Posts Tagged ‘Middle East’

Vive la France!!!

Monday, August 8th, 2011

The popular image of French men and women spending their time in sidewalk cafes sipping aperitifs, smoking Gauloises and watching the world go by belies the fact that the nation’s residents work the least amount of hours in the world, yet are among the most productiveAccording to a recent UBS survey, people globally work an average of 1,902 hours annually.  The work day is even longer for people in Asian and Middle Eastern cities.  By contrast, residents of Paris and Lyon have the shortest workday at 1,582 and 1,594 hours annually, respectively.

In 2010, France’s GDP totaled $2.113 trillion; that represented a 1.6 percent growth rate and a GDP per capita of $38,016.  The French achieve their high standard of living while working 16 percent fewer hours than the average person, and nearly 25 percent less than their Asian peers.  Visit France and you’ll see that their standard of living is probably significantly higher than the GDP numbers indicate.  If you divide France’s GDP per capita by actual hours worked, you’d probably learn that the French are achieving some of the highest returns on work-hours invested.

Because healthcare and education are virtually free, the French have the ability to put more emphasis on family and pleasure rather than making a profit.  Additionally, the French have 11 national holidays every year and many workers take extra time off if those holidays occur on a Tuesday or Thursday.  Then there’s France’s legendary vacation time – which can range from five to eight weeks a year.  Despite this and with an unemployment rate of 9.5 percent as of May 2011, France remains the world’s fifth largest economy.  And the French achieve all that with a 35-hour workweek, which was adopted in 1998 in an effort to create more jobs for the unemployed.  The early retirement age is 62, although most French opt to retire at 65.

France scores among the top 10 in International Living magazine’s “Best Quality of Life” survey.  According to the article on the results of the 2011 survey, “Still, it can be useful to step back and see how each nation fares relative to others when we do consider these categories.  To come out ahead, a country must be an all-around good pick, not just a standout in one area or two. And that explains why the top finishers are developed nations like the U.S. and the rest of our top 10 — New Zealand, Malta, France, Monaco, Belgium, Japan, United Kingdom, Austria, and Germany.  None is among the most affordable nations on the planet.  But they all offer other benefits.  These nations are home to plenty of expats who are thrilled with life in their chosen havens.”

Writing on Truthout.com, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says that “It’s true that French GDP per capita (output divided by the number of people in the nation), for example, is only about three-quarters of the American level, when adjusted for purchasing power.  But when you look closely at that number, the story is certainly more complex than many people think.  Let’s look at data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States — at data on France in particular, since that’s the country Americans have strong feelings about, right?  I’m going to focus on the data from 2008, not 2009.  In 2009, businesses in the United States laid off a lot of workers, while European firms did not.  That produced a divergence in productivity that had more to do with short-run business cycle events than with fundamental trends.  Data from 2008 allows for a better sense of the underlying differences.  GDP, per capita, per person, France produces 73 percent of what the United States produces in a year.  GDP per hour worked: A French worker produces about 99 percent of what an American worker produces in one hour.  Number of workers: For every 100 workers in the United States, France has about 84 workers.  Hours per worker: For every 100 hours an American works, a French person works about 88.  So French workers are roughly as productive as American workers.”

At present, France is the fastest growing economy in the European Union.  According to Ken Hurst of Works Management, “New productivity data published today (4 February) highlights a further rise in labor productivity across the European Union, thereby extending the current period of improvement to 21 months.  Furthermore, the pace of increase accelerated since December to a five-month high and put France in first place in the growth league.  Broken down by nation, the latest data highlighted gains across the EU’s four largest economies, the strongest of which was recorded in France – where output per employee rose at the strongest pace since last July.  Marked gains were recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors.”

