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Hungary’s Debt Downgraded to Junk

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012

Yet another European nation – and one not in the Eurozone – is facing a financial crisis now that Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has downgraded its credit rating to junk status. The nation is Hungary, whose status was changed as a result of concerns about proposed policy changes regarding the country’s central bank.  S&P cut its rating on Hungary’s debt to the non-investment grade of BB+ and warned that there could be additional adjustments.  Its negative outlook on the Hungarian front means there is at least a 33 percent likelihood of another downgrade over the next year if Hungary’s fiscal performance worsens.

The lower rating could mean that Hungary has more difficulty borrowing, and may have to pay higher rates on its debt.  Moody’s Investor Service, a rival credit-ratings agency, had already reduced Hungary’s rating to junk status in late November.  According to S&P, policy changes related to Hungary’s central bank will curtail its independence; these changes by necessity complicate the scene for investors.  They’re likely to negatively impact investment and fiscal planning, which will weigh on Hungary’s medium-term growth prospects.  “The downgrade reflects our opinion that the predictability and credibility of Hungary’s policy framework continues to weaken,” S&P said.

Not surprisingly, the European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned about Hungary’s draft law that it says would undermine the independence of the country’s central bank. The government recently introduced proposals to merge Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) with the Financial Supervisory Authority, name a new president who will outrank the current central bank governor and increase the number of members of the governing council.  All of this would be “to the detriment of central bank independence,” the ECB said.  “In particular, by appointing a new president with authority over the Governor of the MNB, who would become the vice-president of the new institution, the personal independence of the MNB’s Governor would be impaired and Article 14.2 of the Statute of the European System of Central Banks concerning the possible reasons for dismissing the Governor of a national central bank would be breached,” the ECB said.  “The Governing Council of the ECB has requested the Hungarian authorities to bring their consultation practice into line with the requirements of European Union law and to respect the obligation to consult the ECB.  Three major revisions of the central bank law in 18 months are incompatible with the principle of legal certainty.”

The independence of the central banks in European nations is enshrined in European Union treaties. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants to use his two-thirds majority in parliament to push through changes in the make-up of the decision-making entities of the MNB, with whom he has frequently disagreed over policy.

According to Business Week, “Hungary will probably overshoot its budget-deficit target next year, the central bank said.  The shortfall may be 3.7 percent of gross domestic product, compared with the government’s 2.5 percent goal, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank said.  The gap may be reduced to 2.6 percent with the ‘complete cancellation’ of budget reserves and assuming no unexpected spending and no shortfall in revenue in 2012.  A decline in risk premium may allow keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at seven percent, the highest in the European Union, or its ‘cautious reduction’, the central bank said, citing the rate-setting Monetary Council.  The rate may have to be ‘permanently’ higher if the pace of disinflation is slower than the bank’s forecast.”

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New Housing Market Showing Some Strength

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

Confidence in American homebuilders rose in December for the third consecutive month, a sign that the housing market is finally stabilizing.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) of builder confidence climbed to 21 — the highest level since May 2010 — from a revised 19 in November.   Economists had projected an index of 20, according to a Bloomberg News survey.  Readings below 50 mean the majority of respondents believe that conditions are poor.

Mortgage rates near record lows are attracting prospective homebuyers.  At the same time, a new wave of foreclosures means a sustained housing recovery could take years.  “We’re just seeing some incremental improvement,” John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston, said.  “It’s too early to say that the worst is over.  It’s too early to say that we’re pulling ourselves out of the morass of housing.”

Builders in the South had the biggest increase, with the index jumping four points to 25 this month.  The West reported a gain to 16 from 15, while the Midwest held steady at 24.  Confidence in the Northeast fell to 15 from 16.

“This is the first time that builder confidence has improved for three consecutive months since mid-2009, which signifies a legitimate though slowly emerging upward trend,” NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said.  “While large inventories of foreclosed properties continue to plague the most distressed markets and consumer worries about job security and the challenges of selling an existing home remain significant factors, builders are reporting more inquiries and more interest among potential buyers than they have seen in previous months.”

