Archive for the ‘Financing’ Category

CFTC Gives Tentative Green Light to Volcker Rule

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

The federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed limiting banks’  proprietary trading and hedge fund investments under the Dodd-Frank Act’s Volcker rule. The CFTC  3-2 vote makes it the last of five regulators to seek public comment on the proposal. This vote opens the measure to 60 days of public comment.  The rule, named for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, was included in Dodd-Frank to rein in risky trading at banks that benefit from federal deposit insurance and Fed discount window borrowing privileges.

The CFTC stayed mum when the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Securities and Exchange Commission and Office of Comptroller of the Currency released their joint proposal last year. The four agencies extended the comment period on their proposal until February 13 after financial-industry groups and lawmakers cited the complexity of the rule and the lack of coordination with the CFTC in requesting an extension.

The CFTC may soften Dodd-Frank a bit, granting Wall Street banks exceptions to rules requiring dealers to sensibly believe their derivatives are suitable for clients and in the best interests of endowments and other so-called special entities.  The rules “implement requirements for swap dealers and major swap participants to deal fairly with customers, provide balanced communications, and disclose material risks, conflicts of interest and material incentives before entering into a swap,” CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said.

Opponents say the CFTC proposal would cause “severe market disruption” by transforming the relationship between swap dealers and clients such as pensions and municipalities, according to Sifma and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc.. Under the final rule, dealers must disclose material risks and daily mid-market values of contracts to their clients. The CFTC may also complete rules designed to protect swap traders’ collateral that is used to reduce risk in trades. The rule insulates the collateral if the broker defaults, while allowing the customer funds to be pooled before a bankruptcy, according to a CFTC summary of the regulation.

Commissioner Scott O’Malia voted in favor or the rule, but said he did not want to give market participants “a misleading sense of comfort” that it would have prevented the loss of customer money at the brokerage giant.  “This rulemaking does not address MF Global,” O’Malia said. “This rulemaking would not have prevented a shortfall in the customer funds of the ranchers and farmers that transact daily in the futures market. Nor would it have expedited the transfer of positions and collateral belonging to such customers in the event of a collapse similar to that of MF Global.”

Commissioner Jill Sommers, who voted against the rule, criticized the rule for doing nothing to protect a futures commission merchant’s futures customers.  “Given recent events, we need to re-think this approach so we can provide adequate protections, in a comprehensive and coherent way, to swaps customers and to futures customers,” Sommers said. “I do not favor a piecemeal approach to customer protection.”

Is AirBnB Becoming the eBay of Vacation Rentals?

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

The global apartment sharing startup AirBnB has raised $112 million at a $1.3 billion valuation, confirming rumors about the fast-growing company which books rooms, apartments and houses in destinations from New York to San Francisco to Hawaii to London to Paris to Barcelona to Buenos Aires.  The round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (AH).  Reports are that Andreessen invested $60 million; another $40 million came from DST; $5 million from General Catalyst, and the rest from earlier investors and Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos.  The round is the second for the San Francisco-based company, bringing its total amount raised to date to $119.8 million.  The firm lets people travel to places more affordably by letting them book places to sleep from people around the world.  AirBnB plans to use the capital to fund its worldwide growth of private properties, often at amazingly low prices.

“Over the past three years, we’ve built a community marketplace for unique properties and brought it into the mainstream and into almost every country on the planet,” said Brian Chesky, co-founder and CEO of AirBnB.  “Today is a watershed moment – both for AirBnB as a company and for our community – that will enable us to touch new markets and expand our vision to make the world’s most interesting and inspiring places accessible to our users.”

At present, AirBnB has more than two million nights booked, more than double its rate of bookings just four months ago.  Its website receives more than 30 million hits per month and the number of AirBnB social connections has tripled to 54 million since the feature launched in May.  AirBnB has the capacity to rent properties by the night, owned by real people in 16,702 cities in 186 countries.

“We started realizing there is a growing trend of people who are doing this and making a living on Airbnb,” said Chesky, who founded the company in 2008 with Joe Gebbia and Nathan Blecharczyk.  “That’s what turned this into a movement and tipped it into the mainstream.”