High Gas Prices Sending Americans to Their Computers to Shop

Tuesday, May 17th, 2011

Online shopping grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in April as soaring fuel prices sent Americans to their computers instead of the malls to shop on the internet instead, according to MasterCard Advisors.  Consumers spent $13.8 billion online in April, a 19.2 per cent increase over the same month of 2010, according to the SpendingPulse survey, which is based on spending using MasterCard credit cards and estimates of other forms of payment.  Mike Berry, MasterCard Advisors’ director of industry research, said “We’ve started to see demand distortion, with people pumping fewer gallons and driving less.”  Amazon.com reported sales had increased as much as 45 percent, while eBay reported a 10 percent rise.

In general, April sales trends are mixed, with some sectors showing continued year-over-year growth.  Others are flat or even negative, according to the report, which tracks sales across all payment methods.  A late Easter, which shifted some sales from March into April, may skew interpretations, although data suggests that high gasoline prices are impacting consumer behavior.  April marked the sixth straight month of double-digit growth in online shopping, according to Berry.  Online shopping has risen from 0.6 percent of all retail spending at the end of 1999 to 4.3 percent in the 4th quarter of last year, according to Census Bureau statistics.

We can expect consumers to make fewer shopping trips,  especially on weekends, and this may contribute to an ever stronger growth for e-commerce,” says Michael McNamara, vice president, research and analysis for SpendingPulse.  Several retail sectors saw online sale increases during April.  For example, online shoe sales rose 20 percent compared with 2010.  Women’s clothing rose by 15 percent, the second consecutive month to record that large an increase.  By comparison, clothing sales in actual stores rose 10.4 percent.  Consumer electronics purchased online grew 9.1 percent, for the eighth consecutive month of growth.  Electronics and appliance sales, including brick and mortar purchases, declined 1.8 percent in April.

Referring to continually rising gas prices, McNamara said,  “Our experience over the past several years suggests that this can have a variety of repercussions for retail.  First, we can expect consumers to make fewer shopping trips, especially on weekends, and this may contribute to an ever stronger growth for e-commerce.  Fewer miles driven also reduces demand for auto parts and services.  Finally, casual dining restaurants can be negatively impacted.”

Surprisingly demand also hasn’t yet been hurt by the sharp rise in gasoline prices brought on by the uprisings across the Middle East, according to Berry.  Still, he warns the trend bears watching as he expects that spending levels are only just starting to see the impact of soaring gas prices.  “We haven’t reached that point yet, but it is something to keep an eye on,” he said.

“The Terminator” Wants to Create Green Solutions

Tuesday, March 15th, 2011

Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger recently called for the end of false debate over climate science, saying that we should not assume that China will create green technologies that Americans can adopt and to admit that global warming will impact the globe in coming years. In a speech at the APRA-E Energy Innovation Summit in Washington, D.C.,  Schwarzenegger said that changing to a green economy, fixing the environment and ending the political stalemate over carbon legislation are well within the power of today’s technology.

“We want a new era of energy independence, a new era of green technology and green jobs, a new era of better health from a cleaner environment, and a new era of American inventiveness,” Schwarzenegger said.

Schwarzenegger connected the green economy of the future to the current unrest in the Mideast. He said that the overthrow of foreign dictators seemed impossible a month ago but now seems inevitable.  At the same time, he believes that defeatism about the ability of a green revolution to transform America will soon look incongruous.  The former California governor also pointed to the recent volatility in oil prices resulting from upheaval in the Middle Eastern as a clear example of why the United States needs to wean itself off foreign oil.  “Why should a dried-up desert country with a crazy dictator like Libya play havoc with America’s energy future?” Schwarzenegger asked.

Schwarzenegger pointed out that California offers a model for tech companies that can help vitalize the economy and cut greenhouse gases, while helping the country reduce its imports of oil. As governor, he signed a global-warming law that mandates reductions in greenhouse gases; California also has a renewable-energy mandate that has resulted in almost 20 percent of electricity coming from renewable sources.

He lamented the national discussion on clean energy, saying too much of it is stuck in the debate over the science of global warming.  Instead, people should focus on immediate benefits from investing in green technologies, including improved health, economic growth, consumer savings from efficiency, and reduced dependence on foreign oil.