Low-ball appraisals are spoiling some deals, even after contracts have been signed.  As a result, some buyers are waiting to buy a new house because they can’t sell their home.  Those positioned to purchase are benefiting from lower prices and rates.  30-year fixed mortgages are 3.94 percent — a record low.  So far, those factors have not boosted new home sales.

The seasonally adjusted index, which parallels closely with single-family housing starts, is designed so that readings over 50 are considered “good.”  This hasn’t been the case since April 2006.

According to NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, “While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets.”

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes registered a third consecutive month of improvement in December.  The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points in the latest month to 22, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months edged up one point to 26.  The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers gained three points and is now at 18, which is its highest level since May of 2008.

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Bill Gates, Sr.: The Rich Must Pay More Taxes

Monday, December 19th, 2011

Bill Gates, Sr., a retired attorney in Washington state, supports a ballot initiative that would require the state’s highest earners — including himself and his son — to pay an income tax.  Currently, the state does not collect personal income taxes.

The father of billionaire Microsoft founder Bill Gates, Jr., believes that the poor pay too much tax, and that the rich don’t pay enough.  Washington’s school system, which is a catalyst for future economic growth in the high-tech state, suffers from too little funding because the wealthy aren’t paying their fair share, according to Gates.  His 1098 initiative — an income tax on adjusted earnings that exceed $400,000 a year per couple or $200,000 for an individual — is drawing protest from Washington business leaders, as well as anti-tax groups.

Initiative 1098 would give tax credits to approximately 80 percent of Washington-based businesses and slash the state share of property taxes by 20 percent for businesses and homeowners.  According to critics, the legislation would harm the economy by taxing the earnings of people who own the businesses — money that would be used to put people back to work.  The opposition’s Defeat 1098 campaign believes that an income tax on 38,400 of the state’s highest earners would take away vital competitive advantages and drive away entrepreneurs.  Even Governor Chris Gregoire’s Commerce Department has publicized Washington’s lack of an income tax in statements about the state’s business climate.

Gates considers Washington state’s tax system to be “dramatically regressive”, something that was proved in 2002 when he led a commission created by the Legislature to study the state tax system.  The commission recommended replacing the sales tax or property tax with an income tax that would rebalance the load.  Gates cited data gathered by the national Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy that show Washington’s poorest 20 percent pay 17 percent of their income in sales, property and other taxes.  By contrast, the wealthiest one percent pays less than four percent.

The initiative would impose a state income tax on individuals earning more than $200,000 and couples earning upwards of $400,000.  In other words, single people would pay a five percent tax on income over $200,000 and nine percent tax if they earn more than $500,000.  Couples would pay five percent over $400,000 and nine percent if they earn a combined income that exceeds $1 million.

“It’s not a matter of picking on someone,” Gates said.  “It’s a matter of correcting to some extent a bad historic situation and arguing — I think absolutely persuasively — that this is a proper source for a serious financial shortfall in our operations, namely the public education system.”

Gates’ proposal also has met opposition from Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, and Jeff Bezos, President of Amazon.com, both of whom donated $100,000 to anti-tax groups.

Another voice of opposition is Stephen Moore, who wrote in the Wall Street Journal, “I wish I had a dollar for every time a wealthy liberal has declared he thinks he should pay more taxes. That list includes Warren Buffett, George Soros, Bill Gates Sr., Mark Zuckerberg and even Barack Obama, who now says that not only should rich people like him pay more taxes, they want to pay more.”

Gates is joined by Berkshire-Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett in calling for higher taxes on the wealthy.  President Obama supports “the Buffett Rule”, a guiding principle to ensure that the rich pay as large a percentage of their income as the middle class.  Some millionaires insist that Buffett doesn’t speak for them.  “There is more of a difference between my financial position as a multi-millionaire and Buffett’s than there is between mine and a guy that makes minimum wage,” one CNN Money reader said.  “Why am I grouped with him and why does he feel he can speak for me?”