AirBnB tries to prevent bad behavior on the part of the host or visitor by allowing people to post ratings and reviews of both hosts and travelers on their website, similar to eBay.  Users who connect to the site via Facebook can see if they and a potential guest or host have any mutual friends or a shared alma mater.  The site lets hosts ask for a deposit to cover damage or other problems.  To use the AirBnB website, visitors search for listings in the location they want to visit.  Once they have found the preferred location, they send a message to the host with any questions about the room or its location.  Next, users pay for their stay using a credit card or PayPal.  AirBnB holds the money until the day after the guests check in, assuring that the hosts are not cheated out of their cash.  The site profits by charging a transaction fee for each reservation.

When a young Toronto woman’s roommate moved out, she decided to rent out her extra bedrooms to travelers. The service has unexpectedly made her a bed-and-breakfast owner, bringing in approximately $1,800 a month, a nice cushion as she works on starting her own business.  “It pays my rent with a little left over,” she said.  “I’ve been able to upgrade my place, paint and get new furniture, which in turn means I can charge more.”

“The AirBnB movement has changed the way people experience the world,” Gebbia said.  “This investment will help us respond to increasing international demand by accelerating hiring, and the opening of offices around the world, in order to support our growing community on more local levels.”

On the Forbes website, Nicole Perlroth says that “Venture firms have been salivating to get a piece of AirBnB for months.  Union Square Ventures’ Fred Wilson famously referred to AirBnB as the one that got away. Other investors have been falling all over themselves trying to back AirBnB copycats for office space, tutoring, cars and even, experiences. The round, pricey as it may be for a three-year-old startup, is still coup for the VCs involved.  Andreessen-Horowitz initiated talks with AirBnB about a potential investment long before Jordan joined the firm last month.  (Andreessen-Horowitz’s newest partner Jeff) Jordan, a former eBay executive, says he was eager to lead the deal for AH because ‘(AirBnB) reminded me more of eBay in its early days than any other business I had seen.’”

Government Wants to Sell Foreclosed Properties in Bulk as Rentals

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

The Obama administration plans to work closely with federal regulators, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start a pilot program to sell government-owned foreclosures in bulk to investors as rentals, according to administration officials.

There currently are approximately 250,000 foreclosed properties on the books of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and millions more are expected.  Last year’s foreclosure processing delays created an enormous backlog of properties yet to be processed and are just now being restarted. One of the program’s initiatives is for the federal government to mitigate and manage new foreclosures.  Late-stage delinquencies still number close to two million, according to a report from Lending Processing Services (LPS).  Foreclosure starts are double foreclosure sales and “the trend toward fewer loans becoming delinquent, which dominated 2010 and the 1st quarter of 2011, appears to have halted,” according to LPS.

“I think there is a fair amount of money in the wings waiting to buy, investors doing cash raises to buy properties on a large scale,” said Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities. “But that means they have to build out a rental organization; it means they build out a management company, because if you’re accumulating a hundred homes in Dallas that’s very different than running a multifamily building.”

This is good advice. The recession began with housing, and is one of the main things holding back the recovery.   The most recent unemployment numbers — which showed that non-farm payrolls grew by 200,000 in December, and the jobless rate declined to 8.5 percent from 8.7 percent  — join other cautious signs of an improving economy, although the housing situation is worsening.  There’s still a serious risk it might put a halt to and not just delay expansion.

“Foreclosed homes are a complex problem. We need some creative thinking and new processes to solve the problem of so many distressed homeowners.  I would love to see the market handle it on its own but what makes sense for a single home is likely to destroy confidence in the housing market in aggregate,” said Jafer Hasnain, Partner at Lifeline Assets.  “Housing distress needs a Michael Dell to think about streamlining process details, and a Steve Jobs to make it elegant and human.”

House prices fell again in October, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index.  The pipeline of delinquencies and future foreclosures is full, which continues to dim the prospects of a quick recovery.  Efforts so far, such as the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), have helped, but less than hoped.

According to the Federal Reserve, there are no simple answers, but it makes several suggestions that Congress should examine.  One is to encourage conversions from owner-occupied to rental because that market has strengthened in recent months: Rents have risen and vacancies have declined.  A faster conversion rate would hold down rents and ease the pressure of unsold homes on house prices. Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Housing Administration account for about 50 percent of the inventory of foreclosed properties.  Many of these are viable as rentals.  A government-sponsored foreclosure-to-rental program to clear away regulatory hurdles would make a big difference.

