Posts Tagged ‘vacancy rates’

Washington, D.C., Office Market Showing Signs of Stabilization

Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010

Washington, D.C., office vacancies shrank by 715,384 SF during the fourth quarter of 2009.Washington, D.C. office leasing is on the upswing for the first time in a year.  Not surprisingly for the District, the rise in leasing activity is driven primarily by expanding federal agencies. A study by CB Richard Ellis of fourth quarter leasing activity showed that the private sector is again leasing space they had subleased in late 2008 and early 2009, a sign that they might be on the verge of rehiring laid-off employees.  According to the report, the amount of vacant space shrank 715,384 SF during the fourth quarter.  That is a major change from the third quarter, when vacant space grew by 375,558 SF.

Vacancy rates reached a  high of 11.8 percent last year, thanks to the region’s net loss of 24,000 jobs and new office buildings coming on line.  Now, commercial real estate brokers are seeing new interest from law firms, associations and financial service firms wanting to lease space.  Some are planning for future growth, while others are taking advantage of large discounts being offered to attract new tenants.  “We have clients call and say maybe this is the time to go into the market and see what’s available,” said Ernie Jarvis, managing director of CB Richard Ellis’ Washington office.

Approximately 32 percent of commercial leases are with the federal government, an increase over the 21 percent reported in recent years.  In normal years, the government has three of the top 10 transactions in the region; that rose to eight in 2009.  These include 802,000 SF leased by the Department of Health and Human Services in Rockville, MD; 503,000 SF leased by the Drug Enforcement Administration in Pentagon City, VA; and 360,000 SF leased by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in North Bethesda, MD.

TIC Owners Caught in the Downturn

Monday, July 13th, 2009

While the commercial real estate market waits to bottom out, dozens of smaller buyers who pooled their dollars to buy office buildings during the boom may be in worse shape than large institutional investors.  These tenants-buy-sell-exchange-photoin-common (TIC) funds, which allow smaller investors to own multiple office buildings together, are facing the same issues as giant retirement funds and institutional owners - higher vacancies, falling rental rates and frozen credit markets.

Lenders are skittish about refinancing loans due on properties with multiple owners who may be unwilling or unable to add equity or pay for buildings costs, such as commissions and management expenses.  This places fund owners in a tricky position.

TIC funds let up to 35 investors acquire properties they couldn’t afford independently.  The mechanism also lets them defer capital gains on properties they’ve sold by rolling the proceeds into another property - known as a 1031 exchange.  Careless underwriting standards and overly rosy projections failed to project that lease rates would fall while vacancy rates rose.  As a result, investors expected returns that were impossible to deliver - especially in an economic downturn that has turned a once over-priced office market into a soft one with increasing vacancies that reduce cash flow.

No Port in the Global Fiscal Storm

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009

Shipping activity has plunged as much as one-third at U.S. ports most heavily invested in the once red-hot but now declining Asia trade. 

Freight rates from South China to Europe have slid as much as 42 percent from some ports since November, leading shipping industry authority Drewry Container Freight Rate Insight Report to speculate that this once-robust market is in freefall.titanic-sinking-7790481

As freight rates fall to record lows shipping companies are playing hardball to remain competitive, even though relatively little product is being shipped these days.  According to Drewry, container lines could see a $68 billion plunge in global revenues this year, compared with 2008 revenues of $220 billion.  Drewry notes that global all-in freight rates fell to $1,681 per 40-foot box, down from $2,098 in November.  That’s a steep $400 drop per feu (forty-foot equivalent unit) or 20 percent in just two months.

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are slashing cargo rates to retain old customers and attract whatever new business they can.  Spanning 10,000 acres, these vast ports typically handle $357 billion in goods every year.  The ripple effect of this year’s overall 18.1 percent downturn is evident in California’s vital Inland Empire logistics market, where higher vacancy rates - now approaching nine percent — are translating to cheaper rents.

Conditions are slightly better at the East Coast ports of New York and New Jersey, because their diverse mix of trading partners include Asia, Europe, Latin America and South America.

Fed Chairman Bernanke Takes Steps to Restart the Economy

Friday, November 7th, 2008

Ben Bernanke has spoken.  The Fed chairman and the Federal Reserve moved recently to stimulate the economy when the policy-making committee cut the federal funds rate - the rate at which banks lend to each other - to just one percent.  This represents a half percentage point cut from the previous 1.5 percent rate.  By contrast, during the summer of 2007, this rate was 5.25 percent.

There is more good news.  Treasury rates have stabilized.  The value of the dollar and the yen are soaring.  The price of oil has fallen to less than $70 a barrel.  The New York Stock Exchange rose nearly 900 points in a single day, following the lead of markets ranging from Tokyo to Hong Kong to London.  The inflation rate is just 4.9 percent.  Unemployment is 5.7 percent - a lower proportion than was seen during previous recessions of recent decades.

And, according to NAI Global’s recent Capital Markets Update, the doomsayers who describe the current situation as “the worst economic situation ever” either are very young or have short memories.  The seemingly endless stagflation of 1973 - 1981 was far worse; so was the collapse of the savings-and-loan industry from 1989 - 1993.  The dot.com failure and September 11 wiped out more wealth when compared with the GDP.

Commercial real estate is in far better shape than the early 1990s, thanks to lower vacancy rates, higher rents and shorter construction pipelines.  Delinquency rates are virtually non-existent, though that situation could easily change.  Published in September of 2008, NAI Global’s report projects that recovery will occur within nine to 15 months.