Just 24 percent of millionaires said higher taxes on large incomes is the optimal solution, according to a survey from Spectrem Group, a research firm specializing in the finances of affluent Americans.  The largest group of millionaires, 44 percent, believe that a flat-rate tax across all income brackets is the fairest system.

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Banks Getting Healthier

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Bank earnings rose to their highest level in more than four years, while the number of troubled banks declined for the second consecutive quarter.  The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) said the banking industry earned $35.3 billion in the 3rd quarter, an increase from the $23.8 billion reported in the same timeframe last year.  More than 60 percent of banks reported improved earnings.  According to the FDIC, there currently are 844 banks on its confidential “problem”, or roughly 11.5 percent of all federally insured banks.  That was down from 865 between April and June, and was first quarter in five years to show a decline.

“After three years of shrinking loan portfolios, any loan growth is positive news for the industry and the economy,” said Martin Gruenberg, FDIC’s acting chairman.  Lending has not yet reached healthy levels.  So far in 2011, 90 banks have failed.  That’s a significant improvement over the 157 banks that were shuttered last year — the most for one year since the darkest days of the 1992 savings and loan crisis — and the 140 in 2009.

The FDIC’s so-called problem bank list consists of the institutions considered most likely to fail, though few actually are shuttered.  Only 26 of the nation’s 7,436 banks failed in the 3rd quarter, 15 fewer than the same period of 2010.  “The trend has been improving, but the current number of failures and problem institutions remains high by historical standards,” Gruenberg said.

Banks whose assets exceed $10 billion drove of the earnings growth. They account for just 1.4 percent of all banks but accounted for about $29.8 billion of the industry’s earnings in the 3rd quarter.  Those are the biggest banks, such as Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.  The majority of these banks have recovered with help from federal bailout money and record-low borrowing rates.

Writing on MarketWatch, Ronald D. Orol says that “It is unclear whether the reduction in troubled banks on the list is a result of institutional failures or improvements.  In the 3rd quarter there were 26 bank failures and 21 banks dropped off the problem bank list.  In the 2nd quarter there were 22 bank failures and 23 banks came off the problem bank list.  It is possible that a bank fails so fast that it is never on the problem list.  FDIC-insured institutions posted net income of $35.3 billion in the 3rd quarter, an increase of $11.5 billion, or 48 percent, compared to a year earlier.  The profits were at the highest level since the 2nd quarter of 2007, the FDIC said.  However, Martin Gruenberg said that even though the industry is generally profitable, the recovery is ‘by no means’ complete.  He noted that a central concern for the agency is whether banks can generate income from a greater demand for loans, something that is still lacking.  He said that the industry has seen income gains generated from improvements in credit quality and the ability to reduce loss provisions but that to really generate income and revenue, funding for loans is going to have to expand and that ‘depends on the overall economy.’  The key issue is going to be whether there can be a pick up in economic activity and generate demand for loans.  Ongoing distress in real-estate markets and slow growth in jobs and incomes still pose a threat to bank credit quality.”

The majority of banks that have struggled or failed have been small or regional institutions.  They rely a lot on commercial property and development loans, sectors that have lost a lot of money.  As companies closed during the recession, they vacated shopping malls and office buildings financed by those loans.  Nevertheless, large banks are less profitable than they were before the financial crisis hit in the fall of 2008, leading to some sizable layoffs.  Some credit rating agencies have been warning that the European debt crisis could hit the largest American banks.  Financial companies’ stocks have been especially beat up in the stock market’s volatility in recent months.

“We continue to see income growth that reflects improving asset quality and lower loss provisions,” Gruenberg said.  “U.S. banks have come a long way from the depths of the financial crisis.  Bank balance sheets are strong in a number of ways, and the industry is generally profitable, but the recovery is by no means complete.”  The banking industry also saw a 0.5 percent rise in net operating revenue compared with 2010, thanks in part to a $3.2 billion — or 5.8 percent — increase in non-interest income, the first year-over-year increase in nearly two years.  “Absent these unrealized gains, net operating revenue would have posted a year-over-year decline for a third consecutive quarter,” Gruenberg concluded.

