45,200 reported in 2000, adjusting for inflation.

Despite the dismal salary news, there is good news in that fact that hiring for 2011 graduates is up 10 percent when compared with last year.  Meanwhile, unemployment rates among those with a degree is less than half the national average.  It’s those with just a high school education whose unemployment rates are above the national average.

The typical wage for recent college graduates has fallen by nearly $1 per hour over the last 10 years, according to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).  Despite the lack of growth in entry-level wages, a college degree remains a worthy investment.  According to the EPI’s Heidi Shierholz, “After gains in the 1980s and particularly in the 1990s, hourly wages for young college-educated men in 2000 were $22.75, but that dropped by almost a full dollar to $21.77 by 2010.  For young college-educated women, hourly wages fell from $19.38 to $18.43 over the same period.  Now, with unemployment expected to remain above 8 percent well into 2014, it will likely be many years before young college graduates — or any workers — see substantial wage growth.”

There is some upbeat news for the class of 2011. Students who will graduated this year received job offers with starting salaries averaging $50,034 annually, a 3.5 percent increase over last year, according to a survey from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE).  Employers said they plan to increase hiring of college graduates by 13.5 percent compared with 2010.  Business majors were the best positioned, with the average starting salary rising nearly two percent to $48,089.  Accounting majors received salary offers of $49,022, up 2.2 percent, while finance majors were offered an average of $50,535, an increase of 1.9 percent.  Starting salaries for business administration/management graduates fell slightly to $44,171, down 2.3 percent.  Engineering graduates — typically one of the highest-paying fields — didn’t see a big change, with the average starting salary down 0.3 percent but still impressive at $59,435.

Certain engineering majors saw noteworthy increases, with electrical engineering majors receiving an average salary offer of $61,690 — up 4.4 percent over 2010.  Mechanical engineering salaries rose 3.8 percent to $60,598, although it didn’t pay as well to graduate with a degree in civil engineering, with starting salaries in that field slipping 7.1 percent to $48,885.  While the association’s survey didn’t break out starting salaries for individual liberal arts majors, offers were up an impressive 9.5 percent to $35,633.  That compares to a steep decline of 11 percent last year.

The financial crisis is forcing Americans to re-think what they want out of a college education. “Students and families are becoming more savvy consumers about how they get their degrees, where they go to school and how they pay for it.  I think that is long overdue,” said Edie Irons, the Institute for College Access and Success’s communications director.  “It used to be that a college degree seemed like a ticket to ride, but there are no guarantees anymore that once you get that degree, you’re going to get a great job and do really well financially.  There’s been research that has shown students graduating in a recession earn lower incomes throughout their lifetimes than those graduating in a boom,” Irons said.  “It is a real concern, and we think graduates need good information about how to manage their debt.”

According to Brandon Lagana, director of admissions at Northern Illinois University, students are being more fluid in their approach to college.  Some chose a more affordable university, others start at a two-year institution then finish at a four-year school, and some wait a few years before starting any schooling.  “We’re certainly seeing students using more options to a degree than they ever did before,” he said.

Read my recent Huffington Post article about college education and debt here.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, General | No Comments »

July Jobs Numbers Disappoint

Monday, October 3rd, 2011

ADP, a leading payroll services company, is reporting that private companies added 114,000 jobs in July.  Many analysts had projected an increase in hiring from June, but it is not likely that the unemployment rate will decline even if job growth rose sharply.  ADP’s forecasts are frequently used to measure how the labor economy is performing, but the firm has had its share of missteps, with some estimates on target and others varying sharply from actual government-issued data.  In June, ADP projected that more than 140,000 jobs were added.  The official government report showed that the labor economy had experienced anemic growth during the month, with a net total of only 18,000 jobs created.  Many economists and industry believe that private employers likely added more jobs than previously projected during July.