A second suggestion is to encourage refinancings.  The administration tweaked the existing HAMP program in October, easing some of the earlier restrictions on eligibility.  Even more could be done, according to the Fed.  One possibility involves the fees that lenders pay to Fannie and Freddie for assuming new risks when loans to distressed borrowers are refinanced. These charges could be cut or eliminated, even though Congress just voted to increase them to help pay for the payroll-tax extension.

Some institutional investors have shown interest in bulk REO deals, but the plan has to incorporate ways to help facilitate financing.  That has been one of the biggest barriers to deals already in the works between hedge funds and the major banks.  There is plenty of cash to buy properties, but creating a management structure for the rentals is costly, and some investors are finding the math doesn’t add up to make it worth their while.

Larger investors want to get real scale in any government program, in the range of 50, 100, 500 properties per deal, or $1 billion-plus in assets. That’s why the government is looking to test several different approaches.  Fannie Mae did a $50 million sale in June, although that was on the small side. Officials are evaluating what larger asset sales would look like.

“We expect several pilots that will involve both local investors and institutional investors. The goal here is to reduce supply by converting foreclosed homes into rental units,” says Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim Securities. “Less supply – even less fear about a flood of foreclosed homes hitting the market – could stabilize (home) prices.”

Fallout From European Credit Downgrades Still Underway

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

European leaders will this week try to deliver new fiscal rules and cut Greece’s onerous debt burden.  All this in the wake of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Eurozone downgrades.

France was not the only Eurozone nation to feel the pain. Austria was cut to AA+ from AAA; Cyprus to BB+ from BBB; Italy to BBB+ from A; Malta to A- from A; Portugal to BB from BBB-; the Slovak Republic to A from A+; Slovenia to A+ from AA-; and Spain to A from AA-. S&P left the AAA ratings of Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands the same.

The European Central Bank (ECB) emerged unscathed.  The ratings agency said Eurozone monetary authorities “have been instrumental in averting a collapse of market confidence,” mostly thanks to the ECB launching new loan programs aimed at keeping the European banking system liquid while it works to resolve funding pressure brought on by the sovereign debt crisis.

The talks on Greece and budgets may serve as tougher tests of the tentative recovery in investor sentiment than S&P’s decision to cut the ratings of nine Eurozone nations, including France. If history repeats itself, fallout from the downgrades may be limited.  JPMorgan Chase research shows that 10-year yields for the nine sovereign nations that lost their AAA credit rating between 1998 and last year rose an average of two basis points the next week.

Policymakers worked doggedly to take back the initiative. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said S&P’s decision and criticism of “insufficient”  policy steps reinforced her view that leaders must try harder to resolve the two-year crisis. Germany is now alone in the Eurozone with a stable AAA credit rating. Reacting to Spain’s downgrade to A from AA-, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy pledged spending cuts and to clean up the banking system, as well as a “clear, firm and forceful” commitment to the Euro’s future. French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said the reduction of France’s rating was “disappointing,” yet expected

The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which is intended to fund rescue packages for the troubled nations of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, owes its AAA rating to guarantees from its sponsoring nations. “I was never of the opinion that the EFSF necessarily has to be AAA,” Merkel said.  Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Junker said the EFSF’s shareholders will look at how to maintain the top rating of the fund, which plans to sell up to 1.5 billion Euros in six-month bills starting this week. In the meantime, Merkel and other European leaders want to move speedily toward setting up its permanent successor, the European Stability Mechanism, this year — one year ahead of the original plan.

Greece’s Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said that a deal will be hammered out. “Some further reflection is necessary on how to put all the elements together,” he said. “So as you know, there is a little pause in these discussions. But I’m confident that they will continue and we will reach an agreement that is mutually acceptable in time.”

Standard & Poor’s downgraded nine of the 17 Eurozone countries and said it would decide before too long whether to cut the Eurozone’s bailout fund, the EFSF, from AAA.  “A one-notch downgrade for France was completely priced in, so no negative surprise here, and quite logical after the United States got downgraded,” said David Thebault, head of quantitative sales trading at Global Equities.