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The Fed’s Secret Bank Loans Revealed

Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

In a stunning revelation, Bloomberg has obtained 29,000 pages of Federal Reserve documents detailing the largest bailout in American history.  According to an article that will appear in the January issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine, the “Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on December 5, 2008, their single neediest day.  Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy.  And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates.”

The $7.77 trillion that the central bank made available stunned even Gary H. Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009.  According to Stern, he “wasn’t aware of the magnitude.”  It overshadows the Treasury Department’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program.  When you add up guarantees and lending limits, it becomes clear that the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March, 2009 to rescuing the financial system. That is more than half the value of the U.S. GDP that year.  “TARP at least had some strings attached,” said Representative Brad Miller (D-NC), a member of the House Financial Services Committee.  “With the Fed programs, there was nothing.”

According to Bloomberg’s editors, “Even as they were tapping the Fed for emergency loans at rates as low as 0.01 percent, the banks that were the biggest beneficiaries of the program were assuring investors that their firms were healthy.  Moreover, these banks used money they had received in the bailout to lobby Congress against reforms aimed at preventing the next collapse.  By keeping the details of its activities under wraps, the Fed deprived lawmakers of the essential information they needed to draft those rules. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, for example, was debated and passed by Congress in 2010 without a full understanding of how deeply the banks had depended on the Fed for survival.  Similarly, lawmakers approved the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to rescue the banks without knowing the details of the far larger bailout being run by the Fed.

“The central bank justified its approach by saying that disclosing the information would have signaled to the markets that the financial institutions that received help were in trouble.  That, in turn, would make needy institutions reluctant to use the Fed as a lender of last resort in the next crisis.  Fed officials argue, with some justification, that the program helped avert a much bigger economic cataclysm and that all the loans have now been repaid.”

Derek Thompson, a senior editor at The Atlantic, argues that the Fed’s secret bailout is a sign that it was doing its job.  According to Thompson, “First, you can be furious that the Federal Reserve ‘committed’ $7.7 trillion — a sum of money equal to half of the U.S. economy — to save the financial system.  I understand the shock, but we were at the precipice of catastrophe and that money wasn’t ‘spent’ so much as it was put at risk and subsequently recouped.  The economy has struggled in the three years since, but we avoided meltdown.  The trillions worked.

“Second, you can be furious that the banks made a profit off of their own mistakes — but $13 billion is a small price to pay for staving off Armageddon.  Third, you can be furious that the Federal Reserve went to court to keep this information out of the hands of journalists.  There, I’d agree.  It’s Congress’s job (not the Federal Reserve’s job) to pass laws that govern the banking sector, but Congress needs information to make good decisions about regulating banks and it’s disappointing that the Federal Reserve withheld details about its bailouts while the commission and the Dodd-Frank debate were ongoing.  Fourth, you can be furious that our central bank basically did the right thing when it had to, and its counterpart in Europe won’t — at the risk of a continental meltdown.”

Times’ Massimo Calabresi agrees. According to Calabresi, “But the Fed saved the world economy through all this lending without losing a penny in the process.  And after its initial heavy breathing, the article does give the Fed an opportunity to explain itself.  ‘Supporting financial-market stability in times of extreme stress is a core function of central banks,’ said William B. English, director of the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs.  “Our lending programs served to prevent a collapse of the financial system and to keep credit flowing to American families and businesses.’  In other words, lending money to banks in a crisis is the whole point of the Fed:  saving the world economy by flooding the system with money when it is about to freeze up is exactly what the central bank was created to do.”

The Fed has been lending money to banks since just after it was established in 1913. By the end of 2008, the Fed had created or expanded 11 lending facilities catering to financial firms that were unable to obtain short-term loans from their usual sources.  “Supporting financial-market stability in times of extreme market stress is a core function of central banks,” said William English, director of the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs.  “Our lending programs served to prevent a collapse of the financial system and to keep credit flowing to American families and businesses.”

