Posts Tagged ‘Pew Research Center’

Newspapers Lack Business Model for Digital Presence

Wednesday, April 11th, 2012

A new report from the Pew Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ) tells a gloomy story. Its main point is that the search for a new business model to revive the newspaper industry is making extremely halting progress.  The most startling revelation is that, on average, for every dollar newspapers earn in digital advertising revenue, they lose $7 in print ad revenue.  This data is based on the PEJ’s survey of six companies that own 121 newspapers, which shared private data about some of their papers’ financial performances.

“Executives at the 13 companies involved in this report confirmed that closing the revenue gap remains an uphill and existential struggle,” said Tom Rosenstiel, the project’s director.  “The most optimistic projections saw digital gains overcoming print losses within a few years; the most pessimistic held that it would never occur.  A number of executives said they did not know when it might happen.  Of the 38 papers that provided detailed data about their operations, not all were achieving growth in digital revenue.  Seven of those studied suffered declines for the last year for which they had full data.  One stayed the same year to year.”

According to Rosenstiel “Some of those we talked to seem frustrated and even uncertain about how to proceed. But we also found signs that, if you can break out of old cultural patterns, there is another way.”  Those newspapers showing signs of success “are those that have pushed harder to change their sales staffs, have pushed digital even at the risk of putting less effort into the old categories that pay the bills, have taken more risks — have fought against the deep ‘inertia’ that many of the executives describe.”

Despite the once-rosy outlook for digital advertising, the study says that has not happened, and that “cultural inertia is a major factor” as most newspapers are just not prioritizing digital ad sales.  As many newspaper executives noted, it’s not easy to shift focus to the digital side, especially when print sales still comprise 92 percent of overall ad revenue.  In terms of the future of newspapers five years from now, the executives said still would be printed and delivered, only less frequently, perhaps even only on Sundays.  Newspapers also would continue to be “diluted” as more layoffs empty out newsrooms.

“In general, the shift to replace losses in print ad revenue with new digital revenue is taking longer and proving more difficult than executives want and at the current rate most newspapers continue to contract with alarming speed,” the report said.

The report, which was issued on the day that the Los Angeles Times put up a pay wall, is ironic.  Ken Doctor, a prominent news industry analyst, said that he thought 20 percent of daily newspapers would have pay walls in place by the end of the year.  By making paying users register, the papers have the ability to gather more information about the reader, better positioning them to target online advertising at a time when print advertising is at its lowest point in 60 years.

Pay wall success stories are few and far between, and the number of doubters is legion.  “The average newspaper might sell online subscriptions to the equivalent of two percent of its print subscribers,” said Alan Mutter, a professor at University of California at Berkeley’s Graduate School of Journalism and a former top editor at the San Francisco Chronicle.  “It’s not turning out to be a very significant revenue stream,” said Mutter, who agrees with the pay wall in general but doesn’t think it will save many newspapers.

Steve Ladurantaye, Media Reporter for the Globe and Mail, notes that “The industry is caught in a trap, the report states, where declining print revenues provide most of the money but digital revenue is the only category seeing growth.  It’s reflected in their sales forces – where print ad reps outnumber digital ad reps 3-to-1.  ‘The shift to replace losses in print ad revenue with new digital revenue is taking longer and proving more difficult than executives want and at the current rate most newspapers continue to contract with alarming speed,’ the report states, adding that the executives they interviewed considered replacing print revenue an ‘existential’ issue.  The biggest challenge is that managers are convinced the ‘old way’ of doing things will salvage what’s left of their ad bases.  ‘Newspaper executives described an industry still caught between the gravitational pull of the legacy tradition and the need to chart a faster digital course.  A number of them worried that their companies simply had too many people – whether it be in the newsroom, the boardroom or on the sales staff – who were too attached to the old way of doing things.

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Fewer Couples Are Going to the Chapel

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

The number of American couples marching down the aisle to get married is in decline, with just 51 percent of adults reporting that they are married, according to the Pew Research Center and the Census Bureau.

The Pew Center’s study determined that new marriages in the United States fell five percent between 2009 and 2010; the slow economy likely was a contributing factor.  Compare the current record low of 51 percent of married adults with the 72 percent who were in wedded unions in 1960, according to the Pew Center.  The median age at first marriage for brides stands at 26.5 and for grooms it is 28.7.  That is the oldest Americans have ever been when they first married.