“Think about what it means that in the Central Valley of California, one in six children has to walk around with an inhaler.  I know we can change the debate and win the debate,” he said.  “We can’t talk about global warming, because people can’t relate to that.”  Instead of creating “forward-looking policies” for energy use, elected officials are debating the science of global warming.  “There is a disconnect between what is happening and what is being debated,” Schwarzenegger concluded.

Foreign Investors Blocked From Investing in U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

Foreign investors blocked from investing in U.S. by taxes. Although foreign investment in United States commercial real estate doubled in the 1st half of 2010 compared with 2009, activity is still sluggish, thanks to the slow economy and a lack of trophy properties offered for sale.  Currently, the United Kingdom is the hottest international destination for investment, according to Jones Lang LaSalle research.  So far this year, $7 billion of foreign money has been invested in British properties, compared with just $4.3 billion in U.S. real estate.

“The rise in cross-border transaction volume also shows a real estate return in the major markets, and an encouraging 176 percent increase year over year in the United States, which  had the greatest fall in cross-border investment during the downturn,” said Steve Collins, managing director, Americas, for Jones Lang LaSalle’s International Capital Group.  “Demand is especially robust for well-leased, core-style product in gateway markets such as New York and Washington, D.C., whereas demand remains much weaker for the non-gateway cities markets.”

Another obstacle to foreign ownership of American real estate is the 1986 Foreign Investment in Real Estate Property Tax Act (FIRPTA), which gives the government the ability to tax gains earned when an overseas company sells a property.  Opponents say that law blocks the flow of foreign capital into the United States; an attempt to overhaul FIRPTA this summer failed in Congress.  Representative Joseph Crowley (D-NY) has introduced legislation that will increase the percentage of foreign ownership in publicly traded REITs from five to 10 percent before proceeds are taxed under FIRPTA.  Although the legislation passed the House by a wide margin, the Senate has not yet acted on it.

“It’s certainly not what we hoped for.  It’s really just a start,” said Jim Fetgatter, CEO of the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE), “It may encourage a little foreign investment, but it’s only going to impact foreign investors who are already investing in REITs, allow them to take a bigger piece of a company.  But there are a lot of countries in the Middle East and Germany that don’t invest in REITs.  They’re direct investors and the new law won’t have any impact on them.”

Middle East Investors See Good Deals Globally

Thursday, February 4th, 2010

Middle East investors shopping in Europe and the Far East.Capital is flowing out of the Middle East and being invested in real estate across the globe, according to Nicholas Maclean, Managing Director, CB Richard Ellis, Middle East. “The outflow of capital from the Middle East to be invested into real estate properties worldwide has been higher than the influx of global capital into real estate properties in the Middle East.  The UAE, in particular, has been looking to diversify its investments and part of the reason has been the lack of transparency within this region.”

Europe and the Far East have received the lion’s share of Middle East investment, with India and China perceived as strong growth markets.  Additionally, United Arab Emirates capital is being infused into Abu Dhabi’s office and hospitality sectors.  “Capital spent as FDI into real estate within the Gulf Cooperation Council represents only 11 percent of the total.  Cross-border activity in the world has exceeded 50 percent and so we have a great opportunity to be the recipient of more investment,” Maclean said.

In terms of where the Middle East is placing its investment dollars globally, “London, Paris and Germany have been the largest recipients in Europe while Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia saw the largest inflows in the regions in the Far East.  Knowledge and liquidity have been the key driving forces for the Middle East investors transferring capital to these areas.  Institutional investors from the Middle East are investing in commercial developments in these markets while individual investors are looking at residential properties in the UK,” Maclean said.

To learn more about the Middle East and its real estate market, listen to Rochdi Younsi, director in the Middle East and Africa practice of Eurasia Group, analyze the major players in real estate and the new investment opportunities in the Middle East.