 

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Home Delinquencies Fall; Foreclosures Rise

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

Fewer borrowers currently are delinquent on their home loans, a Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) report shows.  Curiously, new foreclosures are rising in states like California.  This is evidence that the nation still must endure significant pain before the housing crisis finally comes to an end.  According to some analysts, the nation is only halfway through the wrenching grip of the foreclosure epidemic.  That’s reflected in the housing market, where sales and prices continue to sag despite record low interest rates.  Five years after the crisis began, 7.99 percent of all mortgages were behind by at least one payment in the 3rd quarter but not yet in foreclosure.  Nevertheless, that’s down by nearly half a percentage point from the 2nd quarter and more than one percent when compared with last year.

The percentage of American mortgages that were somewhere in the foreclosure process at the end of the 3rd quarter was 4.43 percent, a slight increase over last year.  The rate of homes in foreclosure was highest in the East and Midwest that route residential repossessions through the courts, with Florida at more than 14 percent and New Jersey at eight percent.

Rather surprisingly, new foreclosures rose to 1.08 percent of all loans from 0.96 percent in the prior three months, according to the MBA. The rate had been declining since the 3rd quarter of 2010, when regulators began investigating robo-signing.  Some of the nation’s largest banks temporarily halted foreclosures while they addressed claims of flaws in their court documents.  The moratoriums clogged the entire foreclosure pipeline as banks investigated their procedures, said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight.  “Banks are starting to speed up the process now that they’ve cleaned up their paperwork,” Newport said.  “We’re seeing the backlog begin to move.”

Unfortunately, the improvement may be short lived.  For the 4th quarter, the pace probably will slow to 2.3 percent, according to the median estimate among 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.  The pace likely will slow to two percent in the first three months of 2012, according to the estimates.  “While the delinquency picture changed for the better in the 3rd quarter, the foreclosure data indicated that we are not out of the woods yet and that the issues continue to vary by geography,” Michael Fratantoni, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s vice president of research and economics, said.

“That’s really just reflecting the modest improvement we’ve seen in the economy broadly and the job market in particular,” Fratantoni said. “Job growth is not what we want it to be, but it’s been good enough to keep the unemployment rate at least level and that’s been beneficial here with fewer people falling behind.”

“While foreclosure activity in September and the 3rd quarter continued to register well below levels from a year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up,” said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.  “Third quarter foreclosure activity increased marginally from the previous quarter, breaking a trend of three consecutive quarterly decreases that started in the fourth quarter of 2010,” according to Saccacio.  “This marginal increase in overall foreclosure activity was fueled by a 14 percent jump in new default notices, indicating that lenders are cautiously throwing more wood into the foreclosure fireplace after spending months trying to clear the chimney of sloppily filed foreclosures.”

Foreclosure were filed on 214,855 U.S. properties in September, a six percent decrease from August and a 38 percent decrease when compared with September of 2010.  September marked the 12th consecutive month where foreclosure activity decreased on a year-over-year basis.

A report issued by the Center for Responsible Lending found that 6.4 percent of mortgages created between 2004 and 2008 ended in foreclosure.  Another 8.3 percent of mortgages are at “immediate, serious risk.”  According to Fratantoni, “Given the pace of foreclosure sales — about one million foreclosure sales a year — it’s a three- or four-year process to get it back to a more typical level of foreclosed properties.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity fell to 77.3 percent of total applications from 78.6 percent the previous week.  The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.1 percent from 5.8 percent of all applications.  In October, 50.6 percent of refinancing applications opted for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 28.8 percent opted for 15-year fixed loans and six percent went with ARMs.  In terms of applications for home purchase mortgages, 85.5 percent were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 6.9 percent for 15-year fixed loans and 5.9 percent for ARMs, the lowest share of that vehicle for purchases since January.