Thanks to the downgrades, fears of a Greek default also increased after talks between private creditors and the government over proposed voluntary write downs on Greek government bonds appeared near collapse.  Greece appears to be close to default on its sovereign debt, eclipsing the news that France and other Eurozone members lost their triple-A credit ratings.  “At the start of this year, (we) took the view that things in the Eurozone had to get worse before they got better. With the S&P downgrade of nine Eurozone countries and worries about the progress of Greek debt restructuring talks, things just did get worse,” wrote economists at HSBC.

Additionally there are implications for Eurozone banks from the sovereign downgrades.

“The direct impact of further sovereign and bank downgrades on institutions in peripheral.  nations is perhaps neither here nor there given that they are already effectively shut out of wholesale funding markets due to pre-existing investor concerns over the ability of governments in these countries to stand behind their banks,’ said Michael Symonds, credit analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets.

Writing in the Sydney Morning Herald, Ha-Joon Chang says that “Even the most rational Europeans must now feel that Friday the 13th is an unlucky day after all.  On that day last week, the Greek debt restructuring negotiation broke down, with many bondholders refusing to join the voluntary 50 per cent ‘haircut’  – that is, debt write off – scheme, agreed to last summer. While the negotiations may resume, this has dramatically increased the chance of disorderly Greek default.  The Eurozone countries criticize S&P and other ratings agencies for unjustly downgrading their economies. France is particularly upset that it was downgraded while Britain has kept its AAA status, hinting at an Anglo-American conspiracy against France. But this does not wash, as one of the big three, Fitch Ratings, is 80 per cent owned by a French company.”

Hungary’s Debt Downgraded to Junk

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012

Yet another European nation – and one not in the Eurozone – is facing a financial crisis now that Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has downgraded its credit rating to junk status. The nation is Hungary, whose status was changed as a result of concerns about proposed policy changes regarding the country’s central bank.  S&P cut its rating on Hungary’s debt to the non-investment grade of BB+ and warned that there could be additional adjustments.  Its negative outlook on the Hungarian front means there is at least a 33 percent likelihood of another downgrade over the next year if Hungary’s fiscal performance worsens.

The lower rating could mean that Hungary has more difficulty borrowing, and may have to pay higher rates on its debt.  Moody’s Investor Service, a rival credit-ratings agency, had already reduced Hungary’s rating to junk status in late November.  According to S&P, policy changes related to Hungary’s central bank will curtail its independence; these changes by necessity complicate the scene for investors.  They’re likely to negatively impact investment and fiscal planning, which will weigh on Hungary’s medium-term growth prospects.  “The downgrade reflects our opinion that the predictability and credibility of Hungary’s policy framework continues to weaken,” S&P said.

Not surprisingly, the European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned about Hungary’s draft law that it says would undermine the independence of the country’s central bank. The government recently introduced proposals to merge Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) with the Financial Supervisory Authority, name a new president who will outrank the current central bank governor and increase the number of members of the governing council.  All of this would be “to the detriment of central bank independence,” the ECB said.  “In particular, by appointing a new president with authority over the Governor of the MNB, who would become the vice-president of the new institution, the personal independence of the MNB’s Governor would be impaired and Article 14.2 of the Statute of the European System of Central Banks concerning the possible reasons for dismissing the Governor of a national central bank would be breached,” the ECB said.  “The Governing Council of the ECB has requested the Hungarian authorities to bring their consultation practice into line with the requirements of European Union law and to respect the obligation to consult the ECB.  Three major revisions of the central bank law in 18 months are incompatible with the principle of legal certainty.”

The independence of the central banks in European nations is enshrined in European Union treaties. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants to use his two-thirds majority in parliament to push through changes in the make-up of the decision-making entities of the MNB, with whom he has frequently disagreed over policy.

According to Business Week, “Hungary will probably overshoot its budget-deficit target next year, the central bank said.  The shortfall may be 3.7 percent of gross domestic product, compared with the government’s 2.5 percent goal, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank said.  The gap may be reduced to 2.6 percent with the ‘complete cancellation’ of budget reserves and assuming no unexpected spending and no shortfall in revenue in 2012.  A decline in risk premium may allow keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at seven percent, the highest in the European Union, or its ‘cautious reduction’, the central bank said, citing the rate-setting Monetary Council.  The rate may have to be ‘permanently’ higher if the pace of disinflation is slower than the bank’s forecast.”

