Posts Tagged ‘Washington DC’

Commercial Real Estate Still Troubled

Monday, July 6th, 2009

Don’t look for the country’s commercial real estate market to improve any time soon.  In fact, expect it to continue to get worse for the next year or so.  That was the conclusion from a panel at the National Association of Real Estate Editors journalism conference in Washington, D.C., that addressed the question:  “Commercial Real Estate in the Obama Era:  Next Domino to Fall?”

“The (other) shoe has dropped,” NAREIT president Steve Wechsler said of commercial real estate.  While the public commercial real estate market of publicly traded REITs likely hit bottom in March, the remaining 90 percent of the market that is private won’t bottom out until next year.6a00e551d321cb883401157034b517970c-800wi

The $6 trillion property market is split evenly between debt and equity, thanks to the explosion of securitization that occurred in the 10 years prior to the current credit crisis, said Chip Rodgers, Jr., a senior vice president of the Real Estate Roundtable.  At the end of 2008, the commercial real estate industry had $3.5 trillion of outstanding debt.  Ten years ago, the industry’s outstanding debt was $1.3 trillion.

Washington-based Real Estate Roundtable has a plan to help end the crisis that’s paralyzed practically all speculative development on the commercial side.

First, Rodgers said, the Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility (TALF) program needs to be expanded to include commercial mortgage based securities.  Rodgers expects this to restart the securitization market.

Second, the United States needs to repeal or change tax laws that have curtailed foreign investment.  Changing the laws will attract new capital to the market.

Also, accounting rules and regulations need to be amended to ensure they do not create “a pro-cyclical impact on credit capacity,” Rodgers said.  And, banks that have existing cash flow need to be encouraged to extend loans.

The panel’s third member, Jamie Woodwell, a commercial real estate researcher at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said the current real estate recession differs from the 2001 recession.  In 2001, the dot-com bust results in large amounts of office vacancies while the retail market remained relatively stable.  Vacancy rates in office were closely tied to the country’s unemployment numbers.

“This time around,” Woodwell said, retail is more closely following unemployment numbers and being hit harder than the office market.  “More firms still have (office) leases in place,” he said.

But things will change, Woodwell said.  “Real estate is a very cyclical business, especially now.”

Our guest blogger is Tony Wilbert.  He is owner of Wilbert News Strategies, a public relations firm specializing in real estate.  Prior to moving into PR, Wilbert covered real estate at several newspapers and served as editor of National Real Estate Investor.

How Will President Obama Impact Commercial Real Estate? Part 1

Thursday, December 18th, 2008

With change expected to begin in Washington, D.C., on January 20, 2009, the commercial real estate industry is bracing itself for the incoming Obama administration and the 111th Congress.  CoStar Advisor recently polled commercial real estate professionals on the top issues of the first 100 days.  The resulting list includes such policy issues as saying “no” to capital-gains increases and other investment taxes; moving forcefully to stabilize the Treasury and capital markets; suspending market rules regulating perceived asset value; making the biggest investment in the public infrastructure since the 1950s; and reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The overall attitude within the industry, according to a poll by National Real Estate Investor, is negative because of Obama’s plan to hike taxes on dividend income, capital gains and high-earning individuals.  The poll notes that 54 percent of responders are registered Republicans.

So, should our industry be wary of the new team?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Commercial-real-estate-stocks-rally/story.aspx?guid=%7BF3669FE9-C7E9-4D5C-9A85-AE7FECF0E5DF%7D

Foreign Investors Like Luxury

Thursday, May 1st, 2008

You know what they say about polls.  Still, a recent one is an interesting temperature reading for the new economy.   Overseas investors in United States real estate prefer retail versus office or industrial space right now, according to a recent issue of Commercial Property News. This is just one conclusion in a survey that examined the influence of the current housing slump on the economy and consumer spending.  Nearly 200 members of the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE) revised their favored property rankings from the previous year.  Retail soared to first from fifth place, while hotels fell from second to fourth place  Office space plunged from first place to last. “While foreign investors are aware of the high occupancy and rental-rate increases in the office market, they fear that the credit crunch will cause tenants to lay people off and contract their space needs,” reported Karin Shewer, a principal for New York City-based Real Estate Capital Partners, which advises European investors about American real estate markets.  Shewer says multifamily’s lack of popularity is the result of a growing uneasiness with the United States condominium market.“Another issue with multifamily is that cap rates are very low right now and returns are limited,” Shewer said.  The strong preference for hotels relates to aging baby boomers.  According to Shewer, “A lot of baby boomers will inherit from parents who were conservative savers, and as they move toward retirement, they will have more time to travel, and they will occupy hotels.”  So why retail at the top?  Dan Fasulo, managing director for Real Capital Analytics, Inc., notes that “Retail is a diverse property type with many sub-niches.  What these investors might be referencing is high-end urban luxury retail.  We have seen a boom like never before in high-fashion apparel, jewelry and other upscale specialty stores that have been expanding globally as the worldwide economic expansion has driven up disposable incomes of affluent people around the world.”  The AFIRE survey also found that foreign investors still prefer American real estate to that in other countries.  To illustrate, AFIRE’s members collectively own $700 billion worth of real estate worldwide; $230 billion of that is invested in the United States.Lastly, AFIRE members were asked to rank their favorite cities for investment.  New York City and Washington, D.C., took first and second place.  London, Paris and Shanghai completed the list.