Researchers noted the United States is not alone in seeing a significant decline in marriage rates; other advanced, post-industrial societies are seeing the same long-term declines.  The Pew Center said that it is “beyond the scope” of the group’s analysis to “explain why marriage has declined.”

Some respondents just don’t like the idea of marriage. Nearly 40 percent of respondents believe that marriage is becoming an archaic institution.  They also report that in 2010, approximately 61 percent of adults who have never been married would like to be one day.

“The most dramatic statistics to me are when you look at the share of younger adults who are married now compared with in the past,” report author D’Vera Cohn, a senior writer at Pew Research Center, said.  “That’s really been where you’ve seen the big decline.”  Pew researchers analyzed U.S. Census data from 1960 and data from the American Community Surveys from 2008 – 2010.

Flat wages are another factor. “The incentive to get married – because you could rely on a man whose real wages would continue to rise, who would get a pension at the end of it – has been undermined as well,” Cohn said.

According to Census Bureau statistics, 7.5 million couples lived together without being married in 2010, a 13 per cent increase when compared with the previous year.  The financial crisis has forced people to move in with partners.  Marriage rates are highest among college graduates (approximately two-thirds).  Less than half of high school graduates are married.

Not surprisingly, divorce is a factor impacting the ranks of the currently married, although it is unclear how important it has been.  Divorce rates rose in the 1960s and 1970s, but have leveled off in the past 20 years.  Approximately 72 percent of adults have been married at least once, down from 85 percent in 1960.

“If current trends continue, the share of adults who are currently married will drop to below half within a few years,” according to the Pew report.  “Other adult living arrangements-including cohabitation, single-person households and single parenthood-have all grown more prevalent in recent decades.”

“Well, it does not mean that marriage is dead,”  said Stephanie Coontz, a historian on family life at Evergreen State College in Washington state.  Many of those 20-somethings will sooner or later tie the knot.  “But what it does bring home to us is that we can no longer pretend that marriage is the central organizing principle of society. We have to take account of the many, many social networks and relationships that people cycle through, marriage being just one of them,” Coontz said.

“This marks a continuation of a long term trend,” said Paul Taylor, executive vice president of the Pew Research Center.  “If this trend continues, we are approaching a turning point where fewer than half of all adults in this country will be married.”

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Generation Gap in Americans’ Net Worth

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011

Households headed by older adults have made impressive gains when compared with those headed by younger adults in their economic well-being over the past 25 years, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. In 2009, households headed by adults aged 65 and older had 42 percent more net worth (assets minus debt) than households headed by their same-aged counterparts had in 1984.  During this same period, the wealth of households headed by younger adults declined.  In 2009, households headed by adults younger than 35 reported 68 percent less wealth than in 1984.

As a result of these trends, in 2009 the typical household headed by someone in the older age group had 47 times as much net wealth as the average household headed by someone younger – $170,494 versus $3,662 in 2010 dollars.  In 1984, this had been a less asymmetrical ten-to-one ratio.  This means that the oldest households in 1984 had median net wealth $108,936 higher than that of the youngest households.  By 2009, the disparity had grown to $166,832.

Writing for CNN Money, Annalyn Censky notes that “So why the growing chasm?  Housing trends have played a major role, the Pew Center said.  While rising home equity helped drive wealth gains for the older generation over a long timeframe, the younger generation has had less time to ride out the housing market’s volatility — especially its most recent boom and bust.  Meanwhile, the younger generation is also taking longer to enter the labor force and get married.  And surging college costs are also leaving them burdened by more student loans than prior generations.”

According to the Pew report, “Most of today’s older homeowners got into the housing market long ago, at ‘pre-bubble’ prices.  Along with everyone else, they’ve been hurt by the housing market collapse of recent years, but over the long haul, most have seen their home equities rise.  For young adults who are in the beginning stages of wealth accumulation, there has been no such luck, at least so far.”

The impact of the Great Recession on individual wealth was taken into account by the Pew Researchers. We don’t know what the future will bring, but things are happening much more slowly for this generation,” said Paul Taylor, director of Pew Social & Demographic Trends and co-author of the analysis.  “If this pattern continues, and this difficult start plays out and slows this generation down, then you start to call into question the basic tenets of the American dream, which is that every generation does better than the one before.”