Not all the news was good, however. Employers announced 66,414 planned layoffs in July, an increase of 60.3 percent over the 41,432 announced in June, according to a report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Any gain or loss in jobs above 100,000 is considered statistically noteworthy by economists.  Expectations were rather low, however, given the recent bad news about GDP, consumer spending and manufacturing recently.  “We still expect that actual payrolls may have risen by around 50,000 in July,” according to Capital Economics.  “That would be better than the previous two months, but hardly reason for cheer.”  “This pace of job creation usually implies a steady unemployment rate,” according to ADP’s employment report.  Capital Economics said that the latest job gains would not reduce the unemployment rate.  “We are in a process of discovery over whether the slowdown we have seen since March in the U.S. is over and we are entering a new phase of faster growth or that we are in a slump,” said Francisco Torralba, economist at Morningstar Investment Management.

Recently released Institute of Supply Management (ISM) numbers indicate an economy that continues to move barely at a snail’s pace.  The non-manufacturing ISM report showed expanding business activity, new orders and employment, but at a slowing pace.  Planned layoffs reached a 16-month high while the private sector added 114,000 jobs in June, most of them in the small business and the services sector.  “Today’s report shows modest job creation for the month of July at a rate of half what is needed for meaningful employment and economic recovery,” said Gary C. Butler, Chief Executive Officer of ADP. Approximately half of June’s private sector job additions came from small business, which added 58,000 employees, and medium businesses (+47,000).  These statistics mesh with the Challenger, Gray & Christmas job-cuts report, which showed planned layoffs hitting a 16-month high on a “sudden and unexpected burst” in downsizing by large companies.  Merck, Borders, Cisco, Lockheed Martin, and Boston Scientific announced plans to cut 38,000 jobs in July, 58 percent of the 66,414 announced.   According to Dave Rosenberg, who is viewed by many as a perma-bear, it will be really hard for a self-sustaining recovery to pick up.  “The overhang of excessive debt burdens is still with us today and the problem with the government stimulus programs that were put into place is that they were not designed properly; the multiplier impacts never did kick in,” said Rosenberg. “So we can’t ‘grow’ our way out.  Now government sectors in nearly every jurisdiction are tightening their fiscal belts.  Companies and banks retain their extreme stash of cash, if we dare suggest, because they see the economic environment that we do and want to survive the next downturn.”

In the meantime, 400,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment claims in the last week of July, according to the Department of Labor.  Coupled with a revision of initial claims in the previous week to 401,000, the latest update means claims have yet to dip below the 400,000 mark for 17 weeks.

Writing for The Hill, Vicki Needham says that “Economists say these figures are in line with the economy’s slowing expansion and are expecting growth to accelerate through the second half of the year as temporary factors such as high gas prices fade.  While companies aren’t hiring, consumers are being cautious with their money, spending less for the first time in 20 months.  Consumer spending rose only 0.1 percent in the 2nd quarter and households tucked away more savings.”

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, General | No Comments »

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, who often discusses the economy, recently said something disturbing and fascinating about the possibility of a double-dip recession.  According to Zandi, it could be the only recession that we will ourselves into.   Zandi was talking about gloomy expectations that make people so nervous that in terms of economics, they freeze.  His remarks are a reminder that while we regularly report economic data – unemployment, cost of living, home prices, trade deficits – there are other measures of our economy that are, by definition, subjective.  Do we feel secure?  Do we have confidence in the future to the point where we’re willing to spend money and take risks?

According to Dennis Jacobe of the Gallup Organization, “We’re a lot less confident than we normally are. Three out of four right now will say the economy is getting worse.  And that’s a number that approximates the numbers of late 2008.  I think the American people don’t see the economy that most of us economists and the public policymakers see.  Americans see high unemployment rates and are concerned about losing their job.  They’re concerned about higher food prices and higher energy prices, even though we say that there’s not much inflation.  They’re worried about the housing market.  And then on top of that, they’re worried about things like politics and the confrontational kind of stalemate in D.C. 

