Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Jeremy Lin is the World’s Fastest-Growing Sports Brand

Tuesday, March 13th, 2012

Linsanity has infected New York City. The economic impact of Jeremy Lin, the 23-year-old basketball phenomenon for the New York Knicks in just one week is hard to grasp.

According to Times’ Brad Tuttle, “The phenomenon of undrafted Harvard grad and previous NBA benchwarmer Jeremy Lin is translating into serious money, as Knicks’ ticket prices soar and stores can’t keep up with demand for Lin jerseys and ‘Linsanity’ merchandise.  As is expected in today’s economy, though, when official methods come up short, entrepreneurs on the web fill in the gaps.  A ‘Jeremy Lin’ search at eBay yields 6,598 results, including signed playing cards, jerseys, and T-shirts.  At design-your-own merchandise site Café Press, there are currently 21 different designs, including Linsanity pajamas and Linsanity iPad cases, both with Chinese lettering.”

Consider these statistics:

  • His No. 17 jersey has been the NBA’s top online seller since February 4.
  • Knicks merchandise sales top the NBA since Lin’s breakthrough game.
  • Five of the NBA’s 10 most popular items are Knicks-related since Linsanity began.
  • A midtown Manhattan sporting goods store can’t keep Lin gear in stock; they sold out multiple shipments of jerseys and T-shirts In a single weekend.
  • The Knicks made the most of Linsanity, raising ticket prices by an average of 27 percent since Lin scored 25 points off the bench against New Jersey.
  • Madison Square Garden (MSG) stock has shot up 6.2 percent to $31.25 since the day before Lin started the Knicks on their recent five-game winning streak.

At present, Jeremy Lin’s trend is estimated to be worth $14 million and growing, making him the world’s fastest growing athlete brand.  Writing in Forbes, Mike Ozanian says that “The Knicks had $226 million of revenue during the 2010-11 season, roughly equating to 20 percent of MSG’s overall revenue.  Obviously, you cannot assign Lin one-fifth ($28 million) of MSG’s $139 million increase in market value since he began his magical run (in the past we have determined athlete brand values are the amount by which their endorsement income exceeds the average of the top peers in their sport, but that methodology can’t be applied to Lin, who was a no-name player until very recently).  But we can still get a reasonable estimate.  The New York Times reports that Lin has helped push up television ratings for the Knicks 66 percent over last season.  So if we give Lin credit for half of the $28 million, his brand weighs in at $14 million, which would place him tied with (Kobe) Bryant for sixth among the top athlete brands in the world.  I expect Lin’s endorsements to reach that mark in the near future if he can keep up his stellar play on the hardwood.”  By the 2012 – 2013 season, Forbes estimates that Lin’s brand has the potential be worth as much as $150 million a year.

Ray Ratto of CBS Sports, cautions that despite the Linsanity, all wins are essentially team efforts.  According to Ratto, “Jeremy Lin is not 4-0.  The New York Knicks are 4-0 with Jeremy Lin as their starting point guard.  There is an enormous difference between those two statements, and it is this:  We’ll link those two disparate ideas in a moment, but first, this fact: Wins and losses are not a basketball construct for purposes of evaluating players.  They never have been and never should be, because basketball is a game of tightly interlocking parts excelling for the group’s betterment.  Within that structure, there is great room for individuality and creativity, but it’s still a game of five.  Proof: How many wins does Kobe Bryant have?  How many wins does Steve Kerr have?  Or Satch Sanders?  You don’t know, and if it weren’t for ProBasketballReference.com, you wouldn’t be able to find it quickly, and nobody would ask you anyway.  It’s a meaningless stat, in other words.  The Knicks are playing better with Lin’s skill and energy, and that’s fine, but it doesn’t make him 4-0.  He wouldn’t be 4-0 with Golden State, Dallas or Houston, to name three other teams that didn’t get the benefit of Lin as a player.  He could, though, be part of a team that is 4-0, and given his playing style, that would statement would suit him better.”