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Italy Asks IMF to Oversee its Debt Reduction Efforts

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has asked for international oversight of his efforts to slash the eurozone’s second-largest debt, even as his unraveling coalition threatens efforts to build a wall against Europe’s debt crisis.  Berlusconi’s government asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to assess its debt-reduction progress, and turned down an offer of financial assistance.

“It hasn’t been imposed, it was requested,” Berlusconi said.  The IMF will carry out quarterly “certifications” of the euro region’s third-largest economy, he said, noting that the current sell-off of Italian debt is “a temporary trend” even as the nation’s borrowing costs soared to record highs.  Berlusconi is under mounting pressure as Italy tries to avoid yielding to the sovereign-debt crisis.

Italy’s 10-year borrowing costs are getting dangerously close to the seven percent level that forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to ask for bailouts.  The yield on the nation’s benchmark 10-year bond surged to a euro-era record of 6.404 percent, the highest since the creation of the single currency.  “If the current Greek tragedy is not to turn into an Italian tragedy, with far more serious and far-reaching consequences for the eurozone, Berlusconi must resign immediately,” Marc Ostwald, a fixed-income strategist at Monument Securities Ltd., said.  Berlusconi may be “remembered as the architect of Italy’s descent into an economic inferno.”

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde hopes that quarterly monitoring will start by the end of November to verify that the reforms Berlusconi promised are implemented.  “It’s verification and certification if you will, of implementation of a program that Italy has committed to,” she said. “It’s one of the best ways to have an independent view…to verify that promised measures are actually implemented.”  She agreed that Italy doesn’t need IMF funding.  “The problem that is at stake — and that was clearly identified both by the Italian authorities and its partners — is a lack of credibility of the measures that are announced,” according to Lagarde.  “The typical instrument that we would use is a precautionary credit line.  Italy does not need the funding that is associated with such instruments so the next best instrument is fiscal monitoring, which is what we have identified.”

Lagarde isn’t certain that the proposed reforms are credible. “The problem that is at stake and that was clearly identified both by the Italian authorities and by its partners is a lack of credibility of the measures that were announced,” Lagarde said.  Additionally, the IMF will provide funds to stimulate Italy’s economy, although under strict conditions.

Will Berlusconi’s regime survive this crisis?  “Historically, technocrat governments in Italy have been able to pass pro-growth structural reforms, including politically difficult labor market reforms,” said Barclays Capital analyst Fabio Fois.  Governments such as those led by Carlo Azeglio Ciampi and Lamberto Dini – who had served as central bankers — in the early 1990s saved Italy from financial crises even worse than the present one.  “I think the political parties would have a big incentive to go through the painful policy adjustment now, before the next election due in 2013, so that whoever wins won’t have to do it later,” Fois said.

Berlusconi seemed almost nostalgic for the days when the lira was Italy’s currency. “You don’t get much in your supermarket trolley for €80 today, whereas you used to get a lot for 80,000 lire,” he said.

He insisted that Italy’s economy is generally prospering.  “The restaurants and vacation spots are always full, nobody thinks there is a crisis,” he said, noting that, considering its low household debt levels, Italy has Europe’s second-strongest economy, after Germany and was stronger than France or the U.K.  The country’s €1.9 trillion in public debt, the equivalent of nearly 120 percent of GDP, was a legacy problem, had not grown in the past 20 years, and had been consistently serviced, Berlusconi said.

Berlusconi admitted that his government “might have made a mistake” in assuming the public debt was sustainable without more aggressive fiscal and reform action.  When asked what he thought about frequent warnings from European Union partners that Italy demonstrate credibility with the promised reforms, Berlusconi said the criticism reflected prejudice about past Italian behavior.  “If we don’t enact the reforms Italy will be in trouble,” he said.  “But we will enact them.”