While the recession hurt people of all ages, the older group was much better sheltered, and saw its median net worth drop just six percent between 2005 and 2009.  Generally speaking, it has increased 42 percent since 1984 when the Census Bureau first began measuring wealth according to age.  The median net worth for the younger-age households fell 55 percent since the recession and 68 percent when compared with 25 years ago.

Net worth consists of the home’s value, possessions and savings, minus debt such as mortgages, college loans and credit-card debt.  Fully 37 percent of younger households reported that they have a net worth of zero or less, nearly double the amount reported in 1984.  That percentage remained at approximately eight percent for households headed by a person 65 or older.  “It makes us wonder whether the extraordinary amount of resources we spend on retirees and their healthcare should be at least partially reallocated to those who are hurting worse than them,” according to Harry Holzer, a labor economist and public policy professor at Georgetown University.

The news isn’t all bad for young people.  For example, they may have more student debt.  That’s good news because it means that more of them are going to college, a choice that will show returns in the long-run, according to the study.  Education is essential  to making money in today’s economy, said Steven Klineberg, a professor of sociology at Rice University.  Unlike in the past, the availability of blue-collar jobs and unions that could boost a worker into the middle class no longer exist.  “The ability to keep learning is a critical requirement,” Klineberg said.

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Meet the Very First Baby Boomer

Wednesday, June 8th, 2011

Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue calls it “America’s silver tsunami.”

The name Kathleen Casey-Kirschling likely doesn’t ring any bells with the majority of Americans.  She holds the singular honor of being the nation’s very first baby boomer, born one minute after midnight on January 1, 1946 in Philadelphia celebrating her 65th birthday on New Year’s Day.  A retired teacher, Casey-Kirschling is the first of approximately 78 million baby boomers who will begin collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits over the next 20 years.  The Pew Research Center reports that approximately 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 every day.  Baby boomers, who were born between 1946 and 1965, are celebrating their 65th birthdays between 2011 and 2030.  Despite a recent Pew survey that found baby boomers feel more downbeat than other generations about their future, Casey-Kirschling is taking a positive approach.  “I’m OK with knowing that I don’t know what tomorrow will bring,” she said.  “I’m going to live for today.  And I’m thankful that I could live for today, and I am healthy.”  Casey-Kirschling retired at 60 and began taking her Social Security benefits at age 62.

In an interview with AARP at the time of her retirement, she said “I don’t work compulsively anymore.  My priorities are now family and friends, and if something’s not fun, I don’t want any part of it.”  Today, the New Jersey resident works part-time, travels with her husband, and spends time with her children and grandchildren.  Because Casey-Kirschling opted to start collecting Social Security at age 62, she receives only about 75 percent of the total amount for which she was eligible –approximately $240 less per month.  If Casey-Kirschling had waited until her 66th birthday, she would have received full benefits; at age 70 she would have received 135 percent of full benefits.

When asked how she deals with her celebrity, Casey-Kirschling said “In the beginning, it was overwhelming.  But I said I’m just going to be who I am and do what I can, especially for Social Security.  They asked me to do public service (ads) for the generation and help baby boomers apply (for benefits) online and get direct deposit.  Whatever I could do, I would try to have a positive impact.  So many things are negative in the nation today.  Like all human beings, we are not a perfect generation.  We certainly created so much, built so much and have an incredible work ethic to this day.”

“Like many of her fellow boomers,  Kathy leads a full and busy life,” said Jim Courtney, Social Security Deputy Commissioner for Communications.  “By choosing direct deposit, Kathy’s benefit is safely and conveniently deposited into her bank account.  No matter where in the country – or the world – Kathy is, her money is as close as the nearest ATM or just a mouse click away through online banking.”

David Walker, formerly the comptroller general of the Government Accountability Office, Congress’ legislative arm, warned that before too long, the Social Security system will have more recipients than it can afford to pay out.  “We face a tsunami of spending due primarily to the retirement of the baby boom generation and rising healthcare costs,” Walker said.  “So what’s happened is we’ve gone from 16 workers paying into Social Security for every person drawing benefits in 1950 to 3.3 to one today, and we’re going down to two to one by the time the boomers retire in big numbers and that’s about where it will stay over the long run.”

“I think I’m just lucky to be at the top of the boom.  I’m just one of many millions and am blessed to have been in this generation and really blessed and to take my Social Security now,” Casey-Kirschling said.

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