Pending Home Sales Rose Two Percent in January

Monday, March 12th, 2012

The Pending Home Sales Index grew by two percent during January from the previous month to 97.0 — considerably above the 1.1 percent growth forecast by economists.  The index has risen eight percent when compared with one year ago.  Relaxed mortgage lending criteria, historically low interest rates and an improving labor market contributed to this growth in pending home sales, said Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics‘ chief U.S. economist.  The index measures the quantity of sales contracts signed on existing home sales.  Created by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), it’s considered a leading indicator that predicts growth throughout the broader residential market.

“Given more favorable housing market conditions, the trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year,” said NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun.  “With a sustained downtrend in unsold inventory, this would bring about a broad price stabilization or even modest national price growth, of course with local variations.”  Pending home sales rose impressively in the Northeast and South, but declined in the Midwest and West.

“Housing demand has bottomed, and we should see some gradual improvement in sales,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas, who predicted a two percent gain in pending sales.  “The dark side of the story is still the oversupply and the expected pickup in foreclosures.  That’s what policymakers really need to think about.”  On the downside, lower appraisals and rejected mortgage applications have broken down more deals.  In January, one-third of Realtors said they experienced contract failures, an increase when compared with the nine percent who said so one year ago, according to the association.

Existing home sales rose to 4.57 million a year in January.  While it was the best report since May of 2010, distressed properties constituted the largest portion of all purchases since April.  Additionally, the median price fell two percent when compared with January of 2011.  “We’re optimistic,” Doug Yearley, CEO at Horsham, PA-based Toll Brothers, said.  “We have orders that are up significantly.  We’re seeing deposits up, we’re seeing traffic up.”

Borrowing costs are still affordably low. The average rate on a 30-year fixed loan was little changed at 4.09 percent in mid-February, , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. It averaged 4.05 percent the week of February 3, its lowest reading on record since 1990.

Another reason why home sales may be on the rise is because of an April deadline for higher mortgage application fees for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed home loans.  The government-controlled mortgage buyers own or guarantee approximately 50 percent of all U.S. mortgages and 90 percent of new loans and have been telling customers to submit their applications now.  Even with the good news, analysts warn that the damage from the housing bust is deep and the industry is years away from full recovery.

According to Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, prices are unlikely to stop falling until the second half of 2012, having dropped 34 per cent over the last five years.  This, and the decline in the supply of homes on the market, which fell last month to the lowest since January 2006, will provide support to the housing recovery.

Economists Predicting Rosier Outlook

Wednesday, March 7th, 2012

Economists are increasingly optimistic that certain elements of the economy will improve throughout 2012, although they are still cautious in their expectations on the overall pace of economic growth.  According to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), forecasters have increased their expectations for employment, new home construction and business spending this year.  But they held on to their average prediction that America’s GDP will grow at a rate of 2.4 percent.  That’s a slight improvement when compared with 2011; economists say the economy grew 1.6 percent last year.

GDP represents the economy’s total output of goods and services.  The latest forecast is in line with one issued by the group last fall that called for the economy to grow 2.4 percent this year.  Forecasters predict growth will be stronger in the second half of 2012 than it will be through June.  NABE economists see the unemployment rate sticking at 8.3 percent this year. That’s improved from their November forecast of 8.9 percent and a sharp drop from October of 2009 when unemployment peaked at 10 percent.  The economists expect job growth to accelerate in 2013, with the unemployment rate falling to 7.8 percent.  GDP growth needs to be above three percent to reduce unemployment significantly.

Homebuilders are expected to break ground on 700,000 new homes this year, a 15 percent increase when compared with 2011.  Another 850,000 are expected to be built in 2013.

The economists are also forecasting robust business spending growth in 2012, slightly raising their forecast to 8.1 percent growth this year.  For 2013, spending is likely to slow slightly, but remain strong at 7.3 percent.  Industrial production is expected to increase more or less 3.5 percent this year and 3.3 percent next year.  Estimates for 2012 spending on new equipment and software rose to 8.1 percent from 8 percent, according to the NABE.

Despite a brightening forecast for employment, housing and business spending, the NABE Outlook Panel expects consumers to continue to save their money this year.  They expect that spending will increase just 2.1 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2013.  The rate is below historical average of 2.8 percent, highlighting an economy that’s going in the right direction, but still sluggish.