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Rochdi Younsi: Doing Business in the Middle East

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

With 28 million people and a $376 billion economy, Saudi Arabia provides its citizens with subsidized goods, services, healthcare, housing and education to assure a stable political system and long-term allegiance to the House of Saud, according to Rochdi Younsi, director in the Middle East and Africa practice at the Eurasia Group.  An expert on the Gulf Cooperation Council, Younsi has been featured on CBS’ “60 Minutes” and on National Public Radio.

viewThanks to its oil revenues, Saudi Arabia is building new cities such as the $26 billion King Abdullah Economic City, and hiring American contractors and consultants to construct this sustainable metropolis on the Red Sea.  The vision: to create modern cities in which various major corporations will be headquartered.  The payoff:  approximately 1,000,000 new jobs for Saudi nationals.

Cash-rich Kuwait, which recently invested $800 million buying the Chrysler Building, has a $138 billion economy and $200 billion in reserves.  According to Younsi, Kuwait is fascinating because it depends heavily on oil production and export to finance its Kuwait Investment Authority, which was established in the 1950s.  The nation’s democratic system of government can be both an impediment and an advantage because it includes a parliament with real legislative powers and the ability to redesign the emirate’s economic strategy – which can mean gridlock.

Dubai, by contrast, has a $37 billion economy and is $100 billion in debt, following its building boom to establish itself as the Middle East’s financial hub.  Younsi says it is important to not think of Dubai as an independent nation because it is one of seven emirates comprising the United Arab Emirates.  Dubai lacks energy resources and is dependent on revenues it receives from the larger and wealthier Abu Dhabi, which is rich in oil and gas.

Eurasia Group is the world’s leading political risk and consulting firm that helps corporations make informed business decisions in countries around the world.

 
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The Rich Still Are Different

Thursday, September 3rd, 2009

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The wealth of the world’s high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) declined by nearly one fifth last year to $33 trillion, according to the 2009 World Wealth Report from Merrill Lynch and Capgemini.  A HNWI has at least $1 million of assets besides a primary residence, its contents and collectible items.  In 2008, the number of HNWIs fell to 8.6 million, or slightly more than 0.1 percent of the world’s population.

Their wealth declined by more than 20 percent in North America, Europe and Asia, and by a bit less in Africa and the Middle East.  Latin America’s rich were the least affected: they lost just six percent of their wealth, and the number of HNWIs there fell by less than one percent.  In North America, which had a large proportion of people just above the $1 million threshold, the ranks slimmed by 19 percent.

An interesting aside:  That $33 trillion is almost half of the $70 trillion that constitutes the subset of global savings known as fixed-income securities – or, all the money in the world.

Social Media Shines a Bright Light on Iranian Revolution

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

Generally, political events, unless they affect our industry, are beyond the purview of the AlterNow blog.  However, the news from the Middle East gives us pause because our country has become, quite remarkably, an actor in one of the most stirring displays of courage and political defiance in recent memory.  We may not fully realize it yet but the Green Revolution that’s taking place in Iran, beyond its political implications, is a singular event because it may be the moment of arrival for citizen journalism.traiill

Reading the tweets  from the streets of Tehran as protestors rail against an election that was probably rigged and the intractability of the theocracy of the mullahs is like entering an entirely new category of reporting.  It goes beyond the ground-level observations and interviews of even the finest reportage to deliver something close to a longitudinal study of mass consciousness.  Tweet after tweet renders a population that’s beaten, water hosed, tear gassed and doused in chemicals but also one that’s buoyed by rumors and made intrepid by the pain of others and the injustice of a repressive system.  It’s heartbreaking and stirring.  What’s also worth considering is that technology hatched in America – micro blogging – has delivered to this movement the power of instant expression and instant appeal to the court of world opinion.

Consider what this means.  In 1936, General Franco was able to silence Frederico Garcia Lorca and half a million Spanish Republicans during the Spanish Civil War by cutting off communication and having them executed.  From 1973 to 1990, Augusto Pinochet was able to blot out more than 1,000 Chileans by simple fiat, consigning them to a blind spot in the country’s collective memory.  No more.  The Iranians in the streets who are recording the remarkable events will not be “disappeared” by their council of dictators.  For the Iranian revolutionaries, social media has preserved that most sacred of human agencies — their voice and its claim on the truth.