New Housing Market Showing Some Strength

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

Confidence in American homebuilders rose in December for the third consecutive month, a sign that the housing market is finally stabilizing.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) of builder confidence climbed to 21 — the highest level since May 2010 — from a revised 19 in November.   Economists had projected an index of 20, according to a Bloomberg News survey.  Readings below 50 mean the majority of respondents believe that conditions are poor.

Mortgage rates near record lows are attracting prospective homebuyers.  At the same time, a new wave of foreclosures means a sustained housing recovery could take years.  “We’re just seeing some incremental improvement,” John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston, said.  “It’s too early to say that the worst is over.  It’s too early to say that we’re pulling ourselves out of the morass of housing.”

Builders in the South had the biggest increase, with the index jumping four points to 25 this month.  The West reported a gain to 16 from 15, while the Midwest held steady at 24.  Confidence in the Northeast fell to 15 from 16.

“This is the first time that builder confidence has improved for three consecutive months since mid-2009, which signifies a legitimate though slowly emerging upward trend,” NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said.  “While large inventories of foreclosed properties continue to plague the most distressed markets and consumer worries about job security and the challenges of selling an existing home remain significant factors, builders are reporting more inquiries and more interest among potential buyers than they have seen in previous months.”

Low-ball appraisals are spoiling some deals, even after contracts have been signed.  As a result, some buyers are waiting to buy a new house because they can’t sell their home.  Those positioned to purchase are benefiting from lower prices and rates.  30-year fixed mortgages are 3.94 percent — a record low.  So far, those factors have not boosted new home sales.

The seasonally adjusted index, which parallels closely with single-family housing starts, is designed so that readings over 50 are considered “good.”  This hasn’t been the case since April 2006.

According to NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, “While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets.”

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes registered a third consecutive month of improvement in December.  The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points in the latest month to 22, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months edged up one point to 26.  The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers gained three points and is now at 18, which is its highest level since May of 2008.

Bill Gates, Sr.: The Rich Must Pay More Taxes

Monday, December 19th, 2011

Bill Gates, Sr., a retired attorney in Washington state, supports a ballot initiative that would require the state’s highest earners — including himself and his son — to pay an income tax.  Currently, the state does not collect personal income taxes.

The father of billionaire Microsoft founder Bill Gates, Jr., believes that the poor pay too much tax, and that the rich don’t pay enough.  Washington’s school system, which is a catalyst for future economic growth in the high-tech state, suffers from too little funding because the wealthy aren’t paying their fair share, according to Gates.  His 1098 initiative — an income tax on adjusted earnings that exceed $400,000 a year per couple or $200,000 for an individual — is drawing protest from Washington business leaders, as well as anti-tax groups.

Initiative 1098 would give tax credits to approximately 80 percent of Washington-based businesses and slash the state share of property taxes by 20 percent for businesses and homeowners.  According to critics, the legislation would harm the economy by taxing the earnings of people who own the businesses — money that would be used to put people back to work.  The opposition’s Defeat 1098 campaign believes that an income tax on 38,400 of the state’s highest earners would take away vital competitive advantages and drive away entrepreneurs.  Even Governor Chris Gregoire’s Commerce Department has publicized Washington’s lack of an income tax in statements about the state’s business climate.

Gates considers Washington state’s tax system to be “dramatically regressive”, something that was proved in 2002 when he led a commission created by the Legislature to study the state tax system.  The commission recommended replacing the sales tax or property tax with an income tax that would rebalance the load.  Gates cited data gathered by the national Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy that show Washington’s poorest 20 percent pay 17 percent of their income in sales, property and other taxes.  By contrast, the wealthiest one percent pays less than four percent.

The initiative would impose a state income tax on individuals earning more than $200,000 and couples earning upwards of $400,000.  In other words, single people would pay a five percent tax on income over $200,000 and nine percent tax if they earn more than $500,000.  Couples would pay five percent over $400,000 and nine percent if they earn a combined income that exceeds $1 million.

“It’s not a matter of picking on someone,” Gates said.  “It’s a matter of correcting to some extent a bad historic situation and arguing — I think absolutely persuasively — that this is a proper source for a serious financial shortfall in our operations, namely the public education system.”