The improved jobs outlook comes at the same time as larger gains in business investment and homebuilding than were anticipated.

Three consecutive months of accelerated job growth are sustaining the economic expansion that began in June 2009.  Employers added 243,000 jobs in January, the highest number in nine months.

According to the study, Economists responding to the latest NABE Outlook Survey are seeing strength in a number of economic measures and have subsequently increased their expectations.  Despite increases in a number of forecasts, however, economists remain guarded on US economic growth.  Economists’ expectations for export growth have also weakened over the last four months.  Collectively, forecast uncertainty among the economists appears to have diminished slightly over the last several months.”

In terms of exports, the economists expect 4.6 percent growth in 2012, compared with their November prediction of 6.1 percent.  They also reduced their projection for 2012 import growth from 4.3 percent to 3.5 percent.  Both rates are expected to improve next year.

Jafer Hasnain: The Housing Crisis: Where Do We Stand?

Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

With home sales increasing in six of the last nine months and prices still 30 percent below the peak, the housing market is quite confounding.  That’s the opinion of Jafer Hasnain, Principal and co-founder of Lifeline Assets, a private equity firm that invests in single-family homes.

In a recent interview for the Alter NOW Podcasts, Hasnain said that the nation has 10 million homes whose mortgages are seriously delinquent or even in foreclosure.  According to Hasnain, this is the shadow inventory, which consists of mortgages that are either 90 days late, in foreclosure or bank owned.  If you look at the next four or five years, that number will add up to between six to 10 to maybe 11 million homes.

When asked why President Obama’s Home Affordable Modification Plan (HAMP) didn’t work as intended – a program meant to help five million homeowners that saw only 800,000 sign up – Hasnain quoted the truism “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”  As Hasnain sees it, the obstruction was in HAMP’s implementation.  Although HAMP brought down interest rates to as low as two percent, the real problem for many is that they had lost so much equity, participation simply was not worthwhile.  Because HAMP had no impact on the principal owed, homeowners still owed the same amount of money – which typically was significantly more than the house was worth in today’s market.  Many concluded that it made more sense to let the bank foreclose – a process that takes 700 or more days – live in the house for free, save money so they ultimately could pay the bank a fraction of what they really owed.

Hasnain pointed out that approximately half of all existing mortgages could no be re-underwritten today because of stricter lending standards.  In other words, half of all mortgages are potentially distressed, a fact that distresses Hasnain.  “That reflects society, and that reflects the potential to really crimp consumer spending.  I think housing is the number one, two and three issue right now.”  Part of the trauma is caused because, at one time, most people were convinced that they could always rely on the value of their home.  In the last few years, that balloon has been deflated to the point where we are now witnessing a failure in confidence.  This is a fairly unique problem that most people have never faced, one that calls for creative solutions — whether they come from the government or the private sector.

To listen to Jafer Hasnain’s full interview on where we currently stand on the housing crisis, click here for the podcast.

 

Gordon Gekko Changes His Mind, Says Greed Is Bad

Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

Actor Michael Douglas is playing a new and rather surprising role as spokesman for the FBI to fight corruption on Wall Street.  The actor – famous for his line “greed is good” in the 1987 film “Wall Street” – is sending a new message in a public service announcement, explaining that insider trading is a serious crime.  “The movie was fiction, but the problem is real. To report insider trading, contact your local FBI office,” Douglas says in the spot.

“In the movie ‘Wall Street,’ I played Gordon Gekko, a greedy corporate executive who cheated to profit while innocent investors lost their savings,” according to Douglas.  “The movie was fiction, but the problem is real.  Our economy is increasingly dependent on the success and integrity of the financial markets.  If a deal looks too good to be true, it probably is,” he concludes.  The one-minute commercial opens with Douglas as he looked in 1987 and in the Gekko character famously addressing a fictional shareholders meeting in the movie, before the clip cuts to the grey and older actor who is now working for federal law enforcement.

Douglas’ new role is part of the FBI’s “Perfect Hedge” operation, which has successfully prosecuted 57 individuals in the last five years for insider trading, and is targeting 120 more suspects.  The commercial is part of the ongoing effort, and will feature segments of actual FBI wiretaps from successful prosecutions.