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Generation Gap in Americans’ Net Worth

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011

Households headed by older adults have made impressive gains when compared with those headed by younger adults in their economic well-being over the past 25 years, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. In 2009, households headed by adults aged 65 and older had 42 percent more net worth (assets minus debt) than households headed by their same-aged counterparts had in 1984.  During this same period, the wealth of households headed by younger adults declined.  In 2009, households headed by adults younger than 35 reported 68 percent less wealth than in 1984.

As a result of these trends, in 2009 the typical household headed by someone in the older age group had 47 times as much net wealth as the average household headed by someone younger – $170,494 versus $3,662 in 2010 dollars.  In 1984, this had been a less asymmetrical ten-to-one ratio.  This means that the oldest households in 1984 had median net wealth $108,936 higher than that of the youngest households.  By 2009, the disparity had grown to $166,832.

Writing for CNN Money, Annalyn Censky notes that “So why the growing chasm?  Housing trends have played a major role, the Pew Center said.  While rising home equity helped drive wealth gains for the older generation over a long timeframe, the younger generation has had less time to ride out the housing market’s volatility — especially its most recent boom and bust.  Meanwhile, the younger generation is also taking longer to enter the labor force and get married.  And surging college costs are also leaving them burdened by more student loans than prior generations.”

According to the Pew report, “Most of today’s older homeowners got into the housing market long ago, at ‘pre-bubble’ prices.  Along with everyone else, they’ve been hurt by the housing market collapse of recent years, but over the long haul, most have seen their home equities rise.  For young adults who are in the beginning stages of wealth accumulation, there has been no such luck, at least so far.”

The impact of the Great Recession on individual wealth was taken into account by the Pew Researchers. We don’t know what the future will bring, but things are happening much more slowly for this generation,” said Paul Taylor, director of Pew Social & Demographic Trends and co-author of the analysis.  “If this pattern continues, and this difficult start plays out and slows this generation down, then you start to call into question the basic tenets of the American dream, which is that every generation does better than the one before.”

While the recession hurt people of all ages, the older group was much better sheltered, and saw its median net worth drop just six percent between 2005 and 2009.  Generally speaking, it has increased 42 percent since 1984 when the Census Bureau first began measuring wealth according to age.  The median net worth for the younger-age households fell 55 percent since the recession and 68 percent when compared with 25 years ago.

Net worth consists of the home’s value, possessions and savings, minus debt such as mortgages, college loans and credit-card debt.  Fully 37 percent of younger households reported that they have a net worth of zero or less, nearly double the amount reported in 1984.  That percentage remained at approximately eight percent for households headed by a person 65 or older.  “It makes us wonder whether the extraordinary amount of resources we spend on retirees and their healthcare should be at least partially reallocated to those who are hurting worse than them,” according to Harry Holzer, a labor economist and public policy professor at Georgetown University.

The news isn’t all bad for young people.  For example, they may have more student debt.  That’s good news because it means that more of them are going to college, a choice that will show returns in the long-run, according to the study.  Education is essential  to making money in today’s economy, said Steven Klineberg, a professor of sociology at Rice University.  Unlike in the past, the availability of blue-collar jobs and unions that could boost a worker into the middle class no longer exist.  “The ability to keep learning is a critical requirement,” Klineberg said.

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Retailers Making it Easier to Shop Until You Drop on Black Friday

Wednesday, November 16th, 2011

Black Friday – the day after Thanksgiving notable for its power shopping – just got longer as several leading national retailers announced plans to open at midnight. Instead of sleeping off that turkey coma, throngs of shoppers will be waiting in line at Macy’s and Target, both of which will open four hours earlier than normal.

“We’ve been looking at our hours and demand as the holiday approaches and we think the customer will respond,” Macy’s spokesman Jim Sluzewski said.  “In dollars and cents, it probably gives the retailers that are opening extra early another fraction of a day’s sales,” said Scott Rothbort, finance professor at Seton Hall’s Stillman School of Business.  “But it does engender publicity and in this environment that is very valuable.”