Gates’ proposal also has met opposition from Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, and Jeff Bezos, President of Amazon.com, both of whom donated $100,000 to anti-tax groups.

Another voice of opposition is Stephen Moore, who wrote in the Wall Street Journal, “I wish I had a dollar for every time a wealthy liberal has declared he thinks he should pay more taxes. That list includes Warren Buffett, George Soros, Bill Gates Sr., Mark Zuckerberg and even Barack Obama, who now says that not only should rich people like him pay more taxes, they want to pay more.”

Gates is joined by Berkshire-Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett in calling for higher taxes on the wealthy.  President Obama supports “the Buffett Rule”, a guiding principle to ensure that the rich pay as large a percentage of their income as the middle class.  Some millionaires insist that Buffett doesn’t speak for them.  “There is more of a difference between my financial position as a multi-millionaire and Buffett’s than there is between mine and a guy that makes minimum wage,” one CNN Money reader said.  “Why am I grouped with him and why does he feel he can speak for me?”

Just 24 percent of millionaires said higher taxes on large incomes is the optimal solution, according to a survey from Spectrem Group, a research firm specializing in the finances of affluent Americans.  The largest group of millionaires, 44 percent, believe that a flat-rate tax across all income brackets is the fairest system.

Banks Getting Healthier

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Bank earnings rose to their highest level in more than four years, while the number of troubled banks declined for the second consecutive quarter.  The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) said the banking industry earned $35.3 billion in the 3rd quarter, an increase from the $23.8 billion reported in the same timeframe last year.  More than 60 percent of banks reported improved earnings.  According to the FDIC, there currently are 844 banks on its confidential “problem”, or roughly 11.5 percent of all federally insured banks.  That was down from 865 between April and June, and was first quarter in five years to show a decline.

“After three years of shrinking loan portfolios, any loan growth is positive news for the industry and the economy,” said Martin Gruenberg, FDIC’s acting chairman.  Lending has not yet reached healthy levels.  So far in 2011, 90 banks have failed.  That’s a significant improvement over the 157 banks that were shuttered last year — the most for one year since the darkest days of the 1992 savings and loan crisis — and the 140 in 2009.

The FDIC’s so-called problem bank list consists of the institutions considered most likely to fail, though few actually are shuttered.  Only 26 of the nation’s 7,436 banks failed in the 3rd quarter, 15 fewer than the same period of 2010.  “The trend has been improving, but the current number of failures and problem institutions remains high by historical standards,” Gruenberg said.

Banks whose assets exceed $10 billion drove of the earnings growth. They account for just 1.4 percent of all banks but accounted for about $29.8 billion of the industry’s earnings in the 3rd quarter.  Those are the biggest banks, such as Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.  The majority of these banks have recovered with help from federal bailout money and record-low borrowing rates.

Writing on MarketWatch, Ronald D. Orol says that “It is unclear whether the reduction in troubled banks on the list is a result of institutional failures or improvements.  In the 3rd quarter there were 26 bank failures and 21 banks dropped off the problem bank list.  In the 2nd quarter there were 22 bank failures and 23 banks came off the problem bank list.  It is possible that a bank fails so fast that it is never on the problem list.  FDIC-insured institutions posted net income of $35.3 billion in the 3rd quarter, an increase of $11.5 billion, or 48 percent, compared to a year earlier.  The profits were at the highest level since the 2nd quarter of 2007, the FDIC said.  However, Martin Gruenberg said that even though the industry is generally profitable, the recovery is ‘by no means’ complete.  He noted that a central concern for the agency is whether banks can generate income from a greater demand for loans, something that is still lacking.  He said that the industry has seen income gains generated from improvements in credit quality and the ability to reduce loss provisions but that to really generate income and revenue, funding for loans is going to have to expand and that ‘depends on the overall economy.’  The key issue is going to be whether there can be a pick up in economic activity and generate demand for loans.  Ongoing distress in real-estate markets and slow growth in jobs and incomes still pose a threat to bank credit quality.”

The majority of banks that have struggled or failed have been small or regional institutions.  They rely a lot on commercial property and development loans, sectors that have lost a lot of money.  As companies closed during the recession, they vacated shopping malls and office buildings financed by those loans.  Nevertheless, large banks are less profitable than they were before the financial crisis hit in the fall of 2008, leading to some sizable layoffs.  Some credit rating agencies have been warning that the European debt crisis could hit the largest American banks.  Financial companies’ stocks have been especially beat up in the stock market’s volatility in recent months.