So far, the new video — which is being shown on CNBC and Bloomberg Television — is part of the government’s broader initiative aimed at drawing cooperating witnesses and tipsters from Wall Street.  Previously, insider trading was not one of the FBI’s areas of focus, so potential informants might not have known where to turn, according to the accepted wisdom.  Now that the crime is a top priority for securities investigators, the video is part reminder, part plea for those who have seen something illegal to come forward and provide information.  Additionally, the video is an effort to raise the FBI’s public profile.  As David A. Chaves, a supervisor and special agent, said, “It’s important for us to have the FBI brand out on Wall Street.  He’s talking about himself as Gordon Gekko and the role that he played and how that was fiction and this is not but about real crime on Wall Street.”

Several government agencies are investigating illegal behavior on Wall Street, from the FBI to the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators.  To build their cases, investigators use uncompromising tactics once reserved for organized crime and terrorism cases, such as wiretaps and well-placed cooperators.  The FBI’s attitude is who could be a better spokesman against insider trading than the man who played Gordon Gekko, who came to personify Wall Street crime in both the 1980s and in the recent financial crisis with the 2010 sequel, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.”  “The more people out there aware of the problem, the more opportunities we have to get tips,” said Richard T. Jacobs, a FBI supervisory special agent, who helped bring a major insider trading case which resulted in the conviction of a billionaire hedge fund manager.

The campaign also is targeting embezzlements by stockbrokers and Ponzi schemes — which have surged since the financial collapse of 2008.  Since then, securities and commodities fraud investigations have risen 52 percent, from 1,210 inquiries to 1,846 last year, the FBI said.

According to FBI spokesman Bill Carter, the spot will be distributed to 15 cities — Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Newark, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington and New Haven, CT – all of which have seen an increase of fraud cases or evidence of potential trouble.

Surprisingly, Douglas was “startled over the positive response he received as Gordon Gekko,” Chaves said.  “I don’t know what’s wrong with Wall Street but I would be approached all the time, people would ‘high-five’ me or shake my hand for being this terrible man who stole people’s money.  Where are the values?  What are people thinking when I’m held like a hero in that role?  The culture has to change.”

Attorney General Eric Holder affirmed that the Justice Department is committed to rooting out corporate crime.  “From securities, bank and investment, to mortgage, consumer and health-care fraud, we’ve found that these schemes are as diverse as the imaginations of those who perpetrate them, and as sophisticated as modern technology will permit,” Holder said.

Consumer Watchdog to Keep Eye on Debt Collectors, Credit Reporting Agencies

Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

Debt collectors and credit reporting agencies — businesses that impact thousands of consumers — would face federal supervision for the first time under a rule a new federal watchdog proposal, which would allow the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to examine approximately 200 firms, including large debt collectors.

According to the proposal, these two segments of the consumer finance industry will be a high priority for the CFPB as it scrutinizes the inner-workings of banks, as well as thousands of firms that offer a wide-range of financial services.  The bureau is planning to police payday lenders as well as non-bank firms that offer home and student loans.  Congress created the agency through the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial bill to control misleading financial practices and  examine segments of the financial marketplace that had previously escaped federal scrutiny.

“This oversight would help restore confidence that the federal government is standing beside the American consumer,” said CFPB Director Richard Cordray.  The number of Americans with debt under collection has grown to about 30 million Americans over the past 10 years, according to the New York Federal Reserve.  The average amount under collection has also steadily grown over the years to $1,400.  According to the CFPB, the market is dominated by firms that collect debt owned by another company in return for a fee; firms that purchase debt and collect the proceeds for themselves; and debt collection attorneys and law firms that litigate to collect.

“Our proposed rule would mean that those debt collectors and credit reporting agencies that qualify as larger participants are subject to the same supervision process that we apply to the banks,” Cordray said.

Considering that there are so many consumers struggling with unemployment and debt, Cordray said that more Americans are indebted to debt collectors and credit reporting companies, which employers frequently consult prior to hiring.  Cordray said that employers’ use of credit reports in hiring decisions “may not always be fair for consumers, but it reflects the reach and scope and importance of the consumer reporting field.”  That explains why the bureau wants to target those who gather and analyze consumer financial data, as well as those who are tasked with collecting on unpaid bills.  The consumer bureau will soon announce what other kinds of non-banking financial firms it plans to scrutinize in coming months, Cordray said.

