Posts Tagged ‘U.S. economy’

Sovereign Wealth Funds Still Interested in U.S. Real Estate

Wednesday, May 13th, 2009

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been closely watching the credit crisis evolve, according to a Deloitte LLP report.  The good news is that they haven’t entirely lost their taste for American commercial real estate. water-academy-wokshop-dsc_0451

Consider that two of 2008′s highest profile transactions were the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s $800 million acquisition of the iconic Chrysler Building and the Kuwait Investment Authority’s $3.95 billion joint venture to acquire the General Motors Building and three additional office towers.

Deloitte notes that SWFs are breaking with their “traditionally conservative, passive investment practices” to pursue interests in partnerships and joint ventures with American real estate firms and investors.  “This shift to broader and more active investment relationships may require that SWFs pay greater attention to increased political, media and public scrutiny, as well as their need for greater operational transparency,” according to the report.

SWFs will stick to the playbook of acquiring trophy and other Class A assets.  It’s unlikely that SWFs will focus on non-performing loans since that would require extensive involvement in the American legal system of foreclosure/bankruptcy in order to protect their rights as lenders.  The relative strength of the dollar — to the extent it is an indicator of future strengthening of the U.S. economy ahead of other countries — could be considered a way to protect the risk of any further currency decline in the home currencies of the SWFs.

We Are in a Recession

Friday, December 5th, 2008

It’s now official.  We are in a recession and it started a lot longer ago than we thought – in December of 2007.  That’s the verdict of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee, the non-profit organization that economists and the government regard as the arbiter on recessions.

According to the organization’s official statement, reported in Commercial Property News, “The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007.  The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession.  That expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.”  Unfortunately, the economic think tank did not suggest when the economy is likely to turn around.  According to the Chicago Tribune, the recession may continue well into 2009 or even 2010.

The good news here is that we’re finally using a definition of recession that actually makes sense.  Using the standard definition, the current slowdown does not meet the usual criterion, which is two consecutive quarters that show a decline in the GDP (the first two quarters of 2008 were in positive territory, with the third quarter registering a 0.5 percent decline).  The NBER instead considered a wider variety of indicators, including employment, industrial production and personal income, in declaring the recession.