“People want to shop through the night,” said Martine Reardon, Macy’s executive vice president of marketing.  She said the expanded hours were in response to customers’ requests.  One year ago, Macy’s opened eight stores at midnight, and the rest at 4 a.m.  According to Reardon, the midnight openings were highly successful.

Retailers have been extending their Black Friday hours for several years; additionally they’re trying to outdo each other by announcing some of their best deals weeks in advance.  They also are responding to shoppers who strategize bargain-hunting weeks in advance.  Already, Black Friday circulars are starting to be leaked to deal sites like Blackfriday.com and Blackfriday2011.com. Just a few years ago, stores were secretive about their discounts and hours until a few days before Thanksgiving.

Some retail industry experts think the early openings are a bad idea. The news is not good for workers, many of whom are desperate for jobs.  “What these retailers have to worry about is: Are they going to have an employee revolt?” said retail analyst Britt Beemer, chairman of America’s Research Group.  “You could be pushing people to the limit of what they are willing to accept.”  Beemer’s research suggests this Black Friday will be the biggest ever, with 50 percent or more of consumers heading out to shop the day after Thanksgiving.  And for the sake of the craziest shoppers, this year’s deals should be worth losing sleep over.

Writing in the International Business Times, Cavan Sieczkowski said that “But with the current unstable economic climate, stores are planning ahead for Black Friday sales and hoping that an early start will allow them to capitalize on increased consumer spending. On Black Friday 2010, retail spending hit $10.69 billion in one day.”

“Consumers are really walking a tightrope here.  They don’t have much room and it’s easy for them to lose balance with very modest shifts in hiring, the cost of food and everything,” said Steve Blitz, senior economist, ITG Investment Research in New York.

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Harrisburg, PA, Goes Broke

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Pennsylvania’s capital city, Harrisburg,  filed for a rare Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, listing debts of $500 million and assets of $100 million, according to an attorney for the city council.  Mark D. Schwartz said he filed the documents by fax to a federal bankruptcy court.  Such a filing could not be confirmed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Harrisburg.  The filing comes on the heels of the city council’s 4-3 vote Tuesday night to seek bankruptcy protection.  “This was a last resort,” said Schwartz.  “They’re at their wits end.”

“They were tired of being humiliated and denigrated,” Schwartz said, referring to the four council members who voted for a bankruptcy filing.  Chapter 9 is “a much better forum if you really want to address the financial problems of the city,” Schwartz noted.  Chapter 9 bankruptcy allows the financial reorganization of cities, towns, taxing districts, counties, school districts and municipal utilities.

Unfortunately, this is a scenario that other cash-strapped cities across the country could face in the future.  This comes on the heels of Topeka, KS, repealing a law against domestic violence because of the cost of prosecuting offenders.

“This really is our only option out there, ” Councilman Brad Koplinski said. “I believe this is the only thing that will work.”  Controller Dan Miller said that Harrisburg had attempted to tackle the debt problem for years and that he felt the state of Pennsylvania had tried to “railroad” the city’s citizens.  “It’s unfortunate that it came to this,” Miller said.  In June, the Pennsylvania legislature passed a bill saying bankruptcy would result in the loss of state aid, and added an amendment to the bill in September that permits a state takeover of Harrisburg.  The city must repay $310 million in bonds and restructure its debt, as well as reimburse Dauphin County and insurer Assured Guaranty Municipal, which both made payments that the city missed on its incinerator project.

“The size of the outstanding bond debt is overwhelming,” according to the bankruptcy filing.  “Negotiations are impracticable with one group of creditors where negotiations with another key group have hit an impasse.”  Harrisburg’s bondholders include Ambac Financial Group, Inc., with more than $70 million of revenue bonds, and Covanta Holding Corporation, with about $120 million of bonds and advances of funds.

“The city meets the ‘generally not paying’ definition of insolvency, because it has repeatedly failed to pay the guaranteed incinerator bond debt as it has become due,” according to Harrisburg’s filing.  “Under the guarantees the city would need to cover a combined $83 million of past due payments and the 2011 debt service.”

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