The process of examining records and collecting data from these firms can lead to enforcement if regulators find violations of the law.  In these cases, the consumer bureau could find breaches of the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act or the Fair Credit Reporting Act.  Under the proposal, debt collectors with more than $10 million in yearly receipts from collection will undergo supervision by the consumer bureau.  This threshold would cover nearly 175 debt collection companies — four percent of all such companies — that collectively account for 63 percent of the industry’s annual revenue.

Cordray said the goal is to hold these companies to the same oversight as banks. “This oversight would help restore confidence that the federal government is standing beside the American consumer.”  Cordray continued, “The supervision tool is a very powerful tool. It’s a very powerful way for us to secure compliance with the law. It’s an authority I wish I had had in previous positions.”  He stressed that smaller companies in the two industries are still required to follow consumer protection laws and could be subject to CFPB regulation. But under the proposed rule, the CFPB would gain “complete access” to the books and information of large companies to ensure they are following those requirements, and will devote individual attention to each.

According to Dodd-Frank, the rule must be finalized by July 21, one year after the agency opened its doors.

Whitney Houston’s Music Will Live On

Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

Within 24 hours of pop songstress’ Whitney Houston’s death, the Nielsen SoundScan retail sales monitoring service reported that 91,000 digital albums and another 10,000 physical albums, as well as with 887,000 digital tracks had been sold.  The top-selling album that day was her 2000 compilation “Whitney Houston — Greatest Hits,” which sold 64,000 copies, enough to place it in the Top 10 of Billboard’s Top 200 Albums chart, possibly inside the Top 5.  The most popular song was her hit rendition of “I Will Always Love You,” which accounted for 195,000 of the downloaded tracks.  Additionally, according to Nielsen BDS, that song was played 2,137 times on U.S. broadcast radio stations Saturday and Sunday.

Sales figures constitute an incredible jump in interest in Houston’s music.  Compared with the previous week, her digital album sales increased more than 17,000 percent; sales of the greatest hits collection jumped by more than 10,000 percent; and digital track downloads rose 5,730 percent.  Radio airplay of “I Will Always Love You” was just 134 plays before her death.

“In terms of sales impact, it won’t quite be like Michael Jackson, but it will be big,” Billboard’s associate director of charts Keith Caulfield told MTV News said about the spike in sales for Houston’s albums and songs.

Although Houston only released a single greatest hits package in the United States, it has been the album fans have turned to since her passing.  It is, however, considered “a flawed greatest hits to a lot of people,” Caulfield said.  “Half of it is remixes of her dance songs, so it’s not the familiar version of ‘I Wanna Dance With Somebody.’  It’s not the perfect greatest hits package for fans to turn to, so I don’t think it’s going to sell as well (as Jackson’s).”

Throughout her career, Houston was one of the world’s best-selling music artists, selling more than 170 million albums, singles and videos globally.  Her work includes seven studio albums and three movie soundtrack albums, all of which have gone diamond, multi-platinum, platinum or gold certification.  Her crossover appeal on the popular music charts, as well as prominence on MTV influenced several African-American female artists to emulate her.

Allmusic saluted her contribution to the success of black artists on the pop scene, noting that, “Houston was able to handle big adult contemporary ballads, effervescent, stylish dance-pop, and slick urban contemporary soul with equal dexterity” and that “the result was an across-the-board appeal that was matched by scant few artists of her era, and helped her become one of the first black artists to find success on MTV in Michael Jackson’s wake”.  The New York Times said that “Houston was a major catalyst for a movement within black music that recognized the continuity of soul, pop, jazz and gospel vocal traditions”.

Houston’s legend will continue to grow with her untimely death.  According to Theo Peridis, a professor of strategic management at Canada’s York University, “It’s a very predictable pattern that happens with all famous artists.  They become valuable commodities.  Fundamentally, it’s the realization that it’s the end of the artist’s productivity, that they won’t produce anything more, that sparks the buying frenzy.”