“That certainly had an impact according to our numbers,” according to Jacobe.  And what we see happening over the last several weeks is interesting in the sense that the average American, middle and lower income American, has been fairly pessimistic for quite a while with all these things that have been bothering them.  But what we’ve seen happen recently is that things like the confrontation over the debt ceiling bill and on other kinds of things seem to have troubled upper-income Americans.  Now, they’re also affected by what’s happening on Wall Street and what’s happening internationally with the problems in Europe and those kind of things, but when upper-income people also get very pessimistic, that’s when our numbers get up to three-quarters or 80 percent of Americans being worried. 

“There really isn’t.  And, you know, I think that one of the things that’s happening is that we’re not paying enough attention to consumer psychology as opposed to Wall Street and investor psychology.  People all the time talk about how that affects Wall Street and how when Europe has had financial problems, they thought – people thought back to 2008 and the financial crisis and all those kind of things.  But the average American is affected by the same kind of thing.  They saw tremendous financial shock in 2008 and early 2009.  And they saw that in their lives and in terms of not only credit access, but also in terms of their jobs and their job security.  And I think people forget that when a lot of these things happen, like the budget confrontation, that that brings back memories of those days and those troubles.  And that has a major impact on consumer psychology.  So the statement like Zandi made makes a lot of sense in the sense that consumers actually are impacted today differently than, say, in years past,” Jacobe said.

“The trouble is people are so shell-shocked and haven’t really gotten over the recession,” according to Zandi.  “They’re extraordinarily nervous, and when anything goes off script even a little bit they freeze, and that’s where we are right now and why we are so close to recession.”

In discussing the recent Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the United States’ credit rating from AAA to AA+, Zandi believes that there is a logical apprehension that a financial market selloff could feed on itself, doing real economic damage if it drags on.  Wary households might respond by cutting back on spending, and anxious businesses would be even more cautious about investing and hiring.  This could cause a double-dip recession, which would only intensify the nation’s fiscal troubles.  Federal Reserve policymakers are certain to take this into account.  S&P might even downgrade other nations’ sovereign debt, since the U.S. government provides vital support to the entire global financial system. This could increase borrowing costs for homebuyers seeking mortgages and businesses that want to expand.  The impact on lending rates would be small, a few basis points at most.  Financial markets should be able to weather the S&P downgrade, with little lasting economic impact.  “Fundamentally the United States does not deserve a downgrade, because policymakers have made significant strides toward fiscal responsibility.  The debt-ceiling deal was a vital step that doesn’t solve the nation’s problems, but it goes more than halfway,” Zandi said.

One idea that Zandi has to stimulate the economy is to take back unspent dollars from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) and spend it on projects or on short-term stimuli like food stamps.  This is easier said than done and might create more problems than it fixes.  “It’s meaningful, but it’s not a game-changer,” Zandi said.  “From an economic and political perspective, I’m not sure that would make a lot of sense to do.  A lot of this spending has generated a lot of planning, a lot of environmental designs.  They’re counting on the money. If you’re going to divert it, you’re going to create all kinds of problems for them.”

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, General | No Comments »

Warren Buffet Bullish on U.S. Credit Rating

Monday, August 22nd, 2011

Standard & Poor’s may have downgraded the United States credit rating from AAA to AA+ and the bears may have taken over Wall Street, but the Berkshire Hathaway chairman and billionaire Warren Buffett believes that the nation deserves a AAAA rating.

In a recent appearance on CNBC, Buffett said that he still believes that the United States’ debt is AAA and that he’s not changing his mind about Treasuries based on Standard & Poor’s downgrade.  “If anything, it may change my opinion on S&P,” according to the Oracle of Omaha.  “I wouldn’t dream of putting it anywhere else,” Buffett said, noting that at Berkshire, the only reason he’s sold Treasuries in the past is to purchase stocks or make acquisitions.  Berkshire is still buying T-bills, even though yields have declined.  “If I have to buy (Treasuries) at a zero percent yield, I will,” he said.  “I don’t like it, but we’ll do it.”