“We continue to see income growth that reflects improving asset quality and lower loss provisions,” Gruenberg said.  “U.S. banks have come a long way from the depths of the financial crisis.  Bank balance sheets are strong in a number of ways, and the industry is generally profitable, but the recovery is by no means complete.”  The banking industry also saw a 0.5 percent rise in net operating revenue compared with 2010, thanks in part to a $3.2 billion — or 5.8 percent — increase in non-interest income, the first year-over-year increase in nearly two years.  “Absent these unrealized gains, net operating revenue would have posted a year-over-year decline for a third consecutive quarter,” Gruenberg concluded.

The Fed’s Secret Bank Loans Revealed

Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

In a stunning revelation, Bloomberg has obtained 29,000 pages of Federal Reserve documents detailing the largest bailout in American history.  According to an article that will appear in the January issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine, the “Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on December 5, 2008, their single neediest day.  Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy.  And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates.”

The $7.77 trillion that the central bank made available stunned even Gary H. Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009.  According to Stern, he “wasn’t aware of the magnitude.”  It overshadows the Treasury Department’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program.  When you add up guarantees and lending limits, it becomes clear that the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March, 2009 to rescuing the financial system. That is more than half the value of the U.S. GDP that year.  “TARP at least had some strings attached,” said Representative Brad Miller (D-NC), a member of the House Financial Services Committee.  “With the Fed programs, there was nothing.”

According to Bloomberg’s editors, “Even as they were tapping the Fed for emergency loans at rates as low as 0.01 percent, the banks that were the biggest beneficiaries of the program were assuring investors that their firms were healthy.  Moreover, these banks used money they had received in the bailout to lobby Congress against reforms aimed at preventing the next collapse.  By keeping the details of its activities under wraps, the Fed deprived lawmakers of the essential information they needed to draft those rules. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, for example, was debated and passed by Congress in 2010 without a full understanding of how deeply the banks had depended on the Fed for survival.  Similarly, lawmakers approved the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to rescue the banks without knowing the details of the far larger bailout being run by the Fed.

“The central bank justified its approach by saying that disclosing the information would have signaled to the markets that the financial institutions that received help were in trouble.  That, in turn, would make needy institutions reluctant to use the Fed as a lender of last resort in the next crisis.  Fed officials argue, with some justification, that the program helped avert a much bigger economic cataclysm and that all the loans have now been repaid.”

Derek Thompson, a senior editor at The Atlantic, argues that the Fed’s secret bailout is a sign that it was doing its job.  According to Thompson, “First, you can be furious that the Federal Reserve ‘committed’ $7.7 trillion — a sum of money equal to half of the U.S. economy — to save the financial system.  I understand the shock, but we were at the precipice of catastrophe and that money wasn’t ‘spent’ so much as it was put at risk and subsequently recouped.  The economy has struggled in the three years since, but we avoided meltdown.  The trillions worked.

“Second, you can be furious that the banks made a profit off of their own mistakes — but $13 billion is a small price to pay for staving off Armageddon.  Third, you can be furious that the Federal Reserve went to court to keep this information out of the hands of journalists.  There, I’d agree.  It’s Congress’s job (not the Federal Reserve’s job) to pass laws that govern the banking sector, but Congress needs information to make good decisions about regulating banks and it’s disappointing that the Federal Reserve withheld details about its bailouts while the commission and the Dodd-Frank debate were ongoing.  Fourth, you can be furious that our central bank basically did the right thing when it had to, and its counterpart in Europe won’t — at the risk of a continental meltdown.”

Times’ Massimo Calabresi agrees. According to Calabresi, “But the Fed saved the world economy through all this lending without losing a penny in the process.  And after its initial heavy breathing, the article does give the Fed an opportunity to explain itself.  ‘Supporting financial-market stability in times of extreme stress is a core function of central banks,’ said William B. English, director of the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs.  “Our lending programs served to prevent a collapse of the financial system and to keep credit flowing to American families and businesses.’  In other words, lending money to banks in a crisis is the whole point of the Fed:  saving the world economy by flooding the system with money when it is about to freeze up is exactly what the central bank was created to do.”