Although Houston’s estate will grow from residual profits, it’s the people who own the rights to her work that will gain the most, Peridis said.  In fact, he said that Houston could be in line to make Forbes magazine’s list of top-earning dead celebrities this year.

Zack O’Malley Greenburg of Forbes doesn’t believe that Houston’s post-mortem earnings will equal those of Michael Jackson.  According to Greenburg, “The details of who will handle Houston’s estate are still in flux, but industry insiders agree that there’s no way she’ll approach the King of Pop in terms of earnings for a number of reasons.  First of all, Michael Jackson left a trove of unreleased material — enough to land the record-breaking deal with Sony.  Though her estate will get a boost from the album sales spike in the wake of her death, Houston didn’t leave behind much in the way of new songs.”

“There will undoubtedly be an immediate hit from people buying music,” said entertainment attorney Donald David, who has represented the Tupac Shakur estate.  “But if she doesn’t have unrecorded tracks, you’re looking at bargain bin best-of albums…those sorts of things don’t have any kind of lifespan, and they don’t produce a lot of money.”

Of the revenue generated by increased sales of Houston’s music, her estate won’t see as much as Jackson’s because he wrote or co-wrote many of his greatest hits, including ‘Billie Jean’ and ‘Beat It.’  Other songwriters wrote the majority of Houston’s work, from ‘I Wanna Dance (With Somebody)’ to ‘I Will Always Love You.’  Dolly Parton wrote the latter, and will receive the publishing revenues from U.S. radio play and licensing to commercials and films.

There’s no denying that Houston’s estate has the potential to take in plenty of money from the artist royalties generated by future album sales.  Michael Jackson sold more than eight million records in the U.S. during the six months after his death, and between 20 and 30 million globally.  If Houston can achieve half of that, her estate has the potential to earn more than $10 million in the coming year from recorded music alone.

Bernanke Defends Fed Policy on Job Growth, Inflation

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

Although the economy has improved in the past year, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers that they still must cut the growing budget deficit.  “We still have a long way to go before the labor market can be said to be operating normally,” Bernanke said in testimony to the Senate Budget Committee.  “Particularly troubling is the unusually high level of long-term unemployment.”

According to Bernanke, the 8.3 percent unemployment rate understates the weakness of the labor market.  He reminded the committee that it is necessary to also consider other measures of the labor market, including underemployment.  Although the jobless rate has fallen five months in a row, it is still higher than the 5.2 to six percent that the Fed believes is consistent with maximum employment.  The percentage of the unemployed who have been jobless for 27 weeks or longer rose to 42.9 percent in January, compared with 42.5 percent in December, according to the Department of Labor.

“Over the past two and a half years, the U.S. economy has been gradually recovering from the recent deep recession,” Bernanke said.  “While conditions have certainly improved over this period, the pace of the recovery has been frustratingly slow, particularly from the perspective of the millions of workers who remain unemployed or underemployed.”

At the same time, Bernanke cautioned the Senators against holding back short-term economic growth by cutting the budget too much in the name of controlling the deficit.

The upbeat jobs data – the private sector added 243,000 jobs in January, sending the unemployment rate down to 8.3 percent – caused some Senators to ask about the Fed’s monetary policy as the economy shows more signs of life.  The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) recently said that it expected to keep interest rates at historically low levels through late 2014.  Bernanke said the strategy is a reaction to concerns that low interest rates might set off inflation by noting that prices did not rise significantly during 2011.

Rather, Bernanke said that the Fed is consciously taking a “balanced approach” to spur economic growth with low inflation.  Previously, Bernanke told the House Budget Committee that the Fed would not sacrifice its two percent inflation goal to jump start employment.  ‘Over a period of time we want to move inflation always back toward 2 percent,” Bernanke told Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI), the committee’s chairman.  “We’re always trying to bring inflation back to the target.”