Buffett has something of a vested interest in criticizing Standard & Poor’s.  Berkshire Hathaway is one of the biggest shareholders in Standard & Poor’s main competitor Moody’s with about 28 million shares. But the billionaire has long urged people to make their own decisions about an investment’s prospects without relying on credit rating agencies.  Buffett said the action doesn’t change his view on the soundness of U.S. Treasury bills.  At least $40 billion of Berkshire Hathaway’s approximately $48 billion cash and equivalents is in U.S. Treasury bills, and Buffett won’t consider investing it elsewhere.

According to Buffett, America’s leaders may have a difficult time agreeing on the country’s financial future and the value of the dollar may slide, but that won’t keep the world’s richest nation from paying its debts.  The United States has a GDP of about $48,000 per person, and the Federal Reserve can always print more money.  “Our currency is not AAA, and in recent months the performance of our government has not been AAA, but our debt is AAA,” Buffett said.

Writing on the InvestorPlace.com website, Jeff Reeves says that “Before you scoff that Buffett is just a bygone relic of an era during which stocks like General Electric truly did have bulletproof dividends and it would have been unfathomable for stocks like General Motors to go bankrupt, consider this: In September 2008, the depths of the financial crisis when nobody knew which bank would fail next, Buffett and Berkshire dumped $5 billion into preferred stock of Goldman Sachs.  Thanks to the 10 percent interest on those shares, Berkshire Hathaway earned a cool $500 million per year in dividends before Goldman bought back the stock several months ago.  What’s more, the investment bank paid a hefty 10 percent premium to buy back those preferred shares.  Maybe it was crazy to jump into banks headfirst when the market was going haywire in 2008.  But it was awfully profitable for Buffett.  You might think it’s crazy to stick to your buy-and-hold strategy now, or to continue to rely on U.S. Treasury Bonds.  But take a deep breath and remember that not everyone is screaming and running for the hills.  Yes, persistent problems with unemployment, the political bickering in Congress and the flatlining of our American economy are serious issues.  But they are hardly new.”

Not everyone agrees with Buffett.  According to the Equity Master website, “We must say that we do not agree with Mr. Buffett.  We are not arguing with the credibility of S&P, whose reputation admittedly became tainted when it gave the highest rating to many mortgaged backed securities in the months leading up to the demise of Lehman.  But that does not mean that the U.S. is without some serious problems.  Indeed, the U.S.’ mounting debt is a huge cause for concern and the government’s latest move to raise the debt ceiling is only likely to postpone an eventual default and not entirely extinguish it.  Moreover, the claim that the U.S. can pay its debt because it can print more money is a dangerous one to make.  Printing money never really solved America’s problems.  The two big quantitative easing programs and their failure to revive the sagging U.S. economy is testimonial to the fact.  One thing that it will certainly do is bring down the value of the dollar and cause inflation to accelerate posing a fresh set of problems for the U.S.  So, while criticisms can be piled on S&P, downgrading of the U.S.’ credit rating is something that the world’s largest economy had a long time coming.”

Firstpost agrees that Buffett is wrong.  “Among other things, he said that the U.S. deserved a AAA credit rating when the S&P decided to bring it down to AA+. He also believes the U.S. will avert a double-dip recession.  Well, Mr. Buffett, you are already half-wrong. A slow-growing nation with a 100 percent debt-to-GDP ratio cannot be AAA by any stretch of economic logic.  It makes India’s 70-72 percent debt-GDP ratio look like the epitome of prudence.  As for the other half of your prediction – that the U.S. will avoid a double-dip recession – the jury is out on that one, but the recession wasn’t the reason for the S&P downgrade anyway.  There are two reasons, or maybe three, why the U.S. is in a mess.  One is that it is overleveraged – in deep debt – both at the level of government and the common people.  Two, the law that the U.S. can indefinitely live beyond its means has a flaw.  It was built on the assumption that dollar debts can be paid off by printing more of the green stuff forever.”

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics, General | 1 Comment »

« Older Entries