The Fed has been lending money to banks since just after it was established in 1913. By the end of 2008, the Fed had created or expanded 11 lending facilities catering to financial firms that were unable to obtain short-term loans from their usual sources.  “Supporting financial-market stability in times of extreme market stress is a core function of central banks,” said William English, director of the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs.  “Our lending programs served to prevent a collapse of the financial system and to keep credit flowing to American families and businesses.”

 

Home Delinquencies Fall; Foreclosures Rise

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

Fewer borrowers currently are delinquent on their home loans, a Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) report shows.  Curiously, new foreclosures are rising in states like California.  This is evidence that the nation still must endure significant pain before the housing crisis finally comes to an end.  According to some analysts, the nation is only halfway through the wrenching grip of the foreclosure epidemic.  That’s reflected in the housing market, where sales and prices continue to sag despite record low interest rates.  Five years after the crisis began, 7.99 percent of all mortgages were behind by at least one payment in the 3rd quarter but not yet in foreclosure.  Nevertheless, that’s down by nearly half a percentage point from the 2nd quarter and more than one percent when compared with last year.

The percentage of American mortgages that were somewhere in the foreclosure process at the end of the 3rd quarter was 4.43 percent, a slight increase over last year.  The rate of homes in foreclosure was highest in the East and Midwest that route residential repossessions through the courts, with Florida at more than 14 percent and New Jersey at eight percent.

Rather surprisingly, new foreclosures rose to 1.08 percent of all loans from 0.96 percent in the prior three months, according to the MBA. The rate had been declining since the 3rd quarter of 2010, when regulators began investigating robo-signing.  Some of the nation’s largest banks temporarily halted foreclosures while they addressed claims of flaws in their court documents.  The moratoriums clogged the entire foreclosure pipeline as banks investigated their procedures, said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight.  “Banks are starting to speed up the process now that they’ve cleaned up their paperwork,” Newport said.  “We’re seeing the backlog begin to move.”

Unfortunately, the improvement may be short lived.  For the 4th quarter, the pace probably will slow to 2.3 percent, according to the median estimate among 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.  The pace likely will slow to two percent in the first three months of 2012, according to the estimates.  “While the delinquency picture changed for the better in the 3rd quarter, the foreclosure data indicated that we are not out of the woods yet and that the issues continue to vary by geography,” Michael Fratantoni, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s vice president of research and economics, said.

“That’s really just reflecting the modest improvement we’ve seen in the economy broadly and the job market in particular,” Fratantoni said. “Job growth is not what we want it to be, but it’s been good enough to keep the unemployment rate at least level and that’s been beneficial here with fewer people falling behind.”

“While foreclosure activity in September and the 3rd quarter continued to register well below levels from a year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up,” said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.  “Third quarter foreclosure activity increased marginally from the previous quarter, breaking a trend of three consecutive quarterly decreases that started in the fourth quarter of 2010,” according to Saccacio.  “This marginal increase in overall foreclosure activity was fueled by a 14 percent jump in new default notices, indicating that lenders are cautiously throwing more wood into the foreclosure fireplace after spending months trying to clear the chimney of sloppily filed foreclosures.”

Foreclosure were filed on 214,855 U.S. properties in September, a six percent decrease from August and a 38 percent decrease when compared with September of 2010.  September marked the 12th consecutive month where foreclosure activity decreased on a year-over-year basis.

A report issued by the Center for Responsible Lending found that 6.4 percent of mortgages created between 2004 and 2008 ended in foreclosure.  Another 8.3 percent of mortgages are at “immediate, serious risk.”  According to Fratantoni, “Given the pace of foreclosure sales — about one million foreclosure sales a year — it’s a three- or four-year process to get it back to a more typical level of foreclosed properties.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity fell to 77.3 percent of total applications from 78.6 percent the previous week.  The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.1 percent from 5.8 percent of all applications.  In October, 50.6 percent of refinancing applications opted for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 28.8 percent opted for 15-year fixed loans and six percent went with ARMs.  In terms of applications for home purchase mortgages, 85.5 percent were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 6.9 percent for 15-year fixed loans and 5.9 percent for ARMs, the lowest share of that vehicle for purchases since January.