Bernanke offered a strong defense of the Fed’s inflation goal after Ryan suggested it should tolerate higher inflation to assure maximum employment.  “In looking at the two sides of the mandate, the rate of speed, the aggressiveness, may depend to some extent on the balance between the two objectives,” Bernanke said.  “We are always trying to return both objectives back to their mandate.”  Ryan, who has backed legislation to require the Fed focus exclusively on stable prices, said that he is “greatly concerned to hear the Fed recently announce that it would be willing to accept higher-than-desired inflation in order to focus on the other side of its dual mandate.”

Also during his testimony, Bernanke reiterated a promise to prevent Europe’s financial crisis from harming the American economy. “We are in frequent contact with European authorities, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely and take every available step to protect the U.S. financial system and the economy,” Bernanke told the Senate Budget Committee.

As Foreclosures Decline, Federal Government Makes Deal With 49 States

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

In good news for beleaguered homeowners, the Obama administration announced a $26 billion mortgage settlement, which 49 out of 50 state attorneys general signed on to.  The deal won praise from such groups as the Mortgage Bankers Association, the industry trade group for lenders, and the Center for Responsible Lending, a public interest group advocating for borrowers.

Conservatives suggested that the Obama administration is overreaching, and that the agreement rewards homeowners who haven’t been paying their mortgages.  On the other side, some liberal groups say it falls far short of providing the needed level of help to troubled homeowners hurt by the housing bubble, problems they blame on Wall Street banks and investors.  They would prefer additional relief for homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages.

“It’s a big check with narrow immunity,” said Paul Miller, a former examiner for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and currently an analyst with FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, VA.  “You get the state attorneys general off your back, but you’re not getting immunity from securitizations, which could come with their own steep cost down the road.”

Regulators are “aggressive” on pursuing securities claims and have set up a task force to do so, said Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan.  The $26 billion deal doesn’t protect banks from claims related to faulty loans sold to government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, he said.  “It wasn’t the servicing practices that created the bubble, nor caused its collapse,” Donovan said.  “It was the origination and securitization of these horrendous products.”

Writing on Salon, Matt Stoller says that the deal lets the banks down relatively easily.  “Rather than settling anything, this agreement is simply a continuation of the policy framework of both the Bush and the Obama administrations.  So what exactly is that framework?  It is, as Damon Silvers of the Congressional Oversight Panel which monitored the bailouts, once put it, to preserve the capital structures of the largest banks.  ‘We can either have a rational resolution to the foreclosure crisis or we can preserve the capital structure of the banks,’ said Silvers in October, 2010.  “’We can’t do both.’  Writing down debt that cannot be paid back — the approach Franklin Roosevelt took — is off the table, as it would jeopardize the equity keeping those banks afloat.  This policy framework isn’t obvious, because it isn’t admissible in polite company.  Nonetheless, it occasionally gets out.  Back in August 2010, at an ‘on background’ briefing of financial bloggers, Treasury officials admitted that the point of its housing programs were to space out foreclosures so that banks could absorb smaller shocks to their balance sheets.  This is consistent with the president’s own words a few months later.”

Very gradually, the foreclosure crisis seems to be easing. The number of homes in foreclosure declined by 130,000, or 8.4 percent last year to 830,000, according to a report from CoreLogic, an economic research firm.  That compares with 1.1 million homes foreclosed in 2010.  These are homes whose owners had fallen far behind on payments, forcing lenders to put them into the foreclosure process.  The homes remain in the foreclosure inventory until they’re sold — either at auction or in a short sale, which is when a home is sold for less than the mortgage value — or until homeowners are current again on payments

There are two reasons for the decline in the foreclosure inventory, according to Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist.  “The pace at which properties are entering foreclosure is slowing,” he said.  “And servicers nationwide stepped up the rate at which they were able to process distressed assets.”

In the last few years, homes have entered foreclosure more slowly because lenders carefully scrutinized applicants; only low-risk borrowers are granted loans.  Along with a measured improvement in the economy, this equals fewer borrowers getting into trouble.  Even borrowers in default are avoiding foreclosure in many instance and are being held up by judicial and regulatory constraints, according to Fleming.

The practice of robo-signing, in which banks filed slapdash and sometimes improper paperwork, made lenders more cautious about getting their paperwork in order before foreclosing.  When a bank does put a home into foreclosure, they are trying to speed the process.  One way they’ve done that is by encouraging short sales.  Another is that they’ve stepped up their foreclosure prevention efforts — often with the aid of government programs such as Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which the government says has helped nearly one million Americans stay in their homes.

After foreclosures are completed and the homes are back in the lenders’ hands, they sell quickly.  “This is the first time in a year that REO sales (those of bank-owned properties) have outpaced completed foreclosures,” Fleming said.  In December, there were 103 sales of bank-owned homes for every 100 homes in the foreclosure inventory.  That was a significant increase from November of 2010, when there were only 94 REO sales for every 100 homes in the foreclosure process.

As of December of 2011, Florida still topped the nation’s foreclosure inventory at 11.9 percent, followed by New Jersey with 6.4 percent and Illinois 5.4 percent.  Nevada, consistently the number one foreclosure state in the nation, has fallen to fourth place with 5.3 percent.

Is Sears Really In Trouble?

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

Sears is trading at its lowest level levels since John Kerry won the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary in 2004 — and that’s not good news for one of America’s oldest retailers. The retailer, which owns Kmart as well as the Kenmore, Craftsman and Lands’ End brands, announced  after Christmas that it would close between 100 and 120 Seas and K Mart stores. Unfortunately, the news just appears to be worsening.

Sears shares declined after CIT Group halted lending to Sears suppliers — without comment — out of fear those vendors will not get paid.  The news seemed to confirm it was true without actually saying so.  A Sears’ spokesperson said the firm disagreed with CIT’s actions and that CIT payables affected less than five percent of Sears’ inventories.

“Sears Holdings has more than adequate liquidity and ample resources at our disposal which give us significant financial flexibility,” the spokesperson said, noting that it is “important to separate disappointing operating performance with liquidity.”  The Sears spokesperson said that the company closed out December with $4.2 billion in liquidity.

Paul Swinand, an analyst with Morningstar in Chicago, said CIT may not be the start of a trend. He noted that the company now run by former Merrill Lynch head John Thain may be acting overly conservative because it went bankrupt in 2009.  It can be forgiven for being more risk averse than other lenders.  Swinand did note that Sears has to turn its fortunes around or suppliers could become reluctant to continue selling goods through Sears and Kmart stores. Sears is expected to report massive losses for the fiscal year and analysts are forecasting a decline in sales. Vendors could run out of patience.  “When people talk about a retail death spiral, it starts when vendors start tightening shipments because you could lose the ability to get the best merchandise,” he said. “The worry is that if Sears keeps piling up losses, you have to wonder what companies like Electrolux or Whirlpool might do.”

One risk when a factoring company pulls credit to suppliers is that others may do the same thing. Some factors already have become reluctant to take on shipments to Sears, while others are demanding a “substantial” premium,  Bobby Cohen, CEO of Lochem Capital, said, “There’s so much low-hanging fruit out there that they say to themselves, ‘I don’t need to have a dog in this fight,’” said Cohen, whose Roslyn, NY-based company serves as a broker between buyers and suppliers. The upheaval likely will be temporary, he said.

Sears has adequate liquidity that it will pull through the current situation, said Matthew McGinley, managing director at International Strategy & Investment Group in New York.  “Even with Sears’ deteriorating financial condition, it is pretty unlikely that a vendor shouldn’t ship over the near term,” he said.

“We disagree with their action” and “point out that other factors are approving shipments to Sears,” Chris Brathwaite, a Sears spokesman, said.  “It’s important to note that Sears Holdings has more than adequate liquidity and ample resources at our disposal.”

Despite Brathwaite’s optimism, losing CIT’s financing could ultimately set off a chain reaction among other backers, where they also stop backing Sears.  Even though Sears has been making its payments on time, CIT has not been given some financial projections it requested, said Jack Hendler, president of Net Worth Solutions, a merger and acquisition advisory firm.  Other factors — those who provide loans or lines of credit to suppliers to tide them over until retailers make payments — are still approving orders, he said, but are also waiting for similar information and have been wary. “CIT decided not to wait and get their attention,” Hendler said.

According to analysts, Sears will survive in the short term.  Just the same, credit actions usually lead to more credit actions.  Try maxing out a credit card and see